BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 10/05/2024
RACE 1: 7-1-5-6
#7 IRON SIGHT has a modest dam side pedigree, though his 2nd dam was graded stake caliber during a brief career. This colt went for a pretty penny at auction and appears to be training well for the unveiling. The experienced runners in here are modest at best and that opens the door for a first timer.
RACE 2: 10-6-7-4
#10 BOOKITWITHHADDAD is a second timer who debuted at Saratoga and was bet heavily down to 7/2. He now shows up as a new gelding and will be a square price in this wide open field. The outside draw is ideal and runners from the Horacio De Paz barn generally improve with experience.
RACE 3: 4-5-7-6
#4 EQUIVOQUE is returning off a lengthy break after two starts at the beginning of his 3YO season where he showed serious potential. This son of Good Magic won a loaded MSW race on debut at Keeneland that included eventual Grade I winner Mullikin and he now lands in a good spot off the bench where he’ll be favored.
RACE 4: 10-8-5-1
#10 LEGAL DEAL is in from Pennsylvania for Jamie Ness, who has had plenty of success in NY over the years. He draws well outside to stalk and pounce and is likely to be a major threat today as one of the choices.
RACE 5: 2-3-7-5
This group of 3YOs is crying out for a fresh face and #2 DATAMAN may be just that. He’s stepping up in competition and losing Lasix, but that has not been a big issue for veteran trainer Brian Lynch. The inside draw should afford him the opportunity to stalk and save ground, though it would hardly surprise if he ends up on the lead given the lack of pace signed up in here.
RACE 6: 8-9-1-2
The strength of the local efforts of #8 ALOGON is too much to overlook as he bids to make it two in a row following a win at Parx. The versatility of this son of California Chrome is notable, as he has the speed to get involved eary, but can also comfortably sit off the pace and pounce late.
RACE 7: 10-3-1-9
#10 ICONA MAMA ran a better race than it looks last time out as she stalked a solid pace, made a move and was outfinished late. While it’s disconcerting that the runner-up from that affair was walloped on Friday afternoon at Keeneland, this gal looms a player today. She should be just off the pace in a race weakened significantly by scratches.
RACE 8: 10-6-2-9
In all likelihood, #10 CHANCER MCPATRICK is going to be an underlay here. He is a deep closing type who needs things to set up in front of him and the mile is uncharted territory. Nonetheless, he is the one to beat based on the talent we’ve seen in the first two starts and because he has an edge when it comes to seasoning.
RACE 9: 3-8-4-12
#3 TRANSACTIONAL was dropped in class last time out and his connections got away with it. He won and earned a speed figure that would make him competitive in most allowance races around these parts. He is, unsurprisingly, not in for the tag today and should be in position to make noise from just off the pace.
RACE 10: 3-1-4-5
#3 OFF SCRIPT has been expected to win in her first two starts and is 0-2. Why go back to the well you ask? She has run speed figures that are easily good enough to win and she was a tad too close to a hot pace last time out. The interesting runner is the SoCal invader #1 USHA, who is facing NY breds for the first time.
RACE 9: 8-1/1A-4-12
This is a substantial class drop for #8 VACATION DANCE, who goes 2nd off a layoff since returning to the care of John Kimmel. He was nowhere near the lead last time out and the pace was slow, so you can excuse his poor effort. This is a big field with more confirmed speed and he has done good work here in the past.
RACE 9: 4-9-1-5
#4 BOURBON OUTLAW is a late runner who improved last time out when 2nd against similar foes. There’s hardly a standout in this bunch, so why not try a horse who has consistently run fast enough to win when running the distance they will today?
BELMONT AT THE BIG A 2024 STATS: 97-30-19-10 $178.30
