Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/22/25 – By Eric Solomon

This is the final Friday of racing for the 2025 Monmouth Park Meet. There will be a three day, Saturday through Monday, racing week next weekend, which is Labor Day Weekend. Following that, Monmouth will have two more Saturday/Sunday weekend cards before switching over to the Monmouth at the Meadowlands turf meet, which is scheduled to begin on September 19th. The featured 4th race on today’s program is a N1X allowance race going five furlongs on the turf. Keep in mind that the last handicapping tournament during the regular season at Monmouth Park will be held next Saturday. Information for the $800 Travers Day Monmouth Park contest is linked below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/800-travers-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll start the day off with a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race going five furlongs over the turf course. As usual, the rails for the Friday card will be set at 36 feet. While speed has been a valuable weapon in both sprints and route races at this track configuration, we’ve seen evidence that perhaps the course has been playing more fair over the last two weeks. We should get an idea of how the course is playing, assuming that Surf’s Up (#3) breaks well from the gate. He’s going to be a short price in this race after getting nailed on the wire in two of his last three starts. He tried 5 ½ furlongs last time and he lost by a neck to a Wesley Ward first time starter in a race that came back a bit slow, at least from a Beyer perspective. That was one of the races at the “About 5 ½ furlong distance” and often the Beyer Figures from those races feel a bit off. Early speed is his game and if he runs back to his Gulfstream form, I think he’s going to be too good for these. However, he went into the starting gate at 11-10 odds with a Wesley Ward horse in the race. That tells me that he’s going to be sub-even money in this spot. While I’m not going to let him knock me out of the multi-race sequences, I’m going to try to for better value. I’ll use the first time starter, Ghostwriter (#2) on top. The dam has produced a stakes winner on the turf and her runners have been sharp at first asking despite not finding the Winner’s Circle. Kathleen O’Connell has good numbers with first time starters, especially in the maiden claiming ranks. While I can’t imagine that debuting for a tag was the original plan for this one, the works are decent. Ghostzapper is 7-34 (20.5% with debuting runners in turf sprints. I’ll also use Man With the Money (#1) in this race. His debut three back at Delaware when going this distance was sharp. He struggled against maiden special weight types here two back and he had a wide trip when finishing about a length behind the favorite last time out. Marin opts to ride Surf’s Up, but I think he can get closer with a better trip here. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlings in this $10K maiden claiming contest. This race feels like it’ll run through Miss World Peace (#3) for Jorge Delgado. She was claimed for $16K earlier in the meet and now drops in for a $10K tag after missing the better part of the summer. She ran well in her debut in 2023 at this distance and her race off the layoff in the mud at Oaklawn back in January wasn’t terrible. Her last four tries came at two turns, all of which came against stiffer competition. While I’m not crazy about the drop in class, she makes a lot of sense in a race where the alternatives aren’t particularly appealing. Champagne Mischief (#4) is the backup for me here. Her debut in maiden special weight company at Parx wasn’t terrible this spring. She finished near the back of the pack in a turf race at that condition at Laurel in her next start. Since then, her last three starts have not been encouraging. She takes a hefty drop in class for this race and she goes back to sprinting in a one turn dirt race. Perhaps the deep dive down the class ladder will be the wake up call she clearly needs.

Race 3:

The Jersey Shore-6 begins with a beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile on the main track. All seven runners in this race qualified under the N2L condition. Crossati (#6) is the play for me here. She finished in front of Little Squeeze (#4) at this level two starts ago. That one came back to run second as the 3-5 favorite at this level last time out. I think she’s quicker than the favorite from the gate, so I believe she can secure inside position on her despite breaking to her outside. She faltered against better last out when going six furlongs, but I think I prefer her going two turns. Most of the other runners were considerably behind Little Squeeze last time out, and I’m not seeing a logical pathway for them to finish better than her today. Unlike many of the others, she still has some upside.

Race 4:

There’s an interesting dynamic in this  featured N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, sprinting five furlongs on the turf. Amoudi Bay (#6) was the 6-5 at this level last out, making his first start against winners. He was second in that race by the slimmest of margins, and figures to be well-backed at the windows once again today. The catch is that this horse was ridden by Paco Lopez last time out, and won’t be ridden by him this afternoon since he’s named to ride horses at Colonial today. With Lopez having such a dominant meet, winning with nearly 33% of his mounts, I wondered how horses that he last rode performed in their next starts when they were ridden by a different jockey. (Selfishly, it felt like every horse that I’ve backed under these circumstances lost in their next start, while receiving what felt to be a less than stellar ride). I did a bit of a deep dive into this to see if what I was feeling could be quantified. After scrolling through the PP’s and charts, I identified 80 horses that were last ridden by Paco Lopez that had a different jockey for the next start. I limited this query to only horses at Monmouth Park. Only 7 of those 80 horses  (8.75%) found the Winner’s Circle in that subsequent start. To me that data confirms at the very least, that it’s important to be getting value when backing horses in this scenario. Isaac Castillo is a capable rider, but he’s only hitting at 9% for the meet and he’s failed to win a race for Lindsay Schultz in the last two years. Those aren’t great signs for a horse that figures to go off at odds below 2-1. It’s clear that this Jimmy Creed gelding has some ability, so in the win pools, 3-1 feels like the lowest number I’d be willing to accept. He’s a B line play for me here, but this feels like a horse I want to try to beat. Also note that Kantknowitall (#1), who is moving up the class ladder, also falls into the same category of a horse ridden by Lopez last time out, but will be piloted by a different rider today (Marin). 

The top pick in this race for me is Jetaros (#2) He cleared this condition at Tampa three starts ago, but remains eligible for the N1X level here due to the purse structure there. His number could have been put up two starts back when he ran a strong race to be second. He stalked the pace and made a bold three wide bid. He was hanging a bit as the winner of that race was battling back, but that one was drifting him, causing him to alter course in the stretch. He can win by stalking the pace and he can win on the front end, but I do think the five furlong distance suits him a little better than the 5 ½ furlong trip. I think we’ll see his best effort today. Marcus Gift (#7) is an interesting new face for this contest. He’s raced above his current condition in two of his last three starts in New York. His lone start there at this level came in a race that was taken off the turf. His two turf sprints at 5 ½ furlongs at the Fair Grounds this winter were sharp. I’d like him much more at 5 ½ furlongs as opposed to the 5 furlongs he’s getting today, however, I do think he gets a decent setup and I think he’s still playable since the course has been playing more evenly over the last two Fridays when the rails have been set at this 36 foot configuration. 

Race 5:

Two year old fillies will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the main track in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. The runners with experience aren’t’ all that appealing, so I’ll try Sweet Ruby (#5), who makes her debut for Diane Morici today. She is from the freshman crop of Uncle Check, who is 1-7 with his debuting juveniles in dirt sprints. However, he does have four winners total from 14 overall starters in sprint races. As a racehorse, it could be fair to say that his three race career was somewhat affected by the pandemic. He debuted in June as a three year old and was absolutely dominant. He won the Los Alamitos Derby and then ended his career with a 6th place finish in the Travers behind Tiz the Law. The dam has produced three horses that have won sprinting on the dirt. Most of Morici’s horses are acquired through the claiming game, and she rarely has two year olds in her barn, but she does have a debut winner at Laurel last fall. All four of Jose Batista’s winners at this meet have come when riding for Morici and he gets the call today. Knowledge is Good (#8) feels like the one to beat in this race for Rick Dutrow. He has four winners from 14 starters at this meet and five more runners that finished in the money. This tells me that the runners that he’s bringing here, that for the most part, are seeking class relief, are live. This Knicks Go filly debuted on the turf at Belmont at the Big A. She hit the gate, forcing a slow break in that restricted maiden allowance. She was never involved, finishing 6th that day. I don’t love that she debuted on the turf, because that tells me that her dirt works weren’t catching the eye. However, she’s not going to have to be much to win at this level. Dutrow has huge numbers with runners dropping from maiden special weight company to the maiden claiming ranks. She feels like she’s going to be a short price though in a race where no one should be a heavy favorite. 

Race 6:

The third race of the day going five furlongs on the turf is a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for three year olds and up. While six of the eight runners in the body of this field are three years old, all eight runners qualified for this race under the N2L condition. John Servis sends out a pair of runners in this race and I think both are live. I’m interested in Davola (#1) as a price play while breaking from the rail. He looked good on debut at Delaware at this distance, leading all of the way before fading to 4th, beaten only a length that day. He shipped to Gulfstream where he faced a tougher group for his second try. He slammed into the side of the gate and that was bumped in that same spot at the break. He rushed up to the lead and faded badly that day. He tried that Tapeta there and didn’t appear to be interested. He came back after six months away and easily beat bottom maidens on the dirt at Parx. He tried a tougher group and faded to 4th at that distance with starter allowance types at Penn National. He appears to be a better horse now than he was at two and I think he could be due to move forward in his third start off the bench. Servis also sends out Curious Soul (#6), who closed to be third at this level last time around. He was forced to steady shortly after coming out of the chute, but he did get a nice seam to run through along the rail. The top two were a little better that day. Neither of them are back and this gelding has shown that he’s more effective on the grass. I’m not loving the five furlong cutback in distance, but beggars can’t be choosers here. New York Strong (#7) makes his third start of the layoff in hopes of clearing this condition. He’s 0-6 since breaking his maiden here last summer. He ran a nice race here last August at this distance and his last effort was more like his old self. There are some definite speed and fade types here, which should work in his favor. I slightly prefer him to the other Servis runner, so he’s the second pick for me here. 

Race 7:

$10K maiden claimers will go one mile on the main track here. There is a complete lack of early pace in this contest, which should open the door for someone to steal this race if they’re good enough. Just Cheesy (#3) is one of several professional maidens in this race, but his best career effort came at a similar class level in a race that figures to have a similar pace scenario. Alfredo Velazquez brought him to town to compete on the turf last month where he was completely out of his element. Bryan Torres is a seven pound apprentice who did a great job handling a gate to wire winner at Parx on Monday. I think he’s finally found the right spot to break through. The backup for me in this spot is It’s Authentic (#7), who is another Parx invader. Andrew Wolfsont is scheduled to make the trip to ride this gelding back after a career effort last out at Parx. He used his inside post to help him to stay closer to the front end, and while he never really gained or lost position. He had better efforts prior to that race, so it could be a situation where this horse is starting to figure out some things. If someone runs down the top pick, I’m looking for him to be that runner. 

Race 8:

We’ll wrap things up with another beaten $16K-$14K claiming race on the grass, this one going 1 1/16 miles though. Everyone entered in this post qualified for this race under the N2L condition. You have to figure that Royal Browne (#7) is going to take some money in this race, but I’m not sure we’re even going to see him. While Rick Dutrow has never been afraid to wheel a horse back on short rest if they’re doing well, they took entries for this race a few hours before he ran a strong third at 43-1 in a state bred N1X allowance race at the Spa. With Saratoga winding down and the fall Belmont at the Big A meet nearing, you can usually find some softer state bred races for purses that are significantly higher than the $18K offered here. If he does show up, that feels a lot like a red flag to me, so I’d be pointing in a different direction. I’m going to try Coalville (#3) on top in this spot. He is one of the four horses on this card that were ridden by Paco Lopez in their last starts (Skull Honor (#6) in this race is the 4th runner). Isaac Castillo also picks up this mount, like he did with Amoudi Bay earlier in the day. However, while I suspect that one will get pounded at the windows, this gelding should be a little more overlooked, especially if Royal Browne does make the trip. His two turf efforts came in sprint races and neither effort was terrible. He just missed at this level three back. He faced a tougher group last time and was forced to be wide throughout when finishing less than two lengths behind the winner. His best dirt efforts came at two turns, and when looking at his sparkling pedigree, you can see why that makes sense. However, since things have gone fairly well on the turf, he makes a lot of sense as a runner that can move forward on this surface at two turns. He has a favorable post and is now making his 4th start after a lengthy layoff. He was cross-entered in a race at Parx on Tuesday, so whether or not he’ll be participating is worth keeping an eye on. While I’m hopeful he does compete here, Surprise Package (#1) is the super-obvious alternative. He has the rail post after a strong effort to be second at this level last time out. He ran a good race two back to break the maiden at 10-1 odds, This is a quick turnaround after his big effort at this level last week, so that might be my only real concern with him in this spot. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 73/325 (22.5%), $558.80, $1.72 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)