Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 5/11/25 – By Eric Solomon

Day 2 of the 2025 Monmouth Park Meet is highlighted by the Serena’s Song Stakes, which features the winner of the 2024 Grade 1 Alabama Stakes, Power Squeeze. That race drew a field of six and will be the 5th race of the afternoon. The forecast is calling for a picture perfect spring day at the Jersey Shore. The races were taken off the turf yesterday after a rainy Friday, but with dry and windy conditions on Saturday, I think we’ll see them compete on the grass for the first time this season today. Paco Lopez picked up right where he left off, winning four races on Opening Day. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT). 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The day will begin with a beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. All seven runners in this contest qualified under the N2L condition. Several of these runners seem to have an aversion to winning, which makes this one a bit of a head scratcher. I landed on Fully Committed (#7) in the outside stall. He broke his maiden four starts ago at Parx, sitting close to a slow pace and drawing clear in a $16K maiden claiming race there. He ran in starter allowance races in his next three starts, where he finished off the board each time as a considerable longshot. He wasn’t embarrassed in those races, but he never had an impact on the outcome either. This is probably the right level of competition for him and he’s generally more consistent than his rivals in this race. He’s trained by Silvino Ramirez, who also sends out Magical Road (#4). I didn’t love his last race when facing beaten $12,500 claimers at Parx, but he was acting up before the race, so hopefully that can offer a reasonable excuse for that sluggish effort. Prior to that race, he had a decent string of races that would likely allow him to be competitive at this level of competition. On deeper tickets, I’ll use the Charles Town invader, Bolt d’Plata (#1). There are races in his running lines from 2024 that would likely be good enough to win this race rather easily. He left the New York circuit and ran three times with bottom maidens in West Virginia, finally breaking through after failing as the heavy favorite in his first two tries. Daniel Siculietano is a new face to the Monmouth Park backside this season and he’ll send out this five year old who was gelded after his maiden breaking score. He is trending in a better direction, so his ceiling might be higher than some of the others in this race. This is a stronger field than what he was seeing at Charles Town, so the class test will be called into question. If his odds float up from his 5-1 morning line number, I’d be willing to take a shot. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this optional $12,500 claiming/$6,250 starter allowance race. Royal Seamstress (#6) ran a big time race when making her first start of the season here last summer. Prior to that race, her form was tailing off a bit, so perhaps the change of scenery worked in her favor. She was a winner at a similar level of competition back in December at Laurel. Claudio Gonzalez hasn’t been known for getting off to the quickest starts here, as his barn caught fire in the middle of the meet in the last two seasons. However, these are the kinds of horses that he often wins with here. Over the last three years, he’s won with 14% of his runners at Monmouth that last raced elsewhere. Marion Grace (#7) is the other logical play in this race. She ran second in allowance company at Penn National nine days ago. This is a quick turnaround, but she’s had races in relative close proximity to each other in the past. Even though she’s not traveling a great distance, she had to ship to Grantville, PA for her last race, which is about two hours from her Parx base. She likely came back after that race and is now shipping about an hour to Oceanport, NJ. Perhaps that’s not such a big deal, but as a horse who is likely to be favored in this race, it is something to think about. 

Race 3:

The brand new Mid-Card Pick 5 begins with this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race where they’ll sprint 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Hello Sunshine (#5) is one of a few three year olds in this race, but he’s the lone two-time winner entered here. Everyone else qualified under the N2L condition. Final Drama (#1) is an interesting runner in this race for Michael Simone. He broke his maiden in a gate to wire effort with $10K maiden claimers on the dirt at Tampa last month. He came back ten days later where he finished third at this level on the dirt, pairing his Beyer from his maiden score. He’s the first foal to run from a dam that was a three time winner, but was 0-4 on the turf. The sire was very good early on, winning a one mile grass stakes race here at Monmouth by over ten lengths. He hasn’t covered a ton of mares, but he does have two winners from four horses that have tried the turf. He has good speed, so the rail draw out of the chute should give him an edge. Obviously, he has to take to the turf, but I think this one has a decent shot in this spot. Betta Go Go (#6) is the one to beat here for Claudio Gonzalez. We often see horses in the Mid-Atlantic region that might prefer the turf, but they’ll race over the winter on the dirt in order to pay the bills. This one was competitive in some better dirt races, but she failed to break through. She has 16 starts on the dirt, with 0 wins but 12 in the money finishes. Her turf efforts have been more fruitful though, breaking her maiden at Laurel in November and having three other in the money efforts in five total starts. I expect him to have dead aim on the pacesetter here, but it’s going to be hard to take too short of a price on a horse that has only one win in 25 trips to the track. 

Race 4:

Beaten $7,500-$6,500 claimers will go six furlongs here. All eight runners entered in this spot qualified under the N2L condition. Noble Force (#3) looked promising when he absolutely demolished a maiden two year old field here on debut back in June. It’s been a disappointing run since then though for this Cairo Prince colt. There are gaps between running lines, so soundness could be an issue here. However, he’s facing an overmatched field here where he shouldn’t have an issue making the early lead. I think he’s going to prove to be too good for these. This Time Yes (#1) is the backup for me in this spot. He broke his maiden last out at Tampa when making his 12th career start. He has been slowly rounding into better form and I think he’s one that could be making headway as some of the other speed and fade types begin to back out of the picture. 

Race 5, The $100K Serena’s Song Stakes:

Four of the six runners in this 1 mile and 70 yard stakes contest are cross-entered in other races, so the potential for this race to fall apart was real. However, Takethemoney (#2), Catherine Wheel (#5), and Morning Matcha (#6), all scratched out of the Ruffian Stakes yesterday, likely in favor of this spot today. Beach Daze (#3) is the longest shot on the board, and she is entered in an allowance race at Parx tomorrow. She’s a New Jersey bred and either spot would be a decent prep race for her to make her 2025 debut, as she is likely going to be targeting the Smart N Classy Handicap for fellow Jersey Breds in three weeks. However, the horse they’re all going to have to deal with here is the 2024 Alabama winner, Power Squeeze (#1). She had a strong three year old season, winning three graded stakes races and five stakes races overall. She struggled behind Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion and then went to the sidelines for a few months. She just missed in the Rampart Stakes and then had a very ambitious two race stretch at Gulfstream where she faced the boys in some top tier races. She finished off the board behind White Abarrio in the Pegasus World Cup in January and then tangled with him again in the Ghostzapper Stakes on Florida Derby Day, finishing a distant second. She did finish a length better than Tuscan Sky, who is a nice Todd Pletcher four year old male runner. She’s back with fillies and mares and this feels like a nice spot to set her up for a shot at another Grade 1 score in the Ogden Phipps at Saratoga next month. With Thorpedo Anna faltering in the La Troienne and that race coming back with some very light figures, she certainly seems like a horse that could be on the precipice of making a run in this division. She’s going to be a short price and while there’s some nice horses that are challenging her here, I think her class will get her home first. Both Takethemoneyhoney (#2) and Catherine Wheel (#5) are some up and coming four year old fillies that have been very impressive in limited opportunities thus far. Both will be trying two turns for the first time today and they’re being asked to do so against a Grade 1 winner. I’m more interested in Takethemoneyhoney because I think she’ll be the controlling speed, but I also think she’s likely to offer a little more value than Catherine Wheel, since the latter is trained by Chad Brown. Takethemoneyhoney is sired by the multiple graded stakes winner Golden Lad. The dam actually dominated this race in 2019, but her number was taken down for a bumping incident earlier in the race that day. Catherine Wheel got her nose down in front of her at Aqueduct in allowance company when going a one turn mile two starts ago. Both fillies went to Laurel after that and ran well. I think the pace and post advantage at the two turn trip will allow her to outfinish her rival in this spot and allow her to be a formidable opponent for the favorite. 

Race 6:

Seven are entered in this $30K-$25K N2X claiming race. There are three, three year olds that are multiple winners in this one. God With Us (#1) and El Medianoche (#6) are both two-time winners and Cojelo Pa Ti (#7) has three wins in eight career starts. The other four runners are older runners that qualified for this race under the N2L condition. I think the outside post might work in favor of Cojelo Pa Ti in this race. He ran very well from an outside draw three back and horses with that outside trip while pressing the lead did well here yesterday.. He’s been down on the rail at Parx in his last two starts, which can be a tricky place at times on that oval. He was winner in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race there two back, which was his third straight score there. He faltered there last time though, fading to 4th while running at the same level. He drops in class a bit for his local debut. Michael Pino comes into this meet winning 36% of his races in 2025, so everything this barn is sending out is worth paying attention to. Javier Castellano is in town to ride Power Squeeze in the feature, but he’ll hang around a little longer to ride a few other horses today. One of them is God With Us for Kelly Breen. He was claimed for $20K at Tampa in a race where he cleared the N2L condition two starts ago. Breen kept him in a protected spot last out where he was a little flat while racing in between rivals. He drops in class, but still is racing for a tag that is greater than what he was claimed for. I tried to beat Paco Lopez and Jamie Ness outright in a few races yesterday, and that didn’t go so well. As a result, I’ll likely wind up covering my bases with J J Valentin (#2). He ran last weekend at Parx and was dull in starter allowance competition. He was more competitive in races at Laurel at a similar level over the winter. He is a New Jersey bred that is eligible for the first level allowance condition, and those races can be a little light early in the season. I have some questions, but the human connections are tough to consistently bet against. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. I like Avatal Hero (#4) in this spot. Most of the contenders in this race are lacking early speed, so she could be in a spot to run away and hide from this field. She has four starts in turf route races and three of them were pretty good. She was a close third at this level at the Meadowlands last fall and she followed up that effort with a nice win at Delaware. She was competitive against a good group of $20K claimers at Gulfstream a few starts back. Her last few starts have been lacking, so her current form does come into question. I’m also a little curious to see how she’ll respond if the longshot Onthisharvestmoon (#7) tries to wing it early on. Regardless, I see her as the most likely winner of this race. Up Her Sleeve (#8) is another runner that is not in the best current form, however, she does feel like she fits with this group. She had three straight wins at Tampa over the winter before finishing off the board in her last four tries. One of her eight career wins came on this course, so perhaps that could wake her up a bit. Girly the Butcher (#3) is a familiar face at Monmouth Park, She’s competed 11 times over this course, winning two times. She had six straight second place finishes dating back to September before clearing the N3L condition.two starts ago. She moved a little early last out at Tampa and flattened out finish 4th. She doesn’t win a lot, but she is fairly consistent, which does feel meaningful with this group. 

Race 8:

A field of 13 has been assembled for this New Jersey bred maiden special dash at 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. Chuck Spina was 0-4 with his Jersey breds yesterday, but he had two fillies run strong races, only to come up just a bit short. He sends out Livaliscious (#5) in this race, making his first start since finishing 10th in one of the stronger New Jersey bred two year old races last season. He took some money at the windows in that large field, and Paco Lopez saw fit to ride on debut. He was chasing a fast pace that day and folded early. He’s had the winter to mature and he fired a strong bullet work here last week. The dam has produced multiple winners, so I do think he’s a candidate to improve. Frankie Pennington had a winner here yesterday and he’s looking to keep the momentum going. The logical favorite is Hydrus (#10), who was sired by Vekoma. He was green but sharp in his debut at Colonial where he was in chase mode most of the race. He was third and was placed second after a disqualification. The runner-up turned winner has gone on to win twice at Finger Lakes in allowance company since that score. This colt tried the turf and ran well in open company to be 5th at Tampa. There are a lot of positive trainer angles with Derek Ryan as he drops in class, but runs for a larger purse. These are the two runners that make the most sense here. 

Race 9:

The last turf race of the day is a N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. While I’m not crazy about post nine, I think Card Trick (#9) has a big chance in this race. He was passed late to finish 5th in the Henry Clark Stakes in his most recent start. If you draw a line through his three stakes tries, he has some very solid and consistent races on the turf. He was a winner in N2X allowance company at Tampa two starts ago, but because of the purse structure there, he’s eligible to run at the N1X condition here at Monmouth. He wants to be forward, which was a good thing for much of the meet on this course, especially in races out of the chute. I expect him to be very tough in this spot. One Time Willard (#5) is the backup for me in this spot. He’s a six year old New Jersey bred that is looking to clear the open N1X condition today. He has several strong efforts over this course and he’s coming here off a strong effort in starter allowance company at Gulfstream last time out. Paco Lopez taking the mount for Kelly Breen feels like a plus here. 

Race 10:

Opening weekend ends with an $8K-$7K N4L claiming race for three year olds and up going one mile on the dirt. Le Griffon (#7) has the outside post in this race, but he might have enough early foot to clear and set the tempo here. If not, he should be in a strong stalking position, ahead of his main contenders here. While his best work has come on the grass, he’s shown that he’s plenty capable on the main track. I think he’s the one that they;ll be chasing home here. On deeper tickets here, Lovely Ride (#6) makes some sense. She was dull in her latest try, but there are some sharp races in her running lines. She might be forced to chase the top pick in this race, which is less than ideal. He’s been sharp enough at Tampa over the winter to consider though. 

Final 2024 Meet Statistics/Notes:

Top Pick Winners, 106/483 (21.9%), $728.80, $1.51 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. Quantifying the raw data, which is listed below, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

Post Position Data

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet, (12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

Post Position Data

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)

Data for Winners Last Start

Another data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners were very strong here last season with 18 of 68 winners last running in Oldsmar, Florida. NYRA runners that are showing up here have not been faring as well as they were a few years ago