BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 9/20/2024
RACE 1: 9-8-1-6
#9 HIT THAT REVIEW ran a bang-up race at 2nd asking at Kentucky Downs and now looks to clear the maiden ranks for Brendan Walsh. This colt has upside given he’s only two starts into his career and he drew nicely on the outside to stalk this pace and pounce when ready. He is a deserving heavy favorite.
RACE 2: 1-6-5-4
In a Grade IV allowance, #1 KUBRICK gets the nod as he’ll be treated with Lasix for the first time since his North American debut. He was a blowout winner that afternoon in impressive fashion and should be a strong late threat today on the class drop. The rail draw affords him the opportunity to save ground to boot.
RACE 3: 7-2-8-1
#7 DEBATE needs some pace help but is a must-bet given the trip he endured two starts back. He was wide the entire trip on a day when the rail was gold at the Spa. While the connections are really trying different options off the claim, he can be a player at this trip with the right kind of early setup.
RACE 4: 2-1-6-7
#2 JUST KATHERINE is a late runner who is dropping in class this afternoon for Jose Jimenez. The best races she’s run make her a major threat and she should get some pace help as well. Her losing effort here in the Bed O’ Roses was easily good enough to win this thing comfortably and she’ll be a good price today.
RACE 5: 8-1-7-4
#8 REFLEXIVITY is the likeliest single in this Pick.6 sequence given the drop in class and speed figure edge. She has consistently run faster than her rivals in this field and should be a major threat from just off the pace. The early tempo in her most recent start was strong and that worked against her given she was hard ridden early to be forward.
RACE 6: 5-1-2-10
#5 IMMIGRATION LAW goes out for a dangerous barn and has been training well for Bruce Levine. She is by 20% debut sire Violence and is out of a dam who banked over 240k on the racetrack. The favorite is drawn on the rail with no margin for error so there’s real intrigue in finding an alternative.
RACE 7: 2-10-5-6
#2 PENTATHLON is facing winners for the first time off a facile score in a MSW event at the Spa. He was a winner going away in the closing stages of that one mile event and should have no problem with 9 panels based on running style and pedigree. The inside draw also affords him the opportunity to save ground in a bulky field.
RACE 8: 6-10-9-5
#6 TOY COLLECTOR had a brutal trip last time out when 6th at 17-1 against similar foes upstate. Jockey Jose Ortiz was typically going through the motions for the first 6 furlongs of that affair before she unleashed a sudden move that preceded getting caught in traffic. She is a major threat with a cleaner go of it, especially if she stays closer to the early pace.
RACE 9: 1-9-10-7
All signs point to #1 PAST TENSE being very tough to handle in this affair as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She has been facing considerably better at longer distances and should get some pace to run at today. The concerns are that this barn never wins anymore, and she also has been most effective going longer.
BELMONT AT THE BIG A 2024 STATS: 39-11-7-1 $78.10
