Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/15/25 – By Eric Solomon

Racing continues at Monmouth Park with an eight race Friday afternoon program. Two year old fillies will go long for the first time this season in the 3rd race, which is a maiden special weight race going one mile over the turf course. As per usual on Fridays, the rails will be set at 36 feet and the first post race of the day will be at 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The day begins with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. New faces are often sexy picks in races like this, and Fuego K (#3) fits that mold. She changed barns and now makes her New Jersey debut after seven career starts in Louisiana. Her five races on the turf are clearly better than her two dirt races. There’s little early speed to speak of this race, so she should have every opportunity to sit a nice trip, either on the lead or stalking the pace. She didn’t have the best of trips two back, which was her last try on the turf at Evangeline. She was a little flat-footed from the gate and wound up being wide throughout the contest. She was in a tight spot going into the first turn and had to move early to try to find a way to save a little bit of ground on the second turn. The tiring front came out and blocked her path at the top of the stretch and she was forced to switch out. I do like that she kept grinding in that race to finish 4th, beaten two lengths, when she had every right to pack it in late. The inside draw and the lack of early speed should make this a better spot for her. Samuel Marin in the saddle is a plus as well. Jorge Delgado adds blinkers for Princess Irene (#4), who is coming off a respectable effort to finish second at this level last time out. She went off at 3-1 when dropping into this condition for the first time.She was three wide on both turns, which is never great when running at this configuration. Much like with the top pick, I do appreciate how well she battled in the stretch, despite covering more ground than the winner and the third place finisher that day. She gets a better post and the blinkers should help her more forward, in order to secure a better position early on. Footnote (#5) feels like the horse that might get the some attention at the windows in this race. She’s making her third start off the layoff after shipping her from Southern California. She’s dropping in class, but she doesn’t have much tactical speed and her local efforts have not been great. Instead, I’ll back up with Jam’s Paper Moon (#7), who has a pair of respectable efforts at this condition. Marin going to the top pick after riding this filly in her last two starts, isn’t a great look. However, she’s been competitive and with the right trip, things could go her way.

Race 2:

Seven are entered in this open $6,250 claiming race going six furlongs on the main track. This race runs through Magical Warrior (#4), who figures to be a short price while dropping back in for a tag. He was claimed for $5K earlier in the meet and since then, he’s had three starts, all coming in starter allowance company. He won the first and finished third in the last two. After a mid-meet lull, business has been picking up for Jamie Ness again here. This feels like a reasonable drop in class to me and I think he’s going to be awfully tough to beat in this spot. On paper, Cathedral Beach (#2) feels like the one best suited to beat the top pick, however, there are some things that are concerning to me. He was pulled up and taken to the vet via the equine ambulance on Opening Day here. He was on a steady diet of allowance races going into that race. He’s had some works scattered since that race, but doesn’t have one recorded in a month. Now he’s taking a steep drop in class, while facing a rival that is in decent form. I’ll pass on him and use Jebologist (#5) as the backup. Michael Pino has great numbers first off the claim and he retains the services of his regular rider, apprentice Bryan Torres. He finished on top in a similar spot at Parx last out, but his number was taken down after ducking out and bothering another horse that day. He might be better suited for second in this spot, but he could get there with a big enough bump from the trainer switch.

Race 3:

As has been the case with many of the maiden special weight races at this meet, New York trainers are making their presence in this one mile turf test for two year old fillies. George Weaver has a pair of runners, but I’m more interested in Starlit Sky (#3) in this race. She has two turn experience on the turf, going one mile at this distance in July at Saratoga. She was battling for the lead before backing out late to finish 6th. She’s facing a softer group in this race, and none of the others have experience at this distance. The course has been kind to front end runners, especially at this distance and configuration. I think she proves to be the best in this spot. Mike Dini has a pair of runners for Ballybrit Stable. While Radar Loop (#7) drew into the body of the field, Bramble Blast (#9) did not. However, she’s the only AE, so should Dini opt to scratch Radar Loop, this filly would be able to participate. Bramble Blast feels like the better runner from this barn. She debuted at five furlongs on the turf and wasn’t terrible when finishing 2nd to a George Weaver trained runner. While that might be her fate once again today, I do see her as a filly that will improve when stretching out. Chad Brown has been very good with his first time starters at this meet, but his numbers with two year olds making their debuts aren’t as good as his overall numbers with firsters. He’ll send out Fitz Right (#4), who was purchased for $200K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2024. He’s won 13% of his races over the last five years with his two year olds at first asking, which is certainly a fine percentage. However, it’s below most of his averages in most of his demographics. Both local riders that typically ride for him are committed elsewhere, which isn’t the best sign. Sonny Leon will ride for him for the first time at Monmouth. He’s sired by Charlatan, who has one winner with two starters that have debuted on the turf. I’ll also back up with the other Weaver here, My Blue Line (#2). Weaver has struggled with debuting runners at two turns, while thriving with his turf sprinters. This filly probably is bred more for the turf than any other runner in this field. She’s coming in from Saratoga, so the fact that he doesn’t want her to debut tells me that she might not be very high in the pecking order for the barn. However, there’s not many horses here that appear to be bred to love the lawn.

Race 4:

Seven are entered in this $40K-$30K maiden  claiming contest for two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. King of the Cross (#1) has been working up a storm at Parx. While it’s possible those works are serving the purpose of putting this horse on display for a prospective buyer, a 46:2 work at Parx is a serious AM drill. Good Samaritan only wins with 7% of his debuting first time starters in dirt sprints and the dam didn’t show much on the racetrack. However, there’s little else that jumps off the page with this group, so he’ll lend as the top pick. It’s the Muscleman (#2) is another fascinating horse in this race. This gelded son of Thousand Words has three recorded works at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana, and off those efforts, his trainer has opted to send him to the Jersey Shore for this race which carries a $26K purse. Perhaps the goal is for this horse that only cost $7K to be claimed for $40K. He’s one of four runners from his barn racing here today. It’s an odd time in the meet to try to establish yourself as a trainer, but perhaps this is more of an exploratory business trip as Ramirez has had history of racing in Delaware. Thousand Words gets 13% winners from debuting horses in dirt sprints. While the dam has never foaled a debut winner, her five runners that have made it to the track have amassed 22 wins in 169 career starts. Kelly Breen sends out Grande Felino (#3), who is the morning line favorite. He’s a New York bred, and with the money available for horses bred in the Empire State at Saratoga, I’m always a little cautious when they show up here at Monmouth. The works are competitive for a barn that is more than capable of winning with runners on debut though. 

Race 5:

We’ll head back to the lawn for this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Serene Kathleen (#8) won her second career last out, which came at this level. The other runners that entered in this race qualified under the N2L condition. This race feels like it’s going to come down to the morning line favorite, Runway Lights (#3) or Serene Kathleen. We’ve seen 11 starts from Runway Lights and we basically know who this horse is. When she dropped in class to the $16K maiden claiming level, she won with ease. She’s been competitive with $25K N2L claimers, but she struggled when moving up in class in her two races after that. She runs well when she’s well placed, and she appears to meet that criteria today. Serene Kathleen beat many of these ladies last time out with a solid stalking trip at this distance and course configuration. She had an outside draw that day and was still good enough to get the job done in her second start off the layoff. She makes her third start off the layoff today after pairing her Beyers in her first two tries. She seems to be eligible to take a step forward today. I think the 5-1 morning line figure feels like a bit of a pipe dream. Both runners are A line plays for me, but I’m struggling to guess what the odds disparity between these two will be when they go into the starting gate. My guess is that there’s going to be enough money coming in on Serene Kathleen to keep the price on Runway Lights within reason, which would lead me to make the latter the top pick. A deeper saver is one Jose Ramirez’s four runners on this card, Imelda’s Saver (#7). She ran well in her turf debut after breaking her maiden in a woefully slow off  the turf sprint race at Evangeline last time out. If she can build off that race, she could be dangerous, but she feels more like a total X-factor in this race. 

Race 6:

While the early part of this card feels like it could be on the chalky side, I see this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race  as a wide open contest that could be ripe for an upset. Hatmaker Gizmo (#4) is the top pick for me in this race. He’s cutting back to a sprint after some dull efforts when going two turns in his last few starts. He was claimed by Jose Sanchez, who is 3-4 with runners first off the claim since the start of 2024. He’s 5-8 with runners first off the claim when racing at Monmouth over the last five years. He was gelded since bis last dull effort and he’s three races removed from a strong win in $10K N2L claiming company at Penn that would likely be good enough to beat this group. Nicole’s King (#3) and Mystic Lute (#5) saw each other in their last starts at Parx. Mystic Lute finished in front of Nicole’s King that day and that one probably has a little more upside. However, I do respect that both of Nicole’s King’s wins came on this oval last year. While he might be better in two turn races, he’s been competitive in his last two sprints. I’ll give him a narrow edge over Mystic Lute, who has less races. He runs for a high percentage barn and feels like one that could easily win here. I not sure what kind of price is going to be on the table though.

Race 7:

The Late Double begins with a $16K-$14K N3X claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. All of the runners in this race qualified under the N3L condition. Trying to figure out who is going to set the pace in this one is a bit tricky. My best guess is that the New Jersey bred, Micro Brewsky (#2) is going to be sent from the inside with Samy Camacho. He was forward when breaking from the rail and in an 11 horse maiden allowance race where he finished on top last summer. He cleared the N2L condition at Tampa before shipping here. His first start in state bred N1X company went well, but he faltered last out in a sprint race. He wants to go two turns and while it’s probably less than ideal that he’s a New Jersey bred that has missed two of the five months of racing in this state, Derek Ryan does very well with horses coming back off this rest pattern. I think he can set a soft pace and clear this condition today. Lake Chapala (#6) is where I’ll back up. He ran well to be 4th when drawing a wide post in a full field at this condition last out. He was wide throughout and made an early move before flattening out late. He cleared the N2L condition two starts back and he ran well enough to be competitive at this level. The pace scenario might be working against him, but this four year son of Unified has developed into a consistent, hard-trying runner. 

Race 8:

The day ends with a beaten $40K-$30K claiming race for three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. God With Us (#3) is a two-time winner, while the other six runners in the nightcap qualified under the N2L condition. While there are some things that concern with Social Hour (#6), who is the morning line favorite shipping here for Rick Dutrow, I think this a much bigger class drop than it looks to be on paper. Several of the local runners that are filling out this race have competed in some fields that were scratched down and, as a result, lacking in quality and depth for the condition they were in. Social Hour was competitive in starter allowance company during the Belmont at the Big A meet, but the water got deeper last month at that level at Saratoga. He didn’t have the best of trips, which certainly didn’t help his chances, but it could offer a mild excuse for one of his weaker recent efforts. He has tactical speed for Marin to put him in a winning position from the jump, and Lasix will be added for the first time on race day. I’ll use Frosted Bull (#7) as a backup in this spot. He had no business winning the maiden allowance race that he did last out, but the bad behavior from Mike’s Magic, who cornered poorly on the lead and then ducked out to the outer rail, helped him secure that first score. Mike did come back to score at Colonial after almost coming back to win that race, in spite of his antics.  That was his lowest speed figure, which tells me that he might want to go a little farther than the six furlongs that is prescribed here. I do like the realistic approach to run this one for a tag as opposed to trying to tackle the N1X allowance company. He has better efforts on his running lines and should move forward. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 66/298 (22.1%), $529.20, $1.78 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)