Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 7/5/25 – By Eric Solomon

New Jersey breds are in the spotlight this weekend at Monmouth as there are a pair of stakes races on the grass for horses bred in the Garden State. Today, the fillies and mares will go in the Jersey Girl Handicap, which is the 6th race of the afternoon. The rail will be set at 24 feet for the four turf races carded today. It was a bit surprising that the races were taken off the turf yesterday, but some unexpected rain overnight on Thursday caused that situation. Races are expected to be back on the grass today and tomorrow. First post for what should be another beautiful day is scheduled for 12:50 (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll kick off the day with a maiden special weight for three year olds and up going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. I made a case for Volunteer Fireman (#2) as a first time starter in a race at this level three weeks ago, and while I didn’t love his effort, I also wasn’t discouraged. He was acting up prior to the race and reared back when trying to go into the gate, tossing Maddie Olver to the ground while losing his balance. He was deemed fit to run, but I think that bad acting used up a lot of his energy. It also didn’t help that the race was run on a wet course in a driving rain. He was wide coming out of the chute, and wide going into the turn. However he was gaining ground down the backstretch before fading to the back of the pack, finishing more than 11 lengths behind the winner who had a beautiful rail run. I saw enough from him to take a chance on him once again, assuming that he’s acting more professionally in the paddock and at the gate. Scott Lake doesn’t run many horses in turf sprints. He had over 900 starters in the last two years and only 12 of those came in turf sprints. Two of those 12 starters, Big Ern McCracken (#5) and Man With the Money (#7) are facing each other in this race. Man With the Money ran well in a maiden claiming race at Delaware on debut last month. He stalked the pace and came within a half length of winning on debut. He’s a half to Scatify who is graded stakes placed on the dirt and has a game effort in one two career turf sprints. I don’t love horses going from maiden claiming to maiden special weight, but I don’t think this is a particularly deep field. I think he has a chance to give Scott Lake his first win in a turf sprint race in almost two full years. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Trulli Warrior (#6). He is cross-entered in a maiden special weight race at Parx on July 8th, going one mile on the dirt. He ran competitively in his two career starts on the turf, both of which came in New York at two turns. He ran well enough in a dirt sprint last out to suggest that he might be able to compete at this distance today. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go one mile on the dirt in a $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race to start the Early Pick-4. I’m not finding a viable alternative to the favorite, Little Squeeze (#7) in this spot. She was second in the slop at this level when making her first start since January. Jorge Delgado and Maddie Olver have teamed up to win 29% of the time at Monmouth and 36% of the time overall since the beginning of 2024. Most of those races came in 2024 where they had a nice run together. He’s only employed Olver three times at this meet so far, and none of those runners hit the board. Two of those horses were two year olds facing better horses from his barn and the other was a 29-1 longshot on the turf, so this feels like a much better opportunity for them to reunite in the Winner’s Circle. The horse should be more fit and she figures to have a tactical advantage over many of her rivals. Blue Ember (#6) will be the backup for me in this spot. Greg Compton is starting to have a little more of a presence at this meet, and this Arkansas bred filly can be competitive if she’s involved early. She had a miserably wide journey at Delaware last out, so perhaps the change of scenery could help. Blinkers are going on for the first time, which hasn’t been a good angle for Compton’s horses, but it feels like the way to go here. If she can get out to the front, she may be tough to run down.

Race 3:

Three year olds and up will go one mile over the main track in this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race. This race was a bit tricky for me, since I don’t love the two shorter prices in here, Get Like Mike (#3) and Magical Road (#5), However, I have too many concerns with the other five to present a valid argument for playing against them. I’ll try Magical Road as the top pick. He was eligible for this level after winning two back, but he faced N4L claimers last week. He was up against it from the jump, but after being forced steady in a small field, his chances of winning pretty much went up in smoke. Fernando Jara protected him and now he’s back a week later, with Paco Lopez in the irons. If he runs back to his winning effort two back, he’s going to be tough. Get Like Mike has been facing beaten $5K claimers, which, despite the lower tag, can be a tougher level of competition than this N3L level. He ran into runaway winners in his last two starts. Jorge Delgado claimed him for $5K and moves him to this spot, which is why he does so well off the claim. He understands the condition book and uses it to his advantage as much as possible. I like his current form and think he fits well with this group. 

Race 4:

10 fillies and mares are entered in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Park Avenue Betty (#2) feels like the one to beat in this spot. This field is not very deep, and her turf efforts while facing better in Florida and New York were good enough to win with this level here. In a field where there’s limited upside, she’s the one that figures to take a step forward. In terms of finishing in the money, I think Backseat Romance (#1) is a good bet. However, this is a horse that feels like she’s going to be pace compromised and she regularly comes up short. Jam’s Paper Moon (#7) is going to be the backup for me in this spot. She was disappointing last out at Laurel in a similar race where she was the 2-1 favorite. I didn’t like how she was traveling in that race, nor was I a fan of the trip. It is worth mentioning that amateur jockeys were riding those horses that day, so I can be more forgiving. Blinkers go off and Samuel Marin gets the assignment. If this filly had a little more early speed, I’d consider using her more prominently, however, I worry about her being pace compromised as well. 

Race 5:

The race the starts the Late Pick-5 and ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 is a $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. The two shortest prices on the morning line in this race are Bolt d’Plata (#8) and Run Happy Pappy (#5). Both are coming off races on sloppy and sealed courses where they ran better than usual. Run Happy Pappy cleared the N2L condition last time, earning a career best figure in the process while facing only three rivals. Bolt d’ Plata cleared the N2L condition at this distance two back in a race with less early speed. He moved up to a $16K-$14K N3L claiming race which was taken off the turf. He made the early lead, but was clearly second best when going two turns that day. Speed is an asset for both horses, but the horse that is the fastest in the early stages, Toomuchaintenough (#3), breaks inside of both runners while getting a 10 pound apprentice rider in the irons. I think he’s going to outsprint them early. I think the six furlong distance is too far for him though. His presence is going to make things tough on the favorites though. Instead, I’m looking for a horse like Seven Anniversary (#4) to win from off the pace. He was gradually improving over the winter at Tampa and he finally broke through two starts ago to clear the N2L condition, while racing for the same claiming tag. He was claimed out of that race and he ran back one week later when going two turns on a sloppy course. None of that was a formula for success that day, however, he was claimed once again. He comes back three weeks later now and he should get a fast track and a good setup for his new barn. Mo Rum (#2) was claimed for $20K at Oaklawn back in February by Lindsay Schultz, and so far, that claim has not worked out. He was beaten by double digit lengths in three of the four starts for this barn, and finished third the other time. All of those races came against deeper fields in Arkansas. He’s been given a little extra time and now he runs back in a softer spot. He’s another horse that should get a good setup and he might be able to get the jump on the top pick if Samuel Marin can work out the right kind of trip. I will use Bolt d’Plata as a backup in this spot. While the worry about regression on a fast track is fair, he has improved nicely since Silvino Ramirez claimed him at the beginning of the meet. He seems to like the track and this seems like an appropriate level of competition for him. 

Race 6, The $85K Jersey Girl Handicap:

There are three horses in this featured handicap that should take the bulk of the money from players, and I do think that money is likely to be relatively spread out. While this could be a spot where you’d want to make sure that you have coverage with Mia’s Crusade (#3), Precious Avary (#7), and Riding Pretty (#8), I think you can create value by focusing on one of these talented mares. I’m going to be siding with Riding Pretty in this spot, hoping that a return to the turf can right the ship for this Jack Milton mare. She just missed in this race last year where Mia’s Crusade held on by a desperate nose. The pace was honest that day, but I see this as a race where the pace could be more aggressive. Precious Avary wants to be on the lead, and that’s where she’s done all of her best work. Mia’s Crusade has some speed, but she doesn’t have to be on the lead. However, I Can Explain (#1) and Bel Pensiero (#6) have sprinter speed and they should make Precious Avary work harder than I think she’d prefer in the early stages of this one. I think they’ll be battling early with Riding Pretty letting things develop while staying near the back of the pack. Samuel Marin got a feel for her last out when she was second to Mia’s Crusade in the Smart N Classy Handicap. I think the surface switch should allow her to turn the tables today. Mia’s Crusade is the backup for me in this one. She’s been competitive in this race in the last two seasons, winning it last year. She was very sharp last out and could be tough if she can keep that roll going. 

Race 7:

This is another race exclusively for New Jersey bred fillies and mares. Here, they’ll go one mile on the dirt in an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance contest. I think Emily Reward (#8) is very interesting in this race. She;s making her third start off the layoff and routing on the dirt for the first time in her career. She ran races as a three year old that were credible on the main track, finishing 4th at lone odds twice at this condition last summer. Despite finishing 8th, she ran her best figure at two turns on the turf at the Meadowlands in a race where she was very wide throughout. She’s since been transferred to Jorge Delgado’s barn, which is a major shift after racing for a trainer that is 0-13 in 2025 and wasn’t much better in 2024. This barn has good numbers with runners going from sprints to routes and I see her as a candidate to pull off the upset with this field. Both I Can Run (#2) and Jewel of the Ocean (#5) figure to take the bulk of the public money in this spot. Despite being the leading trainer here the last three years, Claudio Gonzalez, who trains I Can Run, continues to run ice cold at this meet, while sending out less starters. This mare is more accomplished, but her only win since August of 2022 came in an off the turf allowance race where she towered over her rivals. She’s been a far cry from her best lately and I’m not convinced we’re going to see one of her better efforts when making her first start in seven months. Jewel of the Ocean is trying two turns for the first time, and this pattern has been successful for Chuck Spina’s runners in the past. However, she is facing winners for the first time while also stretching out after a pair of 5 ½ furlong sprints.  There is upside there for this lightly raced runner, so she’ll be the backup. However, taking too short of a price on this filly that is doing something new for the first time is not a great option. 

Race 8:

The last turf race of the day is a beaten $40K-$30K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. All 10 runners entered in this spot qualified under the N2L condition. They’ve tried to run this race at this condition twice at this meet and both times it was taken off the turf, so barring a freakish pop up storm they should be competing on the lawn today. There are several runners that want to be forward in this spot, so this feels like a good opportunity for Southampton Dock (#7) to break through. She came close when facing better on the turf several times last year. She was a little flat at Laurel in first start on the turf this year, but the pace was on the slower side and she never was really able to gain on the leaders. I think the pace should be honest today, which should help put her over the top. Hala Blue (#9) is a price play that could be ready to move forward. She has two career starts on the turf and four on synthetic. Her turf starts came at Gulfstream when facing better opposition. She was about four lengths behind Unbounded Movement (#2), who figures to be favored today. That one had everything her own way on the front end when facing a smaller field. I think she’ll have more pressure early on in this race on a course that has played fairly at this configuration during the meet. Another price play in this race could be Miss Rummikub (#8). She showed a very nice turn of foot when breaking her with $32K maiden claimers at Tampa back in January. She faced some tough opposition there when moving on to face winners in her next few starts. She ran into Pretty Lavish, who has gone on to be stakes placed here and a Pimlico. She also ran into Nitrogen who has won three straight Grade 2 races since winning the Florida Oaks. Toss her last on the dirt in one of the races that was taken off the turf. She clearly is better on the turf and she figures to have a shot at this level. 

Race 9:

Fillies and mares going six furlongs in a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race, will end the day at Monmouth. Corrib Queen (#1) was second at this level last out when going off at 22-1. She showed a little early speed ,but couldn’t keep pace with the winner in the later stages. Paco Lopez takes over and he’s responsible for both wins at this meet for trainer Sergio Rabadan, This filly has improved enough to graduate in this race today. My Lady Bae (#6) finished two lengths behind the top pick a t this level two back. She tried the turf last out, which was a failure after a poor break. She doesn’t have a ton of early speed, but the added half furlong might give her a fighting shot to make up the ground on the top pick. Nona’s Girl (#2) plummets in class for her third career start. She debuted in a fast maiden special weight race last year and then went to the sidelines for over a year. She came back on the turf where she drew the outside post against a better field .She was never a factor, jogging home well behind the others. She’s back on the dirt and sprinting while getting some serious class relief. She’s a bit of a question mark, but I’m not loving the favorite in this race. She’s worth using as well. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 41/171 (24.0%), $364.00, $2.12 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)