BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS– 10/24/24
RACE 1: 6-4-2-3
It doesn’t appear as if there’s much competition for #6 MILLIE JEAN in the opener as she moves in for a tag for the first time. She has faced better throughout her career than she faces in this spot and should have enough speed to get firmly involved from the outset. Her price will likely be well below even money.
RACE 2: 5-2-6-4
#5 ENGINEER EMPIRE hasn’t been seen since December when he scored at today’s distance by open lengths. Trainer Christophe Clement is 33% with dirt routers off 180+ day breaks ($3.51 ROI) and this guy can race forwardly early. He’s the one to beat and should be a fair price when all is said and done.
RACE 3: 7-3-1A-2
#7 NOLITA was wide and against the grain of the racetrack last time out when beaten as the 8/5 fave against similar foes. She should rebound here on a fairer strip given the way she had run in four prior tries. The outside post will enable Junior Alvarado to stalk and pounce for a barn that has been surprisingly quiet at this stand.
RACE 4: 5-3-8-9
#5 JUSTHEART made a meaningful off the pace move last time out in a race totally dominated on the front end. She has improved by leaps and bounds since returning to turf and now bids for a second win this afternoon. The pace is the issue for her as she lacks enough early speed to stay close in the opening stages and will need some help up front.
RACE 5: 5-4-9-3
In what amounts to a two-horse race, #5 STAMP OF APPROVAL gets the nod because she has a bit more speed than #4 ITS SATISFACTUAL. The former made the lead last out and was collared late in a key race won by recent N1X winner Dancing Dean with subsequent MSW winner La Salvadorena checking in a good second.
RACE 6: 7-1A-2-4
#7 CHRIS’S REVENGE is a strong player here at second asking for Brittany Russell after a debut where he was steadied shortly after the start and put out of position. A cleaner break is going to help his cause and he should benefit from having a race behind him as well. This stable has good numbers across the board, and a 33% strike rate with 2ndtime starters in MSW races on dirt overall.
RACE 7: 3-5-1-6
#3 EL GRANDE O is back off a layoff for Linda Rice after a very strong winter over this oval. This NY bred stake winner has a great deal of early speed and should be forwardly placed today in a race with plenty of zip. That may prompt Dylan Davis to take him in hand early and he’ll be in position to pounce late.
RACE 8: 2-1-9-5
The nightcap is a skull-buster long on the weeds and #2 ROHAN looks like the horse from the 4th race on 9/27 that you want to bet back. He made a prolonged wide move last time out and was gassed late as the race fell apart. If able to get more involved early today he’ll be a serious threat at what should be a good price given the connections here.
