BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 9/13/2024
RACE 1: 2-5-6-4
There’s a dearth of speed in the meet opener but #2 WHISTLER’S STYLE is dangerous on the cutback in distance for Orlando Noda. This barn is 16% with claimers cutting back on dirt over the last 5 years ($2.20 ROI) and this gal can lay a tad closer early in a slower paced race. She should be able to out-finish the majority of her rivals from that position.
RACE 2: 8-9-1-2
#8 BRYANT AND COOPER is a firster who is a full sister of Marvelous Maude. She seems to be training well and meets a weak field this afternoon. The human connections are among the best around when it comes to this type and you can count on her getting a great deal of support at the windows.
RACE 3: 5-7-6-1
#5 DEVIL BLUE DRESS is the one to catch first off a claim by Ilkay Kantarmaci after chasing a hot pace and tiring last time out. She should be well clear early against a weaker field from top to bottom than the one she faced last time out. It would behoove Manny Franco to get after her early to establish a comfortable early advantage.
RACE 4: 8-3-1-7
#8 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE has a bad case of seconditis but has simply been running considerably faster than her rivals in this field. She was a good second last time out when against the grain of the racetrack. On a fair strip she almost can’t lose this race and her trainer finished the back half of the Saratoga meet strongly, posting a positive ROI from 8/14-9/2.
RACE 5: 5-9-2-4
The early speed of #5 MASTER FREUD is a major weapon as it should help him get well clear here. He set a robust pace in the MSW event he exits for open company and understandably tired late. This is a far weaker group of horses this time around and there is no one in here who can keep up with him early.
RACE 6: 7-1-3-4
#7 TRALEE GIRL is a firster by Mendelssohn, a 13% first out sire with 2YOs and this gal posted a :10 workout at the OBS April sale earlier this year. This is a relatively weak bunch, even for this level so she is likely to be a major player at first asking. Tab the tote action to get a line on her ability.
RACE 7: 2-4-6-3
One of the more obvious bet-backs from the strongest bias of the Saratoga season is #2 MYSTIC NIGHT. He was badly compromised by a wide trip last out that included real trouble around the far turn. The ability to lay close to the pace is his best weapon, as the early tempo in here figures to be moderate at best.
RACE 8: 3-9-7-8
#3 MZ BIG BUCKS ran a bang-up race three back on turf and has now had her form somewhat darkened by two subpar efforts on the main track since. She is capable of walloping this field with an effort similar to that which she put forth in late May, laying close to a hot pace and tiring late.
RACE 9: 8-1-4-5
Pending scratches of cross entries into Saturday’s Jockey Club Oaks, #8 DYNAMIC PRICING is the one to beat. She was a good third in the Lake Placid against the grain of the track given the rail was very strong that afternoon. There’s enough pace in here to set up her late bid and the price should be fair in a competitive heat.
RACE 10: 2-6-10-9
#2 AILANI gets a tepid nod given the strength of the Saratoga season her trainer had. There’s virtually no pedigree here and she did a modest amount of running on debut. However, that race came against considerably better and she now gets blinkers and a sizable weight break from a cozy inside draw.
SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 422-113-77-52 $817.90
