SARATOGA – 7/15/22
RACE 1: 6-5-4-7
#6 CAMP AKEELA is a firster by Laoban, whose progeny hit at a 12% clip on debut. She is out of a mare who was a winner and she has dropped 5 winners so far. This barn is 25% with 2YO firsters on the dirt over the last five years ($2.85 ROI) and this hardly looks like the most robust field. #5 IM JUST KIDDIN is kin to 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold. She is by Justify, who has 2 debut winners in his freshman crop, including a graded stake winner after Thursday’s Schuylerville. #4 LADY MINE is the most experienced runner in the field and showed marked improvement at second asking. She hails from a low percentage barn but is worthy of consideration for a minor share.
RACE 2: 3-6-1-2
#3 INVALUABLE is a speedy trainee from the barn of Robertino Diodoro and she is working her way back into form at the moment. She can be prominent throughout in this affair and Diodoro is 18% with claimers on the dirt at the Spa over the last five years ($2.17 ROI). #1 REMAIN ANONYMOUS goes first off a claim by Brad Cox and should be a threat in crunch time. She’s a prior winner over this oval and fits well here from a class perspective. Her workouts since her last start look awfully strong to boot. #2 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is a late runner who was put to close to the pace last time out before tiring in the closing stages. She has been successful here in the past and fits like a glove in here from a class perspective.
RACE 3: 3-6-4-1
#3 WHISTLER’S HONOR was compromised by an awful trip last time out when jockey Jose Ortiz opted to stay inside for this colt to make a final bid. He wound up stymied in traffic and now goes 2nd off a lengthy layoff in a race that should have more than enough early pace. #6 URAGANO was away slowly last time out and wound up rushing into the race to contest the pace. He improved significantly in his first turf start and still has plenty of upside. A cleaner break and a pace-stalking trip can make him a major threat here at a price. #4 BIONDI is a speedy son of Sky Mesa who made the lead last time out before weakening late. He now makes the third start of his form cycle and should be a player from the outset. Trainer H. James Bond was 1-33 at the recently concluded Belmont meet and is annually at his best at the Spa.
RACE 4: 1-7-4-8
It is never exciting to take the favorite in a scenario such as this, but #1 ACTUALIZE is supposed to win this race. He drops back in for a tag and should be the one to catch from the inside. His best races are far better than anything any rival in here has put forth, and that solidifies him as the favorite. #7 SUPPRESSOR also has speed and should be a threat from the outset today. He goes 2nd off the bench after chasing a hot pace and tiring late last time out. This is another class drop and this level is likely exactly where he belongs. #4 INSPIRED MISCHIEF is a second timer dropping in class for trainer Todd Pletcher. This colt did little to no running on debut when stuck inside at Monmouth, which is usually a place where you can lose a little more ground and have an edge.
RACE 5: 10-12-2-5
#10 AL’S PRINCE was likely a tad too forwardly placed last time out when he wound up 6th in a race run at a strong early clip. The race he exits was dominated on the inside and this son of Cairo Prince chased the pace wide much of the way. He can be within range early once again and should be a threat in the closing stages. #12 BORN A GAMBLER is another player both pace-wise and in the grand scheme of things, but he drew a horrific outside post position. He will have to be used hard to overcome this draw, but enters in strong form for a high percentage trainer-jockey combo, specifically at the Spa. #2 GOOCH GO BRAGH is a late runner who is dropping in for a tag for trainer Danny Gargan. This barn had a couple of runners perform well on opening day, and this colt was put in a tough spot chasing the hot pace last time out before tiring. If he sits back to make one run his chances will improve.
RACE 6: 11-7-9-5
f#11 REGAL SPEAKER drops back into the NY bred ranks after four straight failures against open company. He made a brief move around the turn last time out before flattening out and now has to overcome a wide draw. His best races when facing NY breds make him tough to handle, with the only question being whether he can still run anymore. #7 RUSE came to life last year at the Spa, breaking his maiden before taking his first start against winners as well. His last race was arguably his best to date, as he tracked a hot pace and took over before getting run down late. The pace in here should be solid, but he is capable of rating just off of it and getting the jump on the closers. #9 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR prolonged his move last time out before coming up just short. The field came together rapidly in the closing stages of his last start, a race that this Chad Brown trainee likely needed off the bench. Look for him to make noise late
RACE 7: 9-4-6-5
#9 ROMAN EMPIRE was on the wrong part of the racetrack last time out and now rerturns off a layoff. He excels at this type of trip and the fact he can sit just off the pace is a major edge. You’ll get an attractive price on this son of Empire Maker who has shown no shortage of stamina in his career. #4 AMERICAN PURE was ineffective on a sloppy track last time out and now figures to improve on the class drop. Trainer Brad Cox has a good record with dirt starters racing for tags for the first time and he has the speed to be a factor from the opening bell today. #6 I AM THE CASH MAN is capable of getting control early in this affair. He is a threat to go the distance if he gets a clear early lead and the price here will be rather appealing. This is the upsetter to include in your Pick 5.
RACE 8: 11-4-8-3
The race that #11 EMPRESS TIGRESS ran last time out was quite strong and three of the run-backs from it have posted enormous improvement in terms of Beyer Speed Figures. She is the 2nd foal to race out of an unraced dam, but her dam was kin to turf stakes winners Stays in Vegas and Miss Technicality. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is 6 for his last 21 with runners going from synthetics to turf ($2.90 ROI). #4 ARTOS is a late runner who was up for second in the Stormy Blues at Laurel Park last month. She was in tight in upper stretch before splitting rivals to make a late bid. She should be more dangerous if able to produce one late run on the outside this afternoon. You’ll also get a square price on this daughter of Kodiac. #8 POPPY FLOWER surged late to win the aforementioned Stormy Blues. She had the run of the race rallying down the outside to win going away. She has upside given the improvement shown of late as a 3YO and there’s enough pace in here to set up her late bid.
RACE 9: 9-4-1-6
#7 PUBLIC SECTOR was compromised by a slow pace last time out when third in the Poker at Belmont. He should get a much stronger pace to run at this afternoon and will offer quite a bit more value than he has in his last two outings. This trip should yield his very best, and that makes him a contender. #1 SET PIECE is a late runner who rolled home to win the Dinner Party last time out with little to no pace setup. This Brad Cox trainee ran arguably the best race in last year’s Fourstardave going this trip and will get a stronger pace setup today. Look for him to make noise late. #3 MIRA MISSION improved by leaps and bounds last time out in the Old Forester Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. She now comes back from a break after being re-routed here to this engagement. He can be a threat if he gets the jump on the late runners today.
RACE 10: 9-5-2-8
Trainer Dave Donk had a huge Belmont meet and now brings back #9 SHESAWILDJOKER off a layoff. Donk is 2-15 over the last five years with dirt sprinters off of 100-200 day breaks ($3.87 ROI). This filly is quick enough to grab command early and that would make her a threat to go the distance. #5 VALLARAND scored an upset win here last August and should be in a similar pace stalking spot in this event. She has the tactical speed to stay close and returns off a layoff for a high percentage barn. Trainer Charlie Baker is 22% with dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks over the last five years ($2.11 ROI). #2 ROSSA VELOCE was compromised by a wide trip last time out against a field of N2X optional sellers. She is quick enough to be a pace factor from the outset here and is in many ways the horse to beat.
