SARATOGA – 6/4/2025
By Nick Tammaro | @NTamm1215
Belmont week analysis brought to you by NY Thoroughbred Breeders! Check out more at nytbreeders.org
RACE 1: 2-5-7-6
#2 AWAKENED gets the nod given his form against tougher competition and the fact that he’s a Grade I winner over this course and distance.
RACE 2: 2-5-1-3
The last time that #2 CALLING CARD ran against NY breds around one turn, he scored by 17+ lengths. His connections got ambitious thereafter and he’s now landed back in a winnable spot for Mike Maker. The pace should work in his favor and we’ll get a good price to boot.
RACE 3: 11-2-4-6
#11 JUST ADD WATER is a second time starter who debuted against open company and ran a bang-up race to be fourth. She broke slowly in that affair before making a big, wide move on the turn. While she ultimately flattened out, it was a solid run that should set her up nicely for this class drop at 2nd asking.
RACE 4: 5-1-8-7
#5 DRAKE’S PASSAGE woke up last time out when 5th against open N2X rivals and is a candidate to take a real step forward here. This multiple NY bred stake winner has shown flashes of graded stake caliber ability, but somehow lost his way last summer. His back for is too good to overlook, especially when he ran better last time than it looks on paper. The track profile that day favored runners on the rail and he was 3-4 wide the entire trip.
RACE 5: 4-3-10-2
The pace advantage held by #4 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN is significant, especially given how well he ran last time out against open company stakes foes. While this will be his first try against elders, he is likely to be loose early once again and should be tough to run down with anything close to his last.
RACE 6: 5-2-7-6
#5 ACCELERATING will be close to favoritism when all is said and done given the way she ran in two starts here last summer. Nothing went right two back when breaking from the rail at Oaklawn and her subsequent outing was bad, but an improvement from her 2025 debut. This is a spot where she should control things early, and the winning pilot from her first two is back on board.
RACE 7: 7-9-6-1
The longshot potential of #7 RUSE is enough for me to land there. He comes out of a poor effort in the Appleton, but his running line belies his actual performance given that he was hopelessly wide, bumped on the backstretch and made a middle move before flattening out late. This is a spot where he can stalk the pace and pounce late at a big price.
RACE 8: 8-9-1-4
There’s just no reason to be against #8 STERLING SILVER here, as she is miles better than her competition. She exits a strong effort in the Ruffian and now moves back to a distance where she missed by a nose last fall at the Big A. That effort was clearly good enough to win this handily, and she should get a strong pace to run at in the closing stages.
RACE 9: 10-5-1-9
The jockey switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. has to give you some confidence in #10 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE. That’s not to disparage any of her prior riders, it’s just that his specialty is timing off the pace turf moves, especially from tricky post positions. This gal figures to be in stalk and pounce range and will almost certainly be favored when all is said and done.
RACE 10: 1-4-10-11
The rail draw on #1 SIR OSCAR is ideal, as he’ll be able to save ground throughout following a strong debut performance at Tampa Bay Downs. He rallied nicely into a slow pace and now re-surfaces against NY breds as a new gelding. Improvement is undoubtedly expected now that he has his last race behind him.
