Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 6/21/25 – By Eric Solomon

Warm and dry weather seems to be the theme of the weekend as we’ll try to get through the first full weekend of racing without having any races taken off the turf. The featured race today is the Goldwood Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. First post for this nine race program is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

One more note: In the Picks Grid, when there are multiple choices in a column, the numbers are now listed in order of preference as opposed to numerical order. 

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the day off in a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course here. This race starts with Bonita Diamond (#4), who ran a winning race here last out, only to tie late and finish third. She made her turf debut that day and was hustled away from Post 10, which is not an easy post for this distance on this course. She cleared her rivals, getting over to the two path coming out of the chute. The eventual runner-up tried to sneak through on the rail before they hit the turn and she accelerated early to maintain the lead. She opened up by 2 ½ lengths, but tired late to finish 3rd. I think her post sets her up for an easier trip today and having the experience should help. I think she’s going to be very tough in this race today. Stormy Disco (#10) draws the tougher post in this race for Mike Dini. She did not run yesterday at Aqueduct where she was cross-entered, so there’s reason to believe that she’ll go in this spot today. She’s going to have to do it from off the pace because I don’t think she’s fast enough to go with the top pick in the early stages of this one. If Camacho can navigate a good trip, she’ll be tough in this spot. I’ll use Wildcat Fire (#3) as a deeper backup in this spot. I like her better underneath here, but this is more of a connections play for me. The dam was all dirt, but her sire, Poseidon’s Warrior does get 10% winners with turf sprinters. Her synthetic sprints were her best efforts, so perhaps the switch to turf will prove fruitful. 

Race 2:

Two year old fillies will go five furlongs on the main track in this maiden special weight contest, which is the second race for the baby fillies at this meet. Jorge Delgado was a force in these races here last year. He sent out the winner of the first two year old race here this year and he had a runner lose by a nose in the second race. He sends out a pair here with Sushi (#6), making her second start, and Misty Money (#4) making her first. Misty Money doesn’t really fit the profile of one of his better runners. Sushi is the heavy favorite and the only runner in the field with experience. She ran well enough to be second at Gulfstream when going off at 11-1 in a maiden allowance race there at this distance. She was in chase mode the entire way and was never gaining on the winner, but she was well clear of the third place finisher, Paco Lopez takes the mount here. She clearly needs to be respected in this race, but since she’s starting at 3-2, I want to try to get a better price elsewhere. Joe Orseno doesn’t have great numbers with debut runners, but he’s capable of having a winner at first asking. He sends out Call the Bullpen (#3) in this race, and I think this filly could be competitive. She’s sired by a debut winner, Cairo Prince. He gets 11% winners from debuting two year olds. The dam was a debut winner at two years old in a maiden race at Delaware. Her first two foals to race have shown little, but the fact that this one sold for $100K last fall tells me that she looks a little different than those two. The local works have been competitive and Samuel Marin is riding extremely well right now. 

Race 3:

Six of the seven runners in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race have some experience, but there’s not a lot jumping off the page. I’ll try the firster, Trumps Girl (#3) in this race for Diane Morici. She’s been working steadily since January and has some decent drills over this course. She’s sired by Neolithic, who gets 16% winners with first time starters in dirt sprints. Her dam, Reggae Revolution, was second on debut and winner in her second start. This will be her first foal to race. There’s enough there to make me believe that she’ll be competitive at this level. Princess Norma (#4) showed some potential when making her debut with maiden allowance company at Tampa back in March. However, she encountered some tough foes in her last two starts. She hopped at the break two back, allowing the even money favorite to have an easy time making the front end. She was never able to secure any kind of front-forward positioning that day, and she was a well-beaten 5th in a race where the winner won by 11 widening lengths. She ran into a very nice Chad Brown filly when making her first local start last out .She was away better, but she backed out when Layered kept finding on the front end. That one went on to win by an easy 7 lengths while this Girvin folly faded to last. There’s no one close to the level of that filly in this race, so I do think we’ll see a better effort from this one on the class drop. Maggies Brew (#5) showed improvement in an off the turf race last out. She had a miserable time of things in her debut at Tampa when racing at this level. She is moving back up in class, but she faced a winner last out that would have been tough with this group. She could have a forward move in this spot as well.  

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this $16K-$14K N2X claiming race. All 14 runners entered in this spot qualified under the N2L condition, making this race equivalent to a $16K-$14K N2L claiming race. With the rails set at 12 feet today, the maximum number of starters for this race will be 11. Fake Celebrity (#3) has some upside in this spot after a trip that might have been tougher than it looks on paper. She ran well two back when she was closer to the front end than usual at Tampa. She broke well last time but was jostled back when coming out of the chute. She was wide on both turns and was forced to steady on the far turn, but still ran on to get into 5th. She’s drawn an inside post and when she was at her best, she was stalking the pace. I think she’ll be able to get that kind of trip today, while getting on a course that should be a little firmer than it was last time out. Extreme Access (#5) makes sense on the class drop, while moving into Kelly Breen’s barn for the first time. His maiden score here in 2023 was excellent, but he’s been kept out of the Winner’s Circle in his six subsequent starts. Soundness has been an issue, since he’s only made six starts since August of 2023, however, he did look like he was trending in the right direction at Gulfstream this past spring. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Lake Chapala (#8). He has some nice efforts on the turf, including a pair of second place efforts on this course in 2024. He finally put it all together when breaking his maiden with $16K maiden claimers at Tampa two starts ago. I don’t necessarily get his last start when facing beaten $7,500-$6,500 claimers here on the dirt, since I think it’s pretty clear he wants to be on the lawn, I like him better underneath, but he’s a live longshot in this spot. 

Race 5:

Three year olds and up will travel one mile, which is one full circuit over the dirt course here at Monmouth. I’m going to try Tiztimonial (#1) on top in this spot. He took some money in an off the turf, 5 ½ furlong sprint here at the end of May. He was slow to find his stride, but he was moving well enough late to at least make me think that he could have a future going longer. His sire, Tiz the Law, has gotten 15% winners with horses in dirt route races so far. He’s been moved to a new barn, and Jose Delgado has favorable numbers with new acquisitions. He’s also been gelded since his last start which could also help him on the track. Real Talented (#6) stumbled at the break last out, which allowed the longshot race winner, Crossati, to go gate to wire with relative ease. There was a lot going on in that race, and he never seemed comfortable. His effort two back at Pimlico was much better, where he looked like he could have been a winner with a better trip, while routing for the first time. I think he’s a candidate to rebound on the class drop here. Vino Vidi Vici (#2) is coming out of the same race last out where he was absolutely empty after breaking through the gate prior to the race. Sometimes that can take a lot of the pent up energy out of a horse, so I’m willing to forgive that non-effort. He fits on figures with this ground, but it is worth noting that he was 6, 7, and 8 lengths behind the winner in those Oaklawn races where he ran those mid-50 Beyers. I don’t love that he’s never really been close to winning, but you could also say the same about most of the runners in this spot. If he can run one of those races, he’s going to be tough at this level. 

Race 6, The $100K Goldwood Stakes:

Fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs in the featured race today. I think Epona’s Hope (#8) is going to be a big favorite in this spot, and while her figures are generally just faster than the rest of these, I think there is some vulnerability here. She’s very fast at five furlongs, but she’ll need to prove that she can carry her speed to get 5 ½. She’s breaking from the outside stall and there’s not a long run into the bend onto the main course. There is other speed, meaning there’s a decent chance she could be conceding some ground loss early on. If she does clear, she’s going to likely have to be used hard in the first furlong on a course that will likely be labeled firm, but it won’t be as firm as the Florida courses were when she was on a roll there over the winter. She is the one to beat, but I think Bel Pensiero (#6) will have every opportunity to run her down in the stretch. This is a talented New Jersey bred mare that has a state bred stakes win in a turf sprint on her resume. She ran credible races this summer at Gulfstream in open company. She’s coming off a dull effort in the Spruce Fir Stakes on the dirt last out. That was a good field of New Jersey bred fillies and mares and her rail post forced Ramon Moya to send early. I think she can stalk the speed and angle out at the top of the stretch. She’s never tried the 5 ½ furlong trip here on the turf, but I think it could suit her well. I’m not sure that Call Me Spicy (#7) is going to run in this race, but she is the lone dedicated closer in this field. She’s making her second start off the layoff and she ran well last year in a five furlong sprint at Gulfstream where she was closing well into a fast pace. I think she’s another one that could be well-suited for this distance here and I believe the right setup is going to be there. It is worth noting that at the time of writing this, she’s not listed as a choice in Formulator and she was entered without a rider named. Her trainer, Joe Orseno also sends out Eturian (#5), who figures to be a part of the pace puzzle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Call Me Spicy be a scratch in this race, but I think she’s an interesting value play underneath if she does go. 

Race 7:

Silver Slugger (#7) is going to be a massive favorite in this N1X allowance sprint. This horse has had a fascinating career, making all ten career starts for Juan Avila and Victoria’s Ranch. He debuted in a stakes race at Parx where he was eased and then wasn’t seen again for 14 months. Clearly there was something about this horse that the connections liked to debut there, but then after whatever ailment/s kept him off the track, they entered him in lower level claiming races. He ran well twice in the winter of 2024, but was sidelined for another 10 months. He came back in January of this year and already has made 7 starts in 2025. He’s been very good, winning four times. He lost in the Pelican Stakes in February, which he probably wasn’t quite ready for. He cleared this condition and then was able take advantage of running in some starter allowance races at Tampa before shipping to New York to run in the Grade 3 John A. Nerud . He just missed in that race at long odds. He came back on Belmont Day where he was favored in a seven furlong allowance race in the slop at the Spa. He was under pressure every step of the way and he faded late. I don’t think he wants to go that far, so the cutback to six furlongs makes sense here. I think he rebounds and wires this field with relative ease. If there is someone that can catch him, perhaps it will be X Y Prime (#6), making his first start against winners today. He was good at the end of the Tampa meet when breaking his maiden in his third career start. He’s worked well over the local oval in preparation for this start, so I do see him as a candidate to move forward. I’m not convinced he’s ready to beat a horse like the favorite in this spot, but I do think he’ll be making some progress late. 

Race 8:

This is a nice conditioned allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. While there are some different ways to go, I think this is a great spot for I’m On Fire (#1). There’s a lot to like here as Paco Lopez gets the mount after two competitive races with Melissa Iorio in the saddle. Iorio has a 5% winning percentage in her young career in turf route races, where Lopez has won 20% of his turf route races in the last five years. That number goes up to 28% when we focus just at Monmouth Park. He’s been red hot to start this meet and he’s upgrading most of his mounts by a few lengths by seemingly having them in a good spot almost all of the time. I do think this is a spot where Sand Pipes (#5), Mickey Shillelagh (#6), and Fidelightcayut (#11) should all take some money at the windows. I think he gets a big post edge over Fidelightcayut,who narrowly finished in front of him last time out. I think he has a significant pace edge over Sand Pipes, and I suspect that Mickey Shillelagh is going to need this race coming off the long layoff. I’m hopeful to get between 2-1 and 5-2 on the top pick in this race, and lean into that in the win pool. The backup for me is Happy Cat (#9), who makes his first start since August for Jorge Duarte Jr. I really like the new dimension he showed in his last start at Delaware when he rallied from out of the clouds to win a starter allowance on the grass there. He’s typically been a horse that has been on or near the lead in all of his starts, showing that race showed me that he’s definitely matured. There are gaps in his running lines and he could need this race. I worry that he might be a little keen, but I think he should be the 5th choice in the wagering and I think he fits well on his best day. 

Race 9:

Fillies and mares will go one mile over the main track in this $10K maiden claimer that ends the day. I really wanted to try to find a longer price in this race, but it’s tough to tout a longshot with the current form lines in this race. I was a little interested in Momsemptypockets (#8), making her third career start, her first on the dirt and her first try at two turns. However, I’m not loving the fact the cross-entered her in $10K maiden claiming race tomorrow where they’re going to sprint six furlongs. I suspect she’s going to opt for that race. I’ll toss her on the C line in this spot, just in case she shows up here. The three shortest prices are the three that most likely are going to figure in the outcome of this one. I don’t have a strong opinion between the trio, so I’ll use the best price as the top pick. Awesome Sunshine (#3) is routing for the first time after a series of speed and fade efforts. She might be quick enough to beat Wild Princess (#1) to the lead, but they also might be content to try to get her to rate. The dam is looking for her first foal to win and horses sired by Curlin’s Honor are 0-18 in route races on dirt or synthetic so far. I think she can handle this distance at this level, but I will need to get at least the 7-2 figure or better to keep her on the A line. Wild Princess has speed from the rail which makes her dangerous on the drop in class today. She ran well at this level two back, but I didn’t love her last effort when she stopped badly when she was headed. Her better efforts are good enough to compete here. Winning Shot (#4) could be trending in the right direction, but I’m not sure if I love stretching her back out to two turns after running two competitive sprint races. She does like this course and her parents are both two turn Breeders’ Cup winners. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 29/123 (23.6%), $283.00, $2.30 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)