Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 7/11/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s an eight race card this Saturday afternoon at Monmouth, highlighted by an interesting edition of the $100K My Frenchman Stakes for three year old turf sprinters. Post time for the first race this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts with beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. The rails are going to be set at 24 feet for the four races carded for the turf this afternoon. This is one of three races on the card that was originally scheduled to be run on July 4th last weekend when excessive heat forced the cancellation of two cards. There were only six runners entered in this spot last Saturday and since then, three more have joined in which has changed the complexion of this race considerably. I thought last week’s version of this race set up well for Only You (#7). While I think she still has a decent shot, a lot of her tactical edges have gone away. Instead, I’ll look to Dakota Cam (#3) as an under the radar type horse that has a decent shot in this race. Two of her 11 career tries came on the turf and neither effort resulted in an on the board finish. However, I think both of those races are better than they look on paper. She was an early winner last year at two, scoring in an off the turf mile race in July at Delaware. She ran into a nice filly on the grass in her turf debut back in September at Laurel in a race where she was about three lengths better than Radar Loop (#1). She ran several times on the dirt after that race, and got back on the grass with a better field two starts back. She covered a lot of ground after being wide coming out of the chute and threw deep on both turns. She was still poised to make a run at the leader, who set a fairly slow tempo. However, she was repeatedly bumped out into the middle of the track, which clearly took some starch out of her late bid. She was empty on the dirt in her last start, but now she drops to a better level of competition and gets back on the turf for a new barn. I think she’s dangerous in this race. Only You was a game second at this level in her last start when she was able to control the tempo for the better part of the race. There wasn’t much speed signed on last week in this race and she had an inside draw that day well. There’s other speed to contend with today and she’s drawn a tougher post. She is capable of stalking though, so I don’t think she’s a toss by any means. Mike Dini trains both El Ma’any (#4) and Radar Loop, and of that duo, I think I prefer El Ma’any. She has taken a decent step forward in her two local starts. She went off as the favorite last time out, which was a bit surprising. She made a belated bid down the outside after being covered up in 5th for the better part of that race. Francisco Martinez gave her a sharp ride two back and he gets back aboard today. 

Race 2:

A half dozen runners entered in this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race going six furlongs on the dirt. I’m interested in Foil (#2) in this spot, who had a two-race win streak snapped last month when facing a much tougher starter allowance group. He was in deep that day, but he lost all chance at the break when he got away slowly and spotted the field several lengths. He’s well bred as he initially cost $500K at auction for previous owners. I don’t think he’ll ever live up to that kind of billing, but I do think he’s capable of moving forward while getting some class relief in this lower level N3L claimer. Mambrino (#1) is the alternative for me in this race. He was very disappointing last month when he faltered as the 1-5 favorite at this level. He was claimed again from that spot and now returns in a similar race. I can’t play him anywhere near even money in this race, but his best effort likely wins this race by open lengths, so I do feel compelled to make sure he’s on some of my tickets. 

Race 3:

A half dozen runners will go six furlongs in this $10K  maiden claimer that kicks off the Jersey Shore Pick-6. There is some rough form here and four of the six runners are cutting back in distance from two turn races. This is another race that was brought back from the card that was canceled on July 4th. I didn’t love that Law of Uncertainty (#6) debuted in a two turn race. He showed some decent speed before fading badly in a tougher field for $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming condition. He gets class relief and cuts back to one turn where he’s facing a much softer group. He’ll need to improve, but with this group, I feel he’s worth taking a shot with. The same could be said for the first time starter, Why Me Lord (#5). He’s biggest asset is that there’s absolutely no form to go off of. There was a bullet work three weeks ago and when looking at his pedigree, this distance will probably be what suits him best. I do like that they worked him out in the morning on 7/4 after it was decided that the races would be canceled that day. I’ll also use the professional maiden, They Call Me Sue (#2). He’s dropping in class to the lowest level to date. He’s a classic speed and fade type that has had nine chances to get the job done. He struggled against much tougher opponents here last month, but he was more competitive with lower level maiden claimers at Tampa. Even though All the Luck (#1) is the morning line favorite, I think this one goes off as the post time favorite because at the very least, I think he has speed to put him into the race, where All the Luck has proven time and time again that he doesn’t. 

Race 4:

This $16K-$14K N3L claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf is another race that was brought back from last Saturday and it’s another race that has some new faces after initially drawing a short field. There is definitely a decent amount of speed signed on for this race with the Penn shipper Celestial Speed (#1) drawn inside of both Taprixie (#2) and Bonita Diamond (#3). Sliver of Sunshine (#5) has had some success closing over this course at this distance and she figures to get another good setup today. She came off the bench to clear the N2L condition here last month coming over the top with a bold late bid. While it’s not easy to roll through conditions, she is a candidate to move forward while also getting a recipe for her running style. Gold Stamp (#6) will likely be a shorter price, but she should also get first run on the pick. She broke her maiden over a course labeled “good” here last summer and with there being a decent amount of rain in the area this week, she could find herself competing on a similar kind of course. She’s more of a stalker that should be in the mix, but she also doesn’t have the best finishing speed, which could cause her to be vulnerable to a late moving opponent. Pat’schromecompass (#7) is a deeper tickets play for me in this race. She got back on the grass for the first time a while in her last try and things got very tight for her on the turn. She remained steady while settling for 6th, but I do think she was capable of producing a better late bid. She might be better suited underneath as a horse that could add some spice to a vertical wager, but I do think she has an outside shot in this race.

Race 5:

This $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares is going to feature a very heavy favorite with Seeking Serenity (#5). She has three starts and three second place finishes to show for it. She was a beaten favorite in her last two starts, but has always been competitive. She was claimed at this level and now debuts for a new barn that has started to pick up some steam at this meet. There’s not much value here, but she feels very likely. Love in the Hills (#2) got within about 2 ½ lengths of the favorite when making a big step forward in her most recent start. She was making her second start off the layoff and only her second try on the dirt that day, so taking a big step forward didn’t have to feel like a total shock. However the top pick was clearly better on a day where she wasn’t at her best. She’s more of a deeper saver for me. 

Race 6, The $100K My Frenchman Stakes:

Three year olds will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this featured stakes race. While this doesn’t feel like a great betting race, I’m very interested to see the anticipated showdown between Miguel Clement’s NYRA shipper Big Destroyer (#6) against a very speedy Jersey bred, Cairo Surprise (#8). Cairo Surprise ran a monster race two back and as a result, I thought he could have been a bit vulnerable in the state bred John J. Reilly Handicap. However, he vanquished some high quality state bred sprinters on the dirt with relative ease. He moves back into open company and heads back to the turf for the first time since crossing the wire first in a nice allowance race at Laurel. His number was taken down, but that was a big effort against older runners relatively early on in his three year old season. He’s facing straight three year olds here and I think he has the edge over the shipper in this race. Big Destroyer was a winner of a strong maiden special weight race at Aqueduct last month. With some nice races ahead for three year old turf sprinters at the Spa, Clement opts to try him in this spot , likely to see if he’s worthy of some of those races later in the meet. Facing an experienced runner like Cairo Surprise should be a good litmus test for him. 

Race 7:

Wagering money should be relatively spread out in this $40K-$30K, one mile maiden claimer on the dirt. I think this might be a good spot to take a stand with Gold Light (#5) as I think some of the other runners that should be taking money here are vulnerable. This Frosted gelding is dropping in for a tag for the first time this afternoon after five tries in maiden allowance company. He met a tough group here in his last start, finishing 4th to Kaz Brio, who was loaded while trying two turns on the dirt for the first time. The runner-up, Tifosi, came back to beat a stakes placed maiden to score in his next start. Since that May race, this horse has been gelded and he now drops in for a tag that is still greater than his purchase price. I think this is the right spot for him to graduate. Cuddy’s Lucky (#6) is the backup for me in this race, while making his first start off the Kelly Breen claim. He was 4th as the even money favorite in a wild finish at this level when sprinting at the end of May. Breen was on an absolute heater at the start of the meet, but he’s cooled off a bit over the last month. However, his horses are frequently going off at odds below what I feel is fair market value. I don’t know if this one is crying out for two turns, but this is not the worst spot to take that swing. 

Race 8:

The day ends with a wide open, optional $15K claiming/N1X race for New Jersey bred fillies and mares going one mile over the turf. After two big swings in stakes races, Creative Stuff (#1) drops to an easier spot here. Her figures are competitive, and while that doesn’t always equate to wins, she did score at this distance at the Meadowlands last fall. That tells me that she’s capable when running at the right level. Like the top pick, Golden Ring (#9) was an also ran in the Jersey Girl Handicap here last month. She was never really involved that day, finishing a non-threatening 7th. She is another runner that has shown she is capable of running better races, coming close at this level last season. She makes her third start off the layoff and her second try this year at two turns, so I’m expecting her fitness level to be higher here. Delightful Ava (#10) was done no favors by drawing post 10 for this race, but at least she doesn’t have to contend with the chute. She was pretty lousy last year, but she was sharper as a four year old. Perhaps there were some lingering issues last year that kept her from being in peak form. She was much sharper in her first start off the bench, running a game third at 44-1. She was better at two turns when she was at her best in 2024 when she cleared this condition. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 39/145 (26.9%), $216.30 ($1.49 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet