BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS– 10/12/2024
RACE 1: 5-6-2-1
#5 BEARY FUNNY ran two solid races prior to being claimed and now comes back somewhat quickly for the new connections. He has a history of going long and cuts back in distance today, which should give him the opportunity to sit back and make one run at a square price. The 4-1 morning line is certainly appealing.
RACE 2: 1A-7-6-3
#1A MASTER OF ARMS is in razor sharp form at the moment and should be a strong stretch threat once again today. He faced a salty bunch of 40k sellers last time out and ran well to be second at 9/2. He has a good late kick and should get some pace to run at this afternoon for Linda Rice.
RACE 3: 5-1/1A-4-8
The pace advantage of #5 SPIRITUAL LADY is significant here as she goes 2nd off a layoff and stays at the 25k level. The pace she contested last time was solid and she grudgingly gave way, so there’s plenty to like about that effort. If able to get clear and establish command, she is a major threat to go the distance.
RACE 4: 3-5-2B-9
The slow pace encountered by #3 PAPA ROCKET last time out had a clear negative effect on his chances. He weakened a bit late after a wide trip following a slow break and he should be much more suited to this type of race flow. There’s enough pace signed up to give him a clear target late and that’s enough to land here.
RACE 5: 4-2-6-7
Maybe it’ll be the shorter trip, the jockey change, or the weaker competition but #4 MACANGA is going to find a way to wire one of these graded stakes. The 9 furlong trip is likely better for her than the marathon from last time, but the clear issue is her inability to be rated on the front end. If she can slow down at some point and get a breather, she’s a major threat to stay the trip.
RACE 6: 6-4-9-2
#6 KEEWAYDIN ran a bang-up race on debut, surging late to narrowly miss after rating just off the pace. The maiden event he exits has come back awfully strong and he should only improve with experience. The price will be paltry, but he is a very likely winner and a horse you can run some of your multi-race bets through on this card.
RACE 7: 4-9-1-5
#4 SECRET MONEY had nothing go her way at Kentucky Downs last time out and should be set for an improved run here. The 6 furlong trip is perfect for her, and she has had bad trips in two straight outings. The slow break and wide trip ruined her chances last time, and she had traffic issues two back at the Spa. Here’s to hoping for a clean trip!
RACE 8: 5-2-8-4
The wide trip last time out for #5 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD wrecked his chances, but he still finished with interest to round out the exacta. He’s now clearly the one to beat in an honestly run race over a fair course. He was wide two back when you wanted to save ground as well, so there’s reason to believe he’ll move forward here.
RACE 9: 4-3-9-8
#4 MAMA’S GOLD improved by leaps and bounds last time out first time for Jimmy Ferraro and is now the one to catch second off a layoff. He will be very dangerous if able to get loose on the front end and his best races are good enough to take this thing. The connections will ensure a fair price to boot.
RACE 10: 9-1-6-4
The lead should belong to #9 BETTER BE SMART early this afternoon and that might be enough to get her home. She improved last time out on the move to the maiden claiming ranks and was one of the only runners to stay start to finish. There’s precious little speed in this field, which is also somehow weaker than the one she ran in last time out.
RACE 11: 2-12-7-4
It was clear that #2 ATOMIC AGE had touted himself in the mornings prior to his debut, as that was a main reason why his odds dipped below 2-1. He did very little running but was wide much of the way in a race dominated on the front end. The inside draw helps him save ground today and trainer Chad Brown is 29% with 2YO second timers in MSW races on turf over the last five years ($2.37 ROI).
thanks for info.