It’s a bit of a departure on the new NYRA Bets Pick Five Podcast. First, DG meteorologist Marshall Sterling is here with the latest on the Derby weather. Then we bring in pro horseplayer Frank McGoey for his thoughts on who looks hot and who does not at Churchill this week. Our third and final guest is Clocker John Nichols, who gives us his run for Oaks day and offers additional training thoughts. Finally PTF and JK go over the Saturday Belmont Late Pick Five.
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Hello and welcome to the NYRA bets late pick five podcast. I’m your host, Peter Thomas four, and a towel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker for a very special edition. This third NYRA Betts show. We’re doing. Is going to be very different than what you’ve heard so far and different than what you’re going to hear in the future, because it’s the Kentucky Derby.
And as we know, the Kentucky Derby just takes all the oxygen out of the room. That’s not quite true with as much time as there is between races on Derby day. There are other tracks to be paying attention to, and Belmont certainly should be at the top of the list. And in fact, at the end of this show, J K and I will take a quick look at the Saturday.
NYRA bets late, pick five, but. The first three guests we’re going to have are here to talk about the Kentucky Derby. And the first one is a guest. Unlike any we’ve ever had before off, they are, I jokingly called him a degenerate meteorologist, but in real life, he’s a wildfire researcher. He is horseplayer Marshall Sterling.
Marshall, how are you today? And yourself? Things are good. I mean, Derby chaos that threw us for an absolute loop last night about Omaha beach. We went ahead and did a quick emergency podcast on that topic, but we have our NYRA show and I’m super excited to get an opportunity to talk to you about what the conditions are going to be on the ground.
Marshall, what can we expect in terms of this weather? And what’s your degree of confidence about what we’re going to see weather wise? Yeah. So, uh, uh, I went to school for meteorology. Um, I have my bachelor’s degree in meteorology and then, uh, got my master’s done at Michigan state. Um, and, uh, so when it comes to the weather for Derby, uh, it looks like I would, I would fully expect the rain to start, uh, Probably around 6:00 AM or so in the morning and be very consistent, you know, very study kind of gray and gloomy day.
Pretty much all day. I actually don’t see the rain actually ending until probably early Sunday morning. That is not music to my ears. I didn’t introduce him properly at the beginning of the show. I’ll blame Derby, chaos, but we have with us here, the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen JK. When you hear that weather forecast, how does it make you change?
What you were thinking about these two days of racing, if at all? Well, you know, my top pick, uh, for the Derby is, is, you know, we’ve talked about it already as a probable and, and the way that he ran on the slop, not too concerned, Marshall actually, and we’ll explain how he feels about the Oaks day situation, which I was actually a little bit more concerned about because I feel like I’m going to be making obviously a pretty heavy play that day.
And, and so the conditions of that track with one of those races, including a turf race, Were more important to me. So I’ll let Marshall kind of give his information about Oaks David. I’m a little bit more excited about, uh, his prognosis there. Yeah. So for the Oaks day, I would, I would fully expect, uh, the rain to, to, uh, rain sometime in the morning.
It would end in the morning. Um, so we’ll, we’ll get a pretty significant rainfall over night, but, uh, with the rain ending probably early in the morning on Friday, uh, it’ll allow for the track to dry out. So I would fully expect the track to be pretty much dry by the first post. On Friday, uh, in the turf we’ll, we’ll obviously have some give in it, but it’s not going to be, uh, the sort of mess that we had last year.
How does that change things for you JK? It doesn’t change them at all. I, I think that a newspaper of record obviously has run well over a soft turf course in a software course at, at Churchill, uh, last year and the breeders’ cup. So, and she was extremely impressive there. So that’s not a concern. Uh, McKinsey ran well enough in the slop on February 2nd when he, when he was beaten by battle of midway.
So I don’t see any real issues there. I think my biggest concern obviously is, is what the price is going to be on that double. So I’m definitely glad it’s not going to be raining all day. Cause that was a concern of mine. I’d rather it just be a fast, fair racetrack. And it sounds like a Marshall feels like it should, should dry out by then that, that track that Churchill, if you’ve ever been a I’ve been to, like I said, 10 derbies in a row.
And I’ve seen all kinds of different weather conditions. If it stops raining, and you can get a little bit of sunshine for awhile, that track dries out faster than any track I’ve ever seen. While we have you, I did want to ask one more question about how you’ve ever used your weather predicting. See what I did there, weather predicting skills to aid you in your horseplay.
Well, it’s certainly an advantage when it comes to two big days like this, where, you know, when, um, When the rain will be coming in and, and more importantly, when will be ending. Um, so, uh, changing track conditions, um, really, really can, uh, can provide insight when it comes to looking at horses. And, you know, in, in meteorology, all we do is look for patterns and look for continuous patterns that happen.
So I think those analytical skills, um, translate directly to, to looking at the form and, and trying to figure out the puzzle of, uh, of. Horse racing in general. Last question, before we move on and get some words from the grounds at Churchill about how some of these horses are doing in the morning, generally speaking, in your opinion, who does a better slash worse job, professional handicappers, or professional other predictors?
I don’t know. I feel like they’re, they’re fairly wanting to see him at that point. Uh, there there’s a lot of, uh, A lot of tablets out there that, uh, that think that they’re the best in, especially in the meteorology field. There’s, there’s a lot of big heads out there and there is nothing more humbling than, uh, in trying to forecast the weather just like it is trying to predict a horse race and then just absolutely fall on your face with it.
So I love it. I love both aspects. Sounds like you’re calling that one, a dead heat. Marshall, thank you so much. We’ll get you back on soon. Great speaking with you. Hey, thank you so much. I appreciate it. And now making yet another triumphant return to the, in the money media airwaves, as part of this NYRA bets podcast, we have the ever popular Frank McGaughey Frank, what’s going on?
What are you doing right now? Heading to the, uh, airport in Indiana to pick up the gangs from new Orleans is flying in private. I was only advanced scout team. Hopefully I’ll be, I’ll do well. And I’ll be on the private plane home. Before we get started. This is an appearance I’ve been waiting for you. And you’ve had such success.
Your brothers had such success in these live bankroll tournaments, and you’ve attributed a lot of it to your ability to go out and look at horses in the morning. You’ve been doing that this week at church, and we’re going to talk about that in a minute. But before we get into that, Frank, I wanted to ask you, how was your day yesterday?
Yesterday was interesting. Yesterday was actually a Derby first. The knots I’ve played the late pick four from the urgent care on Preston Louisville. How’d you end up there? One of the guys on his trip. Had been hacking up half along. He kept telling me it was allergies. Finally. I said, brother, you’re going to die and I’m not going to let you die ropes to emergency care now.
So I brought him over there. Well, of course we made some bets before we left the track. If he died while we were making the beds. So be it. But we got over there and it wasn’t bad cause I had plenty of beer. I stepped in the dam. It’s so weak. I sat there in the urgent care while he was with this Indian doctor.
Who? I couldn’t even read the diploma from when I graduated. I don’t know. He might’ve been a vet for all I know, but anyway, he gave him four scripts. None of which looked interesting to me, by the way, I’m going to let them keep them off. And, uh, yeah, and I took a nasty beat. I needed a Cory in the second, the last leg.
It’s 27 to one and I Ronica, he got beat by another 27 to one, two cash for pick five tickets. So it probably costs me like 10 bucks, but I hadn’t ever. Lost the pick five at an urgent care. There you go. Then this Derby experience, well, first time for everything. Oh, that’s a pretty good one. I’m glad. I I’m glad I got tickets to ask you about that one.
Yeah. And I know what you got. I know where you got a chipped on this because, uh, I was supposed to be clock out for dinner and I couldn’t because of all this mess anyway. So be it let’s go on to bigger and better thing. Let’s do it. And how who’s looking good or what I think this is the best thing about you.
I don’t even need to be here. Frank. I could just turn on a recorder and you asked the questions and. You know, it’s like, it’s like a top, but a top that you don’t even have to spin it. Just go. So let’s hear it, man. What have you been seeing out there? Uh, I went to the backset on Wednesday morning and the, and the reason I like doing this beat is because we used to watch and races from home on TV and each track has different vantage points for the cameras.
You can kind of get an idea about the size of horses when they’re running next to each other, but it’s hard to compare them from track to track. Because you got different camera angles and things like that. So at a mile and a quarter, since every stride is a breath in a race horse, I like to see who’s got it.
The longest stride when they’re galloping, that’ll give me an idea of who I think is going to get the distance the best. And then also just like to see the other physicality as stuff, you know, who looks the best and who’s coats doing well and things like that. So that’s why, I mean, I find it beneficial to be out there at least once and see them all in the flesh.
When they all come together at Churchill, there were a couple of things this week that stood out. There are a lot of tosses, I think, courses that are just too short bodied and won’t get them out on a quarter. There are a few horses that definitely caught the eye. One of whom obviously scratched Omaha beach.
He looked, I mean, I actually took a picture. I’m getting a bath in the morning, uh, yesterday morning and then, uh, he winds up scratching. So it’s ironic. I figured you for a bath shot guy, and now we know you’re the you’re, you’re the, you’re the jinx. You got a bit of the, the, the, that about you too. Um, I’m a horse peeping top, apparently.
Yeah. Anyway, um, Couple, I caught my eye this week and probably looks really good. He’s way more. He’s he looks, he looks the most athletic of the budge. He’s got a, he just he’s looks like he’s feel unhappy. He’s getting over to truck. Well, and he’s got more scope to him than I think his breeding. What suggests you would, he’s got, he’s got a pretty good Strout on me.
I was kind of surprised. I thought he, he looked, maybe it’s just because he’s so athletic looking that he looks short about it. On TV then when I saw him in person. So I have less concerns about him getting the distance now. And he seems to be thriving, tack it looks the happiest to me. He’s got, he’s got the longest drought of anybody in the race and, uh, he just seemed to be bouncing, head his ears up the whole time he looked great.
So the most mature looking horse is Baffert other horse, um, game winner. He just looks settled. I mean, he just looks like, you know, all pros done it. A bunch of times. Couple of that made a couple of other ones that made favorable impressions, but, you know, I don’t think they’re good enough for, I was surprised that tax tax is a good looking horse.
I mean, what a great claim that was, uh, it was amazing. They let your horse that wanted Sunland. He wasn’t bad looking at it. Um, cutting humor. Yeah. Cutting humor. Cutting humor. Yep. Uh, so maybe underneath horses, but, uh, I’m leaning towards, I, I wouldn’t be surprised if the UITs brothers run one, two and a Derby.
Uh, I mean, I think it probably is going to set up shop in a great spot place based on the draw. And, uh, and I think tackiness is really gonna appreciate the distance by the way, country star has got country stars, got the look of a horse. That’s really gonna appreciate the distance too. Country house you think, uh, has the look of that tree house?
It, yeah. Yeah, yeah. He’ll, he’ll definitely like them out of court. I don’t even know if he’s going to get a trip and I mean, I don’t, I don’t think he’s good enough to win it, but maybe, maybe he could suck up for third or something like that with the right kind of road before we let you out of here. And I certainly don’t want you to give everything away.
You’re playing in this contest this weekend, but you do mention there were a number for you who just on body looked like they weren’t going to be able to get the distance with, is there one you’re comfortable in that category of volunteering? Yeah, absolutely. So spin off the one that ran second in Louisiana Derby and the, and the Louisiana Derby winner, who, I mean, I hate to say this because I’m very good friends with Kevin’s assistant.
And, uh, I do, you know, it won’t bother me if they beat me, but he just, he, he looks like his sire, just a shorter bodied horse. What’s his name by my standards. They just, they, they just look like they’re gonna struggle the last date. And you’ll have to settle an argument between me and JK. We’ve been on opposite sides of code of honor with me being pro and him being con they understand he’s an interesting looking physical type.
Where do you land with code of honor? After watching him train, you know, he’s like the only horse. I didn’t see. I missed him. I don’t know how, but I know, but I’ll listen. I know I will be using them cause it’s going to rain Saturday. I’ll be using them and tries and supers. It’s gonna rain. And I liked his work at Keelan and the slop.
He moves up to me on the slop. Well, that’s great. I’ll definitely throw out my underneath. I’m not going to let, I mean, yeah. Shuggie is not going to beat me out of a trier. A super, I don’t think he can run one too, but he can definitely feel that those out. Okay. Do you have one for Frank before we let him get out of here?
My favorite question to ask people with great, uh, horse flesh opinions, the Derby stuff is all great info. Uh, give me some, uh, some undercards some Oaks, gimme, gimme, gimme somebody else. That you were fortunate enough to see when you were hanging out back there that got you kind of excited. Oh, okay. I got to see Mr.
Money at the Calhoun barn and he looks like money and, and, uh, I think he’s going to get a good setup in that day mile. I think he’s a very live long shot in that race. I think he’ll be somewhere today, but eight to one. And I’ll tell you this too. This is a little home cooking, but it’s Stedham is making, uh, equipment and jockey change on synchrony.
He didn’t make that decision lightly. And I think that horse has a look of a horse that could upset in the, uh, in the turf race. Great stuff. Frank, thank you so much. You are a legend, an absolute legend. Thank you so much. And we will be bothering you again soon. You can bet you can see out there front later.
All right, Joe, I’ll see you Friday. All right. All right. Bye. And now we’d like to bring in, man. We just talked about a minute ago with Frank McGaughey clocker, John Nichols, John, how are you today? I’m doing better crank with doing yesterday. You got that story. We did. He told us about getting snapped out of the pick four at the urgent care, but you know, he did have that cold bucket of beer with him, so it wasn’t all was not lost in and he gets another good story to tell.
Yeah. A scratch on dinner. That’s mine. When he told me the story, I just put my head through J K. I know you’ve got a couple of questions for John. We’ll let you start this one off. Yeah. I mean, obviously I’m interested in who John likes and these races, but more importantly, John, what people don’t know that you’re famous for is you’re one of the greatest meme makers of all time.
I wanted to find out what means you you’ve put out there in the airwaves this week. What things you’re. You’re uh, you’re primed and ready for it. I need some means I gotta get you to tweet something. We gotta, we gotta get those going it’s Derby week. Yeah. I’m thinking about one about JK with the rain coming in, everything weren’t a pair of rubber boots up to his knees with a romper on I’m not sure, really sure.
What, uh, Not really sure where I’m gonna find to make this with yet, but I’ve got some ideas here. It could be, it could be a classic though with the rain coming in, everything JK and is wrong. It’s Derby romper. We’re rooting for you on that one. Anything else? Uh, there’s one floating around out there. I met a Gargan, uh, Danny Gargan a few years ago, I was at Saratoga and he really didn’t want to speak to me.
It involved him and many me, his head on many me body. And, uh, he really got a little mad about that one. You do have a real life connection to him, Danny and I grew up together. He tends to tell people he was my babysitter. When I was a kid, I wouldn’t have made it this far. He was probably three or four years older and we kind of grew up with, get around the track, my dad and his mom, and a stepdad.
Really good friends. Speaking of Danny Gargan. Uh, you know, I guess it’s a good transition into some real serious conversations about the Kentucky Derby. What do you think about his horses chance tax? Will you be rooting for him obviously? Uh, you had to kind of send them out, wait for Danny there. And, uh, I think the horse mindset, a good trip.
You sign it impressed me the way he’s trained lately. Just out, it looked like a good Galpin. Another morning. Uh, work is just, okay. Then I fall on TV from the SBTV, but the worst Galt’s like a good worst. Danny’s swearing. He’s going to be on the rail. Uh, the whole way. So we’ll say when you’re looking over the race in general, John, of all the horses you’ve seen this week, is there a standout or two?
I mean, looking through social media, it feels like a year where you got a lot more horses training. Well then training poorly, where’s your eye been drawn? Um, kind of going over everything and getting out, so hung up on Omaha beach. So now I’m just processing everything over again. So, uh, Of course, I talked to you last week.
I talked about how good by my standards. I thought it was training. Uh, I think he’s doing very well, uh, we’re rules. He’s going better than I thought he did at King Linda. When I saw him up there, I’m just not crazy about the one whole, of course I was single. I had to send them, but, uh, I really liked the way I’m probable look this morning.
Uh, he looks like he’s a kind of horse. I can handle the mud. You got city zip at 18. He met Merez mud on muddy confirmation wise. He’s got the. Both short pasterns and look like you’ve got smaller foot on them and it looks like they’ll kind of work the handle, the slob. So. I’m probably gonna end up on keen and probable first and second tipped your hand to this answer.
And we were just talking about it with Frank McGaughey as well. My hesitation about him all along, just looking at some pace, figure things. And of course, city zip on the top was the extra distance for him. When we heard from Frank earlier, it sounded like physically he more resembles the damn side, the APN decide than the city zip side.
Do you have any concerns about him and the distance? Now you all get to work more than the bottle, looking at cities, zip going a mile and a quarter. But I think he’ll get plenty of stamina from the AP Andy mayor. I believe in AP, Andy probably would’ve won the Derby that year. If he had got hurt, turned out to be the best of that generation that year.
I thought about him yesterday with the Omaha beach scratches and that sort of what happened with AP Andy. Wasn’t it right before the Derby. And then obviously AP Andy went on to be AP and D it gave me hope yet for Omaha beach. Yeah, I think it was, he might have had a quarter crack or a foot abscess.
Can’t remember what it was. Yeah. That sounds right. Good issue. That’s one thing I’ve heard people talk about it, Andy and the SOPs stallion, he kind of passed that on some feed issues with some of the courses. Oh, that’s interesting. Do you have any concerns about Omaha beach going forward? Any insight into what was going on there?
There’s a lot of rumors flying around as they said in trapped ethical audits. Of course, after the fact that came out yesterday, I had a couple of people telling me they could hear them. When you Galvin out the other day on the backside, they were backed by the three quarter pole could hear and making a little bit of noise, but couldn’t really hear much coming by.
When you went out and made the water, a lot of horses, get it done. You just don’t hear anything about it, man. It’s just one of the things they give them three weeks off from training. Once he has a surgery and most of them come back. Okay. As long as there’s no paralysis in the throat. What is one thing you always worry about?
He’s clearly in the right hands to get a good care and hopefully we’ll see him to his best effect later in the season. Do I want them to? My favorite conversations we’ve had from time to time is, is, is, uh, obviously you’ve got a great eye for who’s doing good, but you also got a great eye for who’s doing bad and, and, uh, not necessarily bad, but horses that you, uh, you, you feel like you don’t really need to include in all your gimmicks and plays or who are some of those horses that you think will run on on Saturday and the Derby.
Well something. Why do you think it might go? I don’t really care for the way they’re looking, right? Yes. Yeah. I’m really great. Magician was really laddered up and is a Gallup yesterday morning. Didn’t care for that. Um, maximum security in the pre then had a previous way of moving. But when he runs, he runs fast though.
So man looks like it tastes better. One those horses, they don’t move that well in the morning, but when they come in the afternoon, they’re full speed. They go a lot better, but, uh, So those are the only two that really can really say some about, um, the rumor going around hypo gotta put abscesses possible.
Scratch came out this morning. He didn’t train this morning. It’s Thursday morning. We’re recording this. So that’s possible if he’s there. Uh, other than that, I wasn’t master fencer. Wasn’t really impressed with him at all, or physically not really a fan of roaster as well. I’m just not really sold on them.
Uh, I think he’s going to be over budget and that’s about it. Really. I have to ask you about one that Frank, didn’t see, that’s been a subject of debate for weeks on the podcast, John, between me and J K code of honor. Are you for or against if it’s sloppy? I think he moves away up in the slop. He broke his maiden on a wet, fast track and a Saratoga first Abbott confirmation wise.
He looks like kind of horsetail enjoy the slop or a mud. Uh, he worked in the slop and Keelan and April 20th and I left my comment was loved flop. So, uh, I think he moved way up in an off-track. We started the show today with our own personal degenerate weatherman, John, and it sure sounds like it’s going to be slopped, so we’ll keep, we’ll keep an eye out for that, but we appreciate you weighing in on code of honor and all these runners JK, we want to ask the same question you asked Frank about, uh, other races.
Uh, yeah, obviously, John, uh, love your opinion of, of any horses that you might like, kind of in the underneath and the undercards on, on a Saturday and Friday, and then also, um, wanted to get your thoughts on Bella. Feena I’ve heard a lot of people talk about how she doesn’t have the prettiest way of going.
I know you saw her last year, uh, at breeders’ cup when she was at Churchill downs. I want her to see what your opinion was on her. And if you have any horses that you’re interested in underneath. Uh, yeah, I really don’t care the way she goes or anything, but they say she always goes like that in California, from what I’ve seen an ex VTV her Galt’s out there.
She’s not the smoothest way I go, but I’m told against on that price, uh, she just hadn’t faced really that much in California. I was saying it hadn’t placed any adversity with the gets everything your own way and shorter pills. And, um, I’m going to be against her at that price in there. And as for some of the races on the undercard either day, but especially Derby day, anything that’s catching your eye, where you’re willing to give away here.
I’m actually just starting on Derby day right now, a little behind, uh, let me see our Friday, uh, in the fourth race, the split, the WIC it’s really worked well the other day, I thought in a move up on the grass, but you have Honda. I have an arch from there this first. I don’t know if he’s good enough to win there.
But I think you can move up on the grass and the big price and fill us some exotic scent, race, eight belts, uh, breakevens trained forwardly, uh, mother mothers worked okay at Churchill was on the dead rail that day at Keelan where you didn’t want to be in a swamp that day actually drawn outside. I think those are the two horses you kind of key on there.
And queen of beans is okay. Smith’s been looking okay in the mornings here to Galvin. So the six, six race. Okay. Wayne catalog was swears. He’s going to be Chad Brown with winter sunsets. After her last few works, he’s texted me for a fraction, nothing in back of me who says, bring on Chad Brown. We’ll get a, quite some silly, like, okay, fine.
That’s all I had to say, but, uh, that’s an interesting racer. She went there. My blog JK is a Derby contest, so it sure would. I think that could be a colon three myself. Uh, seventh grade that’s Mackenzie’s work. The other day was really good. Gulped out strong. Tom’s the attest work that, um, this past week it was really good.
Uh, silver doses. Don’t try and ride along. That’s a tough race right there. I think McKenzie is the horse to beat, of course, but I think there’s three or four of them in there because actually fill out the try and exactly, it’s not really crazy about anything. And the Florida Lee think that’s a pretty tough rice on the ninth race.
I’ve been impressed by American tattoos works from, uh, on beach towns on SBTV. And the Oaks, I’m a thing. When a champagne, anyone everything’s going to be keyed on her, going into the Derby. Nice. I’ll be playing out with very doubles with five or six horses, a little bigger within probable and code of honor.
Then I’ll probably end up using tax a little, uh, who else in their attacks? Uh, by my standards, cutting numerous. One of my bombs of the day in the rice. I think it gets like the way the horse is trained. And I think the Cory on him he’ll end up finding the inside sometime wherever you probably want to be able to floppy.
Uh, I think he could be like 40 or 50 to one shot. Everybody might be shaking their head if he runs third or fourth in their super truck. Great stuff. John, I want to ask about one more specific course. We’ve had a little bit of back and forth about what do you think of the chances of floor Della Mar. And would you be opposed if the track does in fact come up with her works were in California.
Washington was never really impressed me a whole lot. She’s kind of a big school size too, and I’m not sure how much. So care for an track. I mean, her worst race she had was on and off track in California. I think jaywalk training better than she wasn’t keen when I saw her up there for that last race and really didn’t care for work at Keelan before the Ashland, she just wasn’t really happy.
It looked like her coat looks better. Now she’s baffled out a little more, uh, carrying a little better flesh. She’s not a big Philly. Uh, she’s the one that could really like the much one for one in it. Uh, she broke her mate or when a second store burnt for maintenance parts, uh, seven in the mud. So she’s the one that can move up in an off track.
Excellent stuff, John, we’re going to let you get some rest. We know you’ve been going crazy, getting so much work done. How many horses do you think you clocked this week? Ooh, haven’t been too busy the last week. Five to 600 since last Friday, I guess sounds like a pretty busy week to me, John. Thank you for the time today.
And we will catch up with you very soon. All right. Now we’re going to move on to the final portion of today’s show. We’re going to talk a little bit about this Belmont pick five, but first Jay, I want to talk to you about what we just heard from Frank McGaughey and clocker John Nichols. I think there’s a case to be made that I should.
Dabby wholly convinced in your horse. Improbable and that you should be wholly convinced in my horse code of honor. What say you. Uh, you know, I’m too stubborn for that.
You just heard for people whose opinion you respect talk about this horse, and yet you’re still not on board PTO, you know, I’m entirely too stubborn for that. And of course in the four people, I didn’t even include myself. So there you go. All right. Uh, any other big takeaways for you? I mean, there was some pretty interesting information there and an anti opinion on Roadster.
That’s the kind of thing. Somebody might be able to make some money off of. Well, there’s a couple of things to your, to your earlier point. You know, code of honor is the type that can be a third or fourth type for me underneath. Um, and he’s also a horse that I can consider using. Um, and second and exact as with, with, uh, with improbable.
I won’t ever move him up to win. Um, I just don’t like the horse based off of a lot of things we’ve talked about in previous shows, um, the things that stick out to me are, I love nothing more than when people that I respect when it comes to their opinion on horse flesh. And handicapping confirm an idea that I already had.
Roadster was a horse that I wanted to kind of push back and fade a little bit loved hearing that, uh, from, from JTC, John, the clocker, um, loved hearing Frank’s opinion about spinoff and by my standards, horses that I will still consider in use, but horses that I, I, I, I don’t need to worry as much about.
Beating, uh, my top picket and probable, um, they’ll definitely be underneath users for me. I still think the Louisiana Derby was extremely fast. Look talking to guys like John and Frank were remind me of conversations. I had early in my horseplaying career that this is a game that there’s angles out there that you can be successful at and sharp guys like that.
Pointing them out. It gives me a lot of confidence going into Saturday, call this the Derby final answers pod. And that ties in nicely to this promotion that NYRA bets have going into this weekend. I won’t read the promo code here. You’re going to hear that before and after the show, but the promo itself, JK, you can make a twenty-five dollar win bet.
And if the horse runs second or third, you get that money back. So let’s each pick ours. I think everybody knows by now. But again, this is final answer time. If you have any regrets. If you have any second thoughts, you can change it. Your final answer, who would you make that? $25 free bet via Nairobi breaths with.
Uh, I bet it on improbable. And then when I went out to run it back on the, uh, on the late pick five on Sunday at Belmont bam, my final answer, I’m going to bet that 25 from NYRA bats and funny enough, it was almost faded. I had never signed up for my own NYRA Betts account until now I’m actually going to do so later today, I’m going to use that promo code money.
25. And I’m going to bet that on Tacitus to be eligible for that promotion. And with that, let’s get in very quickly JK to this late pick five on Saturday with all the time between races, it really is something HorsePlayers should be paying attention to obviously with the Derby, as we said, taking up all the oxygen, we just don’t need to spend that much time on it, but let’s go ahead.
It starts off with this maiden race. Race eight. I thought stepped to the bank, had a chance to lead them on a Merry chase from there, drawn down inside with good early speed. How do you see it? Well, first of all, I want to give everybody a cheat code here. The late pick five at Belmont on Saturday starts in between race nine and 10 at Churchill right after the American turf.
And right before the Pat day mile. So you can jump over there real quick and get that bed in. Um, this is a tough race for me, and I’m going to spread a little bit because I’ve got some, some stronger opinions later. Um, that’s, it’s kind of a hunch play here with all these money names and here’s step to the bank.
Uh, financial stability invest Papa. Jim, I don’t know if you have an uncle Jim who asked the money, maybe that can, that can be applied there. Uh, those are all horses that caught my attention that, you know, some of these are cutting back. They’re going to be going six Papa Jim, and invest both ran in a mile last time, but had a nice figures at that six for a long call.
I think that those are obviously live financial stability for Chad Brown. Uh, and I’m actually looking at older PPS that don’t even have, have the owner name. And here, but I guarantee financial stability is clear, but stables chat always has a good horses running for them and wants the debut and win good races on big days.
And then step to the bank. The horse you mentioned has some nice six for a long pace figures. Those are the ones I’m going to use. The rest that I’ve already run. Didn’t really impress me. Maybe a little deputy flag. Like I said, I’ve got two singles later in the car, so I can spread in this first leg. Race nine for me, I was going to take a shot at a speed play again this time.
Oh, my Papa was the horse. I was going to take a long look at this. A discreet cat Colt seemed to me to have a chance to just have a real nice headstart in the seven for a long term sprint. What do you think. We’ve talked about on our previous edition of, of denier Bentley, pick five show that, um, the seven furlongs on the turf or, or types of races that I think horses with.
Great late pace figures do well in often in these races though. Um, it looks as if something might be loose on the lead and, Oh my Papa, your horse that you talked about looks like he might be that horse. Normally I would try to get away from that, but here’s one thing that we don’t know about, Oh my Papa.
We don’t know how he’s going to handle the turf and maybe he will finish with some late pace. Tom Morley has done a great job with turf horses. So, Oh, my Papa is one that I’ll use. Uh, but I’m also gonna use nuts and bolts who has a nice, late figure, um, has run at seven for a long before and is run well.
He’s ran, you know, he’s ran a, hit the board a few times here at Belmont on this trip. And then also mango M is another one with some late pace figures. He’ll be cutting back from the, from the mile and mile of 16th races. Uh, but does, uh, has, has hit the exact day. Uh, in a six for a long race. So obviously the sprinting won’t be an issue for him.
Those are the three that I’m going to use in this spot to try to get loose. I think we’re going to Dodge the weather on Saturday. So the MTOs, as of right now, aren’t gonna, aren’t going to be, uh, something we need to worry about. Speaking of. The weather Belmont, great place to be potentially on Saturday. A couple of graded stakes, including the Fort Marcy, which we’ll get into in a second and also the Westchester.
But if you’re not going to get out to Belmont itself, you should definitely come to my Derby party at Treadwell park West on 42nd street. You’ll be able to sign up for a NYRA bets account on the spot, as it turns out through the NYRA app, apparently it can be funded within minutes. You can get bedding there.
We’re also going to have some raffles, like sorta think Superbowl square style with money going to charity. That’s going to be a lot of fun food and drink specials, music, basically all the good stuff. Want to encourage folks to come and see me there. And of course, if you’re a listener, find me, I’ll be, I think I’m going to be suited up.
I’m going to be dressed nicely. I’m about to go get a new hat for my friends at Goran brothers, J K, I’m going to be styling it out. Come say hello at Treadwell park on Saturday. If you can’t get to Belmont. Or can’t get down to the Derby itself like J K race 10 is the Fort Marcy grade three on the turf.
Who’s your pick? Jonathan I’m ice cold here to Robert Bruce. Robert Bruce was eight to five in this race last year. Uh, Robert Bruce, uh, won the Arlington million. Robert Bruce was even money in a grade one at Belmont to Joe, a hearse turf, classic going a mile and a half. And he also, if you check out SBTV one of my favorite things to do is watch these workout reports check out Robert Bruce’s work.
I believe it was two back and he worked with a horse. Who’s going to be favored Derby day. At Churchill downs and a million dollar race. And that’s a Brixton or he’s also a horse at one a what? Five, 6 million the race at, uh, at Gulf stream earlier in the year. Take a look at that work at Robert Bruce, and you’ll understand why I singled out.
I thought he was going much better than bricks and mortar there. I think he’s sitting on a big race, gets Jose Lezcano with Iran being out of town. I think he’ll be tough here. You’ve made my job so easy JK cause I see the obvious attributes in Robert, Bruce. But now that I know that you’re singled and knowing your history on Derby day, the last two years interfaces, where there were sons of the brood mayor, unbridled empire.
I’m now going to single two and I’m going to single maraud maraud who himself knocked us out of some stuff, uh, was that last year or two years ago. And then of course, our CLO who, uh, who knocked us out of everything on a day, both sons have unbridled empire very, very easy. Now it’s maraud for me. How can you buck that horse?
Don’t you have to have a little bit going through Mirada after what this family has done to us. I’m trying to break the curse. There’s a lot of women in this world. A lot of women in this world that have led me down. A lot of women that have made me angry, none, none, none more so than the empire maker, Philly unbridled empire, who was the producer of Mirage, the producer of art Lowe.
She owes me some money. Oh my God. Come on. You’re you’re much too much of a sharp player to ever say that a horse owes you, muddy horses owe us nothing. My friend. No, this was not a race horse. I just want the mom to pay for what the kids had done to me. That’s easy. And we see that all the time. If a kid breaks your window at your house, when you talk to the mom and see if you can’t get reimbursed, this, uh, this therapy session folks has been brought to you by our friends at NYRA bats.
There you have it. Some want to break the wheel. J K wants to break the curse. However you spin it. Let’s move on to the Westchester. We’re talking about a grade three on the dirt and the horse who caught my eye here. JK was realm who I was thinking. I had a chance to run a lot better. I feel like taken out of the game last time, trying to close into blue fractions to back.
I think we might see a little bit better. In what’s really the second start off the layoff here for realm. Uh, what do you think. Can’t talk you off that one. Um, but I’m going to try my hardest to, I, I love Prince of lucky on the outside. Uh, the figure was a little bit slower last time, but keep in mind, he was 20 cents on the dollar is one to five that day he was running a, like a four or five horse field.
I mean, he had no excuse. So it was written kind of weird. It was a slow pace. He sat on the lead. It drew away. Take a step back to the race prior to that. Uh, when he ran in the house, hope that’s the race that makes me want to single him here. I think he’s a very, very talented horse. No introduction needed for Todd Pletcher.
He gets Joe Bravo with Johnny V out of town. I think Prince lucky is easy. I’m going to go back to back singles in the middle of this pick five. Well, I wasn’t necessarily saying single, so I’ll definitely use yours. Let’s move on to the 12th race. I know you had a point you wanted to make about jockeys and spreading in here, but since you’re spreading and I’m going narrow, or at least I have a stronger top opinion, I’ll go first and I’m going to go first with first forever.
For Linda Rice. I just thought this horse looked like the best of the speed. And I thought she being outside the other speed, that could be a tactical advantage. Love with these cheaper horses to just sort of handicap the race to the pace call and let the chips fall where they may. But I’m really interested to hear your points here about not only this race, but a general point about these big days when a lot of the top riders are out of town.
Right. And this is, this is gonna, this is comment is not an offense comment. I think it’s just a lot of people will, will agree. There’s like a level jockeys, B-level jockeys and C-level jockeys. And I don’t mean it as their talent, but just how they’re perceived by their trainers and by connections. Uh, how many times they’re riding a day, how many purses they’re winning, how many wins?
They’re getting their win percentage. It’s all, you know, it’s all relative, but at the same time, you know, you gotta start somewhere. The guys are all out of town, iRead, Jose, Javier, Johnny they’re out of town. The be guys they’re still here. You know, you’re going to get an Eric. Can’t sell a Ray. Lou Gutierrez is a young guy.
He’s sliding into that. B Jose Loscano, Kendrick Carmouche, uh, Adam to schizo who a lot of people from New York might not be familiar with has done some really good things at fairgrounds. And in Kentucky, Dylan Davis, Joe Bravo. Um, and then there’s the C guys, the lower level guys that are just getting started in their careers.
I think the gap between a and B is not that significant. I do think the gap between B and C is significant, and I have a bunch of friends that are jockeys agents, and I can imagine how these phone calls took place. Knowing all the big guys were out. I’m going to follow all of the B riders that I named and use those horses.
Because this is a very tough race to figure out what these maiden horses and horses are dropping and, and horses aren’t bent and they’re running. Well, I think a little big risk with Eric can’t sell is what I’d want to use. Charming Kara. For Ray, Lou Gutierrez first forever with Jose Lascano. Uh, I mentioned Kendrick Carmouche.
Who’s one of my favorite riders who gets horses into races, especially these young horses, Ms. Ross, uh, Adam, the schizo. There’s a bunch of horses in here. I would use as many as you absolutely could. And that’s what I’ll be doing, uh, with my two singles leading. Do you mind if I just troll you horribly, absolutely.
Setting you up to fail here for a second. Yeah, cause I’m I’m. I have a feeling that I’m feeling good today. Uh, I have a feeling that I’m going to, I’m going to ruin your joke and get it right. The name of Adam Mount in the pay leg of the NYRA bets late pick five on Saturday, uh, thought about, uh, thought about trying to Google it really fast, but I didn’t have time.
I’m going to go with the silent sea and go with it. Uh, Holland hall, Holman deli, Chumley, Chumley, my friend. And I only know that I’ll be honest with you. I only know that because when I was on sky sports racing, the other night I was sitting with, uh, I think it was my friend Kiran O’Sullivan who pointed that out to me.
Or I’m not sure if it was cured. I work with so many great presenters over there. One of the other presenters was like, Oh, I’ll be interesting if the color gets this right. And of course, Johnny, I absolutely nailed it. But anyway, I just was being cheeky there. And I think we should wrap man. People have their, they’ve got their own handicapping to do.
They’ve got a lot of great content to read, check it out in the money podcast.com. I realized I wanted to give out Marshall street Twitter handle because he’s going to be posting weather updates over the course of the next few days. So it should be a great follow J K, do you have that handy? I believe I do.
I think it’s, uh, I actually ended up searching something else, but I’m going to have it in about 12 seconds. It’s a something, if you don’t listen to the show very often that I do. I just talk and say words that don’t matter while I’m looking up, things that I need to answer. It is at grade one or at G one handicapping at G one handicapping.
And, uh, Marshall has a, he’s gonna be doing a lot of weather updates. He is a. Weatherman by trade. He’s got his master’s degree in whether he can tell you which way forest fires are going. So he can definitely tell you which way the rain is coming on Derby day. Love it. And with that, I’m going to thank you, JK.
We’re going to thank Marshall Sterling. We’re going to thank Frank McGaughey. We’re going to thank clocker John Nichols, but most of all, we’re going to thank all of you for listening and checking out all of the great Derby content in the feed and supporting us by signing up for NYRA bets. Using the promo codes you can hear at the beginning and end of the show.
This show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Courtney I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. May you win all your Oaks and Derby photos.
this year’s Kentucky Derby is wide open and there’s lots of money to be made. One place you must bet. The Derby is with NYRA bets. NYRA Betts has giving new players a free $25 Derby win bet. If your horse gets second or third, you get your cash back. Don’t miss this limited free $25 bet offer. From NYRA bets.
Sign up today with the promo code money twenty5@NYRAbets.com and get your free $25 Derby bet today. If you want to have some help signing up for your NYRA robots’ account and you can’t get to the track. Come see me, Peter Thomas for Nitel. Hosting this Derby party at Treadwell park West on 42nd street in Manhattan.
On Saturday, we started about two o’clock come on by. It’s sponsored by NYRA bets and NYRA bets.com Marshall, while we have you, I’m just curious if you have any stories for us about how you’ve used your meteorology skills. I used the wrong word there. I’ll edit that. How you’ve used your media rod. Oh my gosh.
I can’t say the word.