BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 9/27/2024
RACE 1: 6-2-5-3
#6 MY MAGIC WAND is training well for career start #2 for Greg Sacco. She was wide much of the way in her unveiling on a day when being inside was advantageous, and she now gets John Velazquez for career start #2. The outside post should enable her to stalk the pace and pounce late at a square price.
RACE 2: 5-13-9-12
The cutback on #5 TETA’S TROTTER is interesting given the quality of the speed figures he has run up to this point. He was a debut winner and wound up facing NY bred allowance company in three starts since. He should be able to settle and make one run and the cutback can work at 6 panels.
RACE 3: 6-7-8-3
#6 MASTER OF ARMS feels like a horse who is in the midst of a forward move and was claimed last out by Jamie Begg. He can sit just off the pace and pounce late this afternoon, which would make him a major threat at a square price. The likelihood of a modest pace helps his chances given his tactical speed.
RACE 4: 3-4-1-9
#3 ROHAN gets the nod in a totally wide-open field with no form. This son of The Factor has a good pedigree and was expected to fare better on debut. He did no running at all after breaking slowly and now looks to improve on the class drop at second asking. The blinkers being added should sharpen him up early and that will help his chances.
RACE 5: 2-7-1-8
#2 DANCING RINCA can settle off the pace and make a run here for trainer Neil Drysdale. This barn has sent a few horses over to NY and this one is in good form having run well last out at Kentucky Downs. He is a one-run closer who is pace dependent, but he’ll get some early zip to run at late.
RACE 6: 5-6-4-3
#5 PRAETOR is the one to beat at second asking after a solid effort in one of the better 2YO MSW races of the Saratoga meet. He broke poorly and made a bold middle move to reach contention before flattening out late. The likelihood he improves at second asking is high and he is a deserving favorite this afternoon.
RACE 7: 8-4-6-1
#8 ENFUEGA is interesting at a square price after chasing a hot pace then ducking down to the rail last time out. There is an argument the rail was not the place to be last time out, and that should only bolster your confidence in this daughter of Flameaway. She is a contender based on her best races and will offer value.
RACE 8: 5-4-6-3
The “fresh” faces in this race offer appeal and they are #5 SARATOGA FLASH and #4 HUSH OF A STORM. The former has enough speed to stay close from the start and has run well against open company runners in the past. His lack of consistent wins is disconcerting, but his morning line of 6-1 offers plenty of appeal.
RACE 9: 3-1-10-9
#3 LOTUS PETAL is the horse to beat at second asking after a troubled trip on debut. The barn has a poor record with 2nd timers in turf routes, but the inside post and presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. has to help his cause. There are a number of contenders signed up in this field and this one just offers a tad more appeal.
BELMONT AT THE BIG A 2024 STATS: 76-25-13-6 $144.00
