BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 9/15/2024
RACE 1: 5-4-3-1
The pedigree on #5 LAVENDER DISASTER is top notch, given that her dam was a Grade 3 turf winner for this barn. She is reportedly training very well for her unveiling and this is a stable that knows its way around 2YO turf racing. Expect her to be tough to handle on debut as a heavy favorite.
RACE 2: 5-6-7-8
#5 FAITH appears to be training strongly for Bill Mott and debuts in a winnable spot. There are no highly regarded first timers in here and she should be quick off the mark based on the recent gate drill. The dam here was a turf winner and she’s dropped one winner from three to race. Tab the tote action for more clues.
RACE 3: 5-2-1-6
#5 BOLD AMBITION is first off a claim by a higher percentage outfit. He simply needs to duplicate his last race to contend here, as he was very sharp in wiring a field of 75k maiden sellers going a mile. That came on a sloppy track, but he is more than capable of handling a dry surface given past tries.
RACE 4: 1-6-2-3
#1 COSTA TERRA rallied nicely to be second last time out at 5-1 at the Spa and now figures to be close to favoritism coming back downstate. He was well off the pace last time out and finished strongly, unleashing a late kick we’ve grown accustomed to seeing with frequency. His issue of late has been winning, as he arrives on a 10-race losing streak.
RACE 5: 1-4-5-10
#1 GENEROUS LUVA is now in the care of Wayne Potts after a failure last time out for Rick Dutrow, Jr. This filly has speed and showed it last out before abruptly tiring in her first start for a tag. The weight break here with Christopher Elliott in the irons is a good thing as she figures to be pushed to the lead right off the break. This streaky barn has started the meet hot as well.
RACE 6: 6-4-9-7
#6 AGENT CREED goes first off a claim by Ray Handal after enduring a wide trip last time out going long on the Saratoga turf. That was a period of time when saving ground was essential, and this son of Jimmy Creed never saw the rail. He gets an upgrade at pilot and should be able to settle and make one run in this race that is also loaded with speed.
RACE 7: 6-5-4-3
#6 GRINGOTTS is a candidate to win here on the return from Monmouth given the races she’s run in her last two. She missed by a head last time out showing far more early speed than we’d normally see from her, and her Thorograph sheet exhibits a strong recent pattern. If she is able to duplicate her last performance she’ll be a major threat for top honors.
RACE 8: 2-4-5-10
As much as an alternative is desired, #2 JAVA BUZZ is the one to catch for trainer Rudy Rodriguez 2nd off a claim. It has been a big edge to race forwardly on the outer turf and specifically to be on the rail. That’s the case with this speedster and he can rebound off the disappointing run last time out.
RACE 9: 4-7-3-5
#4 TIME STONE is going to be forwardly placed in a race devoid of early speed. She was within range of a very strong pace last time out before weakening late and appears to be loose on paper in here. She worked a bullet since that last outing that signals her readiness to leave the maiden ranks here.
BAQ STATS AS OF 09-14: 21-8-5-1 $61.30
