Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, July 4th, 2025 – By Eric Solomon

The 4th of July is always a big deal at the Jersey Shore so it’s fitting that Monmouth Park kicks off this holiday weekend with an 8 race Friday matinee card. The 6th race, which is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance contest, is the feature today. Nine are entered in that competitive contest. The Oceanport Area got a decent amount of rain earlier in the week, but the last few days have been dry and the weekend forecast looks excellent! The four races carded for the turf should remain as intended and as per usual on Fridays, the rails will be set at 36 feet. First post this afternoon is set for 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will dash five furlongs on turf in a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race to start the card. They carded this exact race two weeks ago when On the Payroll (#3) was an easy winner, going off at 3-10 odds. She was making her first start off a four month layoff in that race and she was much the best. The runner up from that, Theodora Grace (#8) was 4 ½ lengths behind with no real excuse. While you could argue that The Furmanator (#1), Peggysue I Love You (#2), and Pageant Princess (#5) are better competition than Theodora Grace, there are definite question marks with all three of those runners. Meanwhile, front end speed at this distance when the rails are at this 36 foot setting, has been very tough. 3 of the 5 winners in those races led every step of the way with the two races being won by stalkers that stayed close to the pace. Neither The Furmanator or Pageant Princess are particularly fast from the gate. While both could be a little keen since they are making their first starts since the Fall of 2024, I still don’t see a world where they’re faster than On the Payroll in the first ¼ mile. Peggysue I Love You has never been on the turf, but she’s shown enough early foot to make the lead while going this distance on synthetic. That does seem meaningful since the last three wins from On the Payroll came in gate to wire fashion. At the end of the day, I don’t think Peggysue I Love You is fast enough to keep pace, and I don’t think Pageant Princess is as effective at one turn as she is at two. The Furmanator has been competitive in her four turf races, but she’s going to be asked to run a career best in her first start in over eight months. I’ll use her as the backup, but I can’t really come up with a case for On the Payroll to get beat. 

Note that the AE runner, Above the Limit (#9) was cross-entered in a race at Delaware on Wednesday, but she was scratched from that spot which was taken off the turf. When I handicapped this race earlier in the week, I was thinking she was going to be a definite scratch, since she was guaranteed entry in that race where she was the morning line favorite. She does make things more complicated for the favorite if she gets into the body of this field. She has a chance if she draws in, and is certainly one to play if she draws and On the Payroll were to defect. I think the bigger takeaway is that I’d likely upgrade the chances of The Furmanator if both of those runners are competing. Both are “need the lead” types and their battle could benefit someone coming from a little farther back. 

Race 2:

The first dirt race of the day is a $30K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going a mile. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have a minimum of one start for a $30K claiming tag or less since 2023 or they cannot have won a race in 2025. While Antigravity (#5) qualified under both conditions, the only runner in this field to have never run for a tag of $30K or less is Khozeiress (#6), who is my top pick. He’s an interesting player in this race, and one of two runners entered by Terri Pompay on behalf of My Purple Haze Stables LLC. This son of Khozan was really good here in 2024, winning a stakes quality allowance race last June which propelled him in both the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup and the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes. He was competitive in the Monmouth Cup before Tapit Trice took it to the field at the top of the stretch. He was a little flat in the Iselin although it didn’t help his cause when Subsanador and Il Miracolo were in their own personal match race from the ⅜ pole on. His four starts since then were not great, with two disastrous efforts at Gulfstream and a pair of better tries at Tampa where he finished 3rd both times. He’s getting more class relief than anyone else in this field, but he’s still running in a protected spot, which feels like a positive sign to me. He’s had four decent drills since returning to the Jersey Shore and I think he has a live look in this race today. Auto Glide (#2) makes his first start at the meet for Greg Compton. Since Compton claimed him in January of 2024, he’s started 12 times, finishing in the money in 11 of those starts and winning five. He always seems to show up and the fact that Paco Lopez is riding him instead of Jamie Ness’ horse feels like a good sign. I’ll try to beat Boss Logic (#4) in this spot, who was claimed by Ness last out. That was in December though, which is important to note. For as many wins as Ness has (174 in 2025 alone), his numbers with horses off longer layoffs aren’t very good lately. He has 0 wins with his last 12 starters that he claimed and then brought back after a six month or more break and his last win under those pretenses came back in 2022. He has lost 29 straight starts with horses coming back from more than 180 days away, with his last win coming back in November of 2024. Only six of those 29 starters hit the board and only one was close to winning, meaning that his in the money percentage (20.7%) with this metric is lower than his overall win percentage this year (26%). Money should be spread around here, but Ness’ has been sharp at this meet and his runners typically take money at the windows. However, I think this is a good spot to avoid his horse, which hopefully leads to better value on some of the others. Awesome Flay (#3) has a few big speed figures in his last three starts and he just missed in the N1X allowance company here two starts ago. He was very good at Delaware last out when everything went his way. He’s likely going to have to deal with Boss Logic early on in this one, but if that horse needs the start, he may be able to put him away early and get a jump on the others that should be moving well late. He’s a B line play for me in this spot. 

Race 3:

While Wampanoag Chief (#1) looks very tough in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming dash going five furlongs on the lawn, I’m going to try to beat the favorite with Nicole’s Will (#7). This War of Will gelding is making his third start off the layoff, while dropping in class for Cathal Lynch. He finished third in an off the turf race at Penn National when facing $25K-$20K maiden claimers in his last start. He’s never run on the grass, but he did compete four times as a two year old on the synthetic at Presque Isle Downs last year. For the most part, he was competitive in those races, so there’s reason to believe that he can take a step forward in this race while moving to grass for the first time. He has enough speed to stay close to the favorite, so I’m hoping his foundation will help put him over the top in the stretch. Wampanoag Chief makes his 5th career start and his first for trainer Phil Aristone. Aristone is typically based at Parx, but with turf racing on hold there for the foreseeable future, he decided to send this Social Inclusion over to Monmouth for this maiden contest. He was 8th in maiden special weight company this distance in his lone try on the turf, but his speed figure would likely be good enough to win this race, should he be able to replicate that number, He’s going to have every chance on the front end, so barring a bad start, there should be no excuses for him. While I’ll try to beat him on top, he’s going to be on most of the multi-race tickets for me, especially when considering how this course has played at this distance and rail positioning. 

Race 4:

The first race of the meet for New Jersey bred two year olds is a maiden special weight race going five furlongs on the main track. Six of the nine runners entered in this spot are fillies and only one of the nine runners, Golden Spirit (#3), has a race under her belt. Even though experience can be a plus, that filly showed absolutely nothing in a slowish, open maiden race last month. Chuck Spina also sends out Slick Merlin (#1), who dam has produced a pair of debut runners. Paco Lopez taking the mount is another positive sign, but I don’t love the rail for her and Spina has only one win with 43 debuting two year olds in the last five years, and that win came in July of 2020. Noon Time Tide (#6) should take some money for Eddie Owens as she’s a full sister to Sea Streak. He’s a very nice horse that was second on debut in the Smoke Glacken Stakes to Book’em Danno. He was an easy next out winner and he would go on to win the Long Branch Stakes against open company last year. This filly is also a half to Speaking, who was a debut winner here and is a three-time winner of the John J. Reilly Handicap and an open stakes winning sprinter. The pedigree to be fast and to win now is there, so I’ll definitely use this one, but the works aren’t as sharp as some of the other horses in Owens’ barn, so I don’t want to take too short of a price here. I’ll make J J Pacheco (#5) the top pick in this spot for Jose Sanchez. Sanchez doesn’t debut many two year olds, but he does have a win with seven starters. He sends a pair of runners from the freshman sire, Engage, and he’s worked quell in company with La Resolana (#7) in the mornings. He’s a half to J J Zo Zo, who was third on debut. He turned out to be a fast runner who was good enough to win the Smoke Glacken Stakes against open company by several lengths last fall. Clever Charlie (#2) is the other runner I’ll use in this race. Dan Ward is another trainer that doesn’t debut many babies, but he did train a debut winner, Piggy Tales Up, here last year. Her half brother, who is the lone foal to have made it to the track from this mare, didn’t show much in his first two starts. However, he improved significantly last year when moving into Ward’s barn. 

Race 5:

$40K-$30K maiden claiming fillies and mares will dash five furlongs on the grass here. Gold Stamp (#1) is the pick for me in this spot, getting back on the turf for Mike Dini. Her full brother, Gold broke from the rail in a first level allowance on this course at this distance last week. Samy Camacho rode that one to a gate to wire victory and I think he can do the same with his sister. She ran a credible race in her lone turf sprint, which came at Tampa back in March. She faced open maiden allowance company that day and finished second, beaten six lengths by a runaway winner. She was second twice after that before turning in a dull effort on a sealed and muddy course at Parx when facing open maidens last out. She was favored in that race, which carried a $69K purse, but I can’t fault her for running poorly on that course, which can be tricky at times for shippers. I think turf is where she is going to be best and I think she fits very well with this group. Princess Irene (#2) catches the eye, making her first start for Jorge Delgado. She comes back to the turf after a pair of mile races at Turfway over the winter. She was purchased for $275K, so seeing her entered with a $40K tag is not great. Delgado has good numbers with maiden special weight to maiden claiming class droppers and turf sprinters, however, she’s probably going to take some money here and I would have preferred to see her AM drills be a little bit sharper. My Grey Humor (#7) is another backup for me in this spot. She rallied well to be second in November at Laurel when trying the turf for the first time. She caught a good course at Delaware when making her first start off the layoff last month. She finished third that day, beaten nine lengths behind a runaway winner. That can be a demanding course to race on, especially when coming off the bench. She’ll likely be more fit for this spot and I think she’ll be a better fit on this kind of turf course. I do wonder if she has enough early foot to compete  

Race 6:

The featured race is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance contest for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. I’m always interested in who is running with the claiming tag and who is entered under allowance conditions in these races. Typically, the runners in for a tag have lower ceilings, but they’re proven at this level and there’s not many allowance conditions left for them. The runners in for the allowance condition generally have higher ceilings or their connections are interested in keeping them in the barn for the time being. Four of the nine runners in this field, Smooth Flyin Mike (#2), Midlaner (#4), Macron (#8), and Downtownchalybrown (#9), are entered with the $40K claiming tag. All but Downtownchalybrown, are no longer eligible for this spot. I believe Uptownchalybrown could get away running without the tag since his open win came at Penn National, but I’m not certain. Rabbit Hound (#1) was a winner at this condition last month, but he was still eligible for the N1X condition, he’s able to return without running with a claiming tag. This is a very tough race where I do think coverage will be needed. Downtownchalybrown is the pick, making his third start off the layoff today. He was flat in his return at Penn National when running against a tough allowance field. He ran in the Get Serious Stakes going five furlongs on a sloppy course here last out. Super Chow is a fast horse and that one was clear the entire way. He got up for second in that race and now he drops back into allowance company. He ran several strong races in 2024, but only found the Winner’s Circle once. He has 9 wins in 30 starts at this distance and 21 total in the money finishes when going six furlongs on the dirt. Lasix is back in play and I expect his fitness level to be better. Midlaner has made 44 career starts, but this will be his first at the Jersey Shore this afternoon. Michael Moore has 4 winners with 6 starters at this meet going into the weekend. He cleared this condition in November at Parx and was fairly sharp before going to the sidelines. He has been working well at Parx and appears ready to fire. On deeper tickets, I’ll include the favorite, Smooth Flyin’ Mike with Paco Lopez riding. He was claimed by Jamie Ness two starts ago. He ran at this level when going one mile on the main track at Parx at the end of May. He zipped a bullet workout while cutting back in distance for this spot. His local races have not been great, but this is probably his best distance. Faith Wilson has brought some live runners to this meet and she sends out Northern Flame (#6) and Manor House (#7) in this race. Bruno Tessore trained these geldings in Florida, but both ship here to run for Wilson. I don’t like the distance for either one, but there is definite back class with Northern Flame. He fired a bullet at Laurel last week while making his first start since being gelded. He’s never competed in a race this short, so there are question marks. However, this is a horse that is graded stakes placed at his best. This might be a tightener for a longer race next out, but I believe his best is better than the other eight. 

Race 7:

The only two turn race on the turf this afternoon is a $16K-$14K N3X claiming race going one mile. All eight of the fillies and mares entered in this spot qualified under the N3L condition. I think the New Jersey bred, Sea Maiden (#1) could be tough to deal with in this spot. She’s making her second start off the layoff and stretching back out to two turns on the turf, which is something that she has handled in the past. She was a game 4th with state bred N2X allowance types last year when she was making her second start off the layoff. She fell apart two back at the Meadowlands against a solid field at that condition. Rory Huston had her on the sidelines until she came back in an optional $15K/N1X allowance race for state bred fillies and mares, sprinting on the dirt. She caught a sloppy course for that race and was never really a factor. There’s no secret to her game, as she wants to be on the front end. The rail post only makes that more accessible for her. She does tend to get tired in the final furlong, but this is going to be a softer group than what she’s faced in the past. I’m expecting a much better effort from her in this spot today. Permed (#4) may be the one best positioned to run her down in the final stages of this one. She gets back on the turf after a pair of sprint races at Parx in her last two tries. She cleared the N2L condition at this tag over the winter at Tampa. Paco Lopez will likely have her in a good stalking spot if she’s good enough. 

Race 8:

The first three dirt races on this card were very challenging and the same could be said for this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race. Five of the eight runners in this  1 1/16 mile contest are coming off wins in their last starts. Three of those winners led every step of the way in those races. The pace should be contentious enough to set the table for Amity Road (#1), who is the lukewarm morning line favorite in this spot. He’s a seven time winner, but this N1X allowance condition has eluded him thus far in his career. He has three wins and two second places in his last five starts. He was pace compromised last time out at Delaware when the race winner was allowed to set moderate fractions before pulling away with authority. Paco Lopez rode this one to a win at Parx back in April and he’s back in the saddle this afternoon. Chad Brown sends out a pair of maiden winners in this race with Wise Up (#5) and The Boondocker (#8). The Boondocker beat a better field, but I think Wise Up has the better chance today. He stalked a moderate pace in a race that was scheduled for the turf, but moved to the main track. He recovered nicely from a rough debut at Tampa in March. He’s clearly better at two turns and he might be able to get the jump on the top pick if Samy Camacho is able to work out the right kind of trip. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Talklessworkmore (#3), who has inside position on the other speed horses in this race. He’s done most of his work on the turf in his career, but his dirt efforts aren’t bad. Jose Delgado claimed him for $12,500 when he was an easy winner in an off the turf race in the slop. This is a step up, but Delgado has good numbers first off the claim, so I’m guessing that this one is doing a lot of things right in the AM.

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 41/167 (24.6%), $364.00, $2.18 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)