Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/15/25 – By Eric Solomon

It’s Whitmore Day at Oaklawn where the Grade 3 featured sprint race is named after the stalwart, Breeders’ Cup winning sprinter who won several races here over the years. First post is set for 12:25 (CT) and with the extra race on the card, Oaklawn is offering an additional Pick-5 starting in the 5th race and an additional Pick-4 starting in Race 6. 

Note: I’m not sure what happened when I originally posted this around midnight, but I wasn’t seeing this on the page this afternoon. It should be fixed now.

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Three year olds will start the day sprinting six furlongs in a $100K maiden claiming event. The morning line favorite, Bye Bye Miles (#8) is coming off a strong effort when facing restricted maiden claimers here in February. That was by far the best effort from this Authentic colt in his four race career so far. He earned an 82 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and that is the kind of number that would make him competitive in the maiden special weight races here at Oaklawn. He cost his connections $310K, so the fact that he is still entered for a tag, albeit a larger one, tells me there’s not a ton of confidence from the barn that he can back that figure up. We saw a figure regression from Max Got Excited (#6) last out after running a big Beyer two starts back. However, he faced Cornucopian, a Bob Baffert runner that was absolutely loaded in that race. He finished almost 13 lengths behind that one that day. He cost $72K, so the drop in class feels more reasonable today. This is considerable class relief from his last two races, so I see him as the one to beat in this spot today. The kids will in attendance will get a kick out of hearing the name Skibidi Rizz (#5) being called over the PA system by Matt Dinerman in this race. He’s a Nyquist gelding who is making his career debut for Ron Moquett today. This barn has been sharp all meet long, so just about anything they’re sending out right now should be respected. He had a sharp workout at the end of February, stopping the clock in 47:4. His first foal to make it to the track from the Into Mischief mare, Sinwaan. She was third on debut behind Royal Charlotte and she broke her maiden in her second career start. Horses sired by Nyquist are winning 19% of the time when debuting in dirt sprint races over the last five years. He feels like a viable alternative to the top pick in this race. 

Race 2: 

We’ll go from a deep pockets maiden claiming race to the bottom maiden claiming level, with $12,500 maiden claimers sprinting six furlongs here. Eight of the 12 runners in the body of the field are entered with a $20K claiming tag, telling you that they were bred in Arkansas. The story of this race is the two professional maidens that were given respect by the morning line oddsmaker, installing them at 8-5 and 9-5 on the morning line. Within the body of the field there’s not a ton of of better alternatives to Lord Diamond (#7) and Museum Quality (#5), however, both runners have taken the L at this level in the past, and despite finishing second a combined nine times, they also are both 0-10 to start their careers. Cat Storm (#14) needing two defections to compete doesn’t help anything either. He’d be the pick if he were to draw in. He ran well when making his first start in 18 months a few weeks ago. He was gobbling up ground over a sloppy course that day. He makes sense as a horse that could improve in his second try after a lengthy break. Coal Stone (#4) would be the top pick if that one defects. He was 6th in the same race that Cat Storm is exiting on 2/15. He was making his first start in 10 months that day, so he’s another candidate to move forward after that race. Moquett and Bejarano continue to win races together. The two favorites will be B line plays because there aren’t many better alternatives, at least on paper at this point. I’m not sure there’s many in this field that can match their figures. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 starter allowance race, open to runners that have started at least once for a $12,500 claiming tag since the start of 2024 and have not won a race in a $12,500 claiming race or higher since the start of the meet. Oaklawn tends to card races like this the second half of their meet in order to give as many of the horses based here a fighting chance to earn a trip to the Winner’s Circle. I’m not sure that there is a better alternative to the favorite, Awesome Annmarie (#3) in this spot. She’s been close at this level in her last two starts. She was a winner with open $20K claimers at Keeneland in this fall and she’s finished in the money in her last four tries. She’s consistently running Beyer figures in the mid-70’s and I’m not sure anyone is going to be able to beat that number in this race. Summer Shoes (#9) makes the most sense as the back up play in this race. She’s a horse that could be popping on the scene late here. Both Tell Me When (#4) and Atlantic Strike (#8) have some early zip, so they have the potential to be dueling through the first half mile. Awesome Annmarie should be glued to their flanks while tracking in behind that pair. This seven year old mare is not the same horse that she used to be, but she’s still capable of running well when things go her way. 

Race 4:

The first two turn race of the afternoon is a $10K N3L claiming race going one mile. Patch O’Brien (#9) is the play for me in this race, dropping in class for Tammy Hornsby. He cleared the N2L condition in the slop three starts ago on a day where he was claimed by this barn. He tried twice against better competition and ran credible races in those spots. I think the drop in class will help his cause and I see him trending in the right direction while coming into this race. Mo Rum (#4) is another live longshot in this race. Both of his career wins came in one turn races, so he does need to prove that he can be as effective when going two turns. He was a winner two back when clearing the N2L condition and he wasn’t terrible in any of his dirt route races, all of which came when facing better competition. After faltering in a tough beaten $20K claiming race last weekend, Lindsay Schultz wheels him back quickly. While I’m not in love with this move from a barn that doesn’t do this often, I do think I can be forgiving at 15-1 (ML) or higher. Feathers Road (#5) is the morning line favorite and one that will be on my tickets.He’s been knocking on the door with similar company in his last two starts. He’ll likely be setting the tempo in this spot and that wasn’t a terrible place to be on yesterday’s card. He was caught late in both starts and now he runs back off the Cipriano Contreras claim. He figures to be right there at the end once again. 

Race 5: 

Open $10K claimers will go one mile in the race that ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers and kicks off the Mid-card Pick-5. This feels like a spot where we’ll find out if Logical Myth (#12) has anything left in the tank. Since going to the sidelines after a strong third place finish against a stakes quality allowance field last February, he has put together a miserable four race stretch, suggesting that his best days are in the rear view mirror. He faltered with restricted claimers when running for $30K and $40K tags in his first two starts at this meet. However, he had lousy trips both times. In fairness, some of those wounds were self-inflicted, but he is dropping to a level where he might still fit. The outside post is no picnic, but if he’s sitting there at 6-1 (ML) or higher, I’d be willing to take the chance he can still compete, albeit at a lesser level of competition. Allo Enry (#3) moves up in class after getting up in time in a wild finish with beaten $8K claimers here 14 days ago. Despite winning, I think that race was better than it looks on paper. He’s shown he can be effective at this two turn distance, and horses in these inside positions have been getting some comfortable trips lately. He won four of his last eight starts and finished second twice in that span. I think he might be undervalued here. Tiwanaku (#2) had a relatively easy time beating a smaller field at a similar class level last time out. He was a gate to wire winner that day, but he’s capable of winning races in a variety of ways. This will be his second start for Greg Compton, who has good numbers with runners that won in their previous start. 

Race 6: 

Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in a $75K maiden claiming race. Buzzworthy (#5) is the pick in this race, making her second career start. She debuted in a fast maiden special weight race on the Risen Star undercard at the Fair Grounds. The two fillies that were first and second pretty much dueled all the way around the track that day, finishing well in front of the third place finisher. This Union Rags filly was sent off at 62-1 that day, but she did fare better than her more heralded stablemate that also debuted in that race. Asmussen doesn’t have great numbers with firsters, but his horses do typically improve in their second starts. He has won 23% of the time with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company over the last 15 months. I think she’s a better fit with this group. I’ll back up with Belvedere Club (#3), making her third career start today. She paired her first two Beyer Figures, so there’s reason to believe that she could move forward in this spot. While she is moving up in class on paper, I think the difference between the $50K maiden claiming level and this $75K level is negligible. I’m chilly on both of the favorites in this race, so I’m going to go price hunting, especially in the exotics. Melly’s Birkin (#6) is a bit of a crazy longshot in here to consider. Jade Cunningham is 0-16 at this current meet, but she’s had some horses run well. This filly didn’t do much on debut at Ellis when facing maiden allowance types. She dropped in class to the $50K maiden claiming level at Keeneland in October and wasn’t terrible when finishing 4th. She’s been on the sidelines since, preparing for her three year old debut. She’s likely gotten bigger and stronger in the interim and she’s been working well enough. She’s listed at 30-1 on the morning line, but I don’t think the difference from top to bottom is nearly that wide in this field. She’s a sneaky longshot that could add some value to some of the vertical exotics. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-5 will begin with an optional $35K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. This is a pretty strong field for this condition at Oaklawn and the leader in this spot is Where’s My Ring (#5). She won a relatively weak running of the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes back in April which was where she broke her maiden. She tried Grade 1 company in the Kentucky Oaks and the Acorn, but she was no match for Thorpedo Anna in those races. Val Brinkerhoff tried the grass with her at Del Mar and she wasn’t interested. After that efforts, she was sidelined until last month when she came back to run third in N1X allowance company at Santa Anita. That was a six furlong race and two turn racing is where she looked the best last season. Clearly that was a race to set her up for a race like this. The fact that they’re shipping her in to town from Southern California leads me to believe that this filly is sitting on a bigger effort. She got her feet wet last time and looks to be ready to fire with this field. By virtue of never winning two times, she remains eligible for the N1X condition here and I think she’ll take advantage of that opportunity. Majestic Oops (#4) feels like the main danger, coming off a strong runner-up effort in the Trivista Overnight Stakes here last month. She’s an ultra-consistent runner that has finished in the money in 11 of her last 12 tries. She will be forwardly placed and should get the jump on the top pick. She doesn’t win a ton, so there should be hesitation to take too short of a price though. 

Race 8: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $25K N2Y claiming race for four year olds and upward that have not won two races in the last five months. Samurai Prince (#6) feels like the one to beat in this race. He’s a fairly consistent gelding that is dropping in class after two fifth place finishes here. He was strong when he won here three starts ago when making his first start since August. He struggled two back against a good group of starter allowance foes, but he looked sharper last time out in spite of the disappointing result. He’s typically forwardly placed, so he often finds himself in good position. He feels like the one to beat here. Refuah (#8) was 7th in that same open claiming race that Samurai Prince is coming out of last time out. He’ll need to make up about four lengths on his rival to beat him in this spot. He’s the kind of horse that wants to circle wide with a strong late kick, but that wasn’t the best place to be yesterday. He’s going to need a strong pace and he’s going to need to break better than he has been lately. Vale (#5) is a longer priced option to consider as a backup play in this race. The form has been up and down at this meet, but it’s fair to note that all of those races came in starter allowance company. This is the first time he’ll be offered for a claiming tag since winning a $30K N3L claiming race at Prairie Meadows in September. He does have a win over this course so the class relief could be a wake up for him. 

Race 9:

State bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this N1X allowance race which drew an overflow field of 14. I really liked the debut score from Stephanie Starfish (#2) back in January. She was confidently ridden by Tyler Bacon after breaking in the middle of the pace in a full field. She came with a four wide surge and proved to be much the best in that race. She came back to run at this level last month and she had a miserable trip that looks worse on video than it does on paper. She broke near the middle of the pack, but she was forced to steady and was forced to the back of the field, while never looking comfortable. She began to advance on the outside when another runner starter to force her out to the middle of the track. She wound up well over five wide when coming off the turn, but at that point she began to retreat. At 20-1 on the morning line, I’ll wager that she’s closer to the horse that was so smooth on debut. I’ll hope that last race served an educational purpose and that she’s better off for it today. She’s a Dreamer (#5) shipped here from Sam Houston and was an impressive state bred maiden special weight winner last month. She finished in front of Plinko Chip (#9), who came back to break her maiden two weeks later and now joins her in allowance company. The outside post served her well that day, but I thought she ran well on debut from the rail in a large field in Texas. I do think she can progress here. Queen Mallard (#12) has the outside stall after a front-running maiden special weight victory here in December. She looked like a better horse than the filly that showed some promise at the end of the 2024 season. I don’t love that she’s been away for about 10 weeks now, but she still might prove to be too tough to catch. 

Race 10, The Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes:

The feature today is a very good six furlong sprint, which drew a field of nine. Booth (#4) is the morning line favorite after a monstrous victory here in the Commodore Overnight Stakes last month. He decimated his five rivals that day with a strong gate to wire victory. That was the performance we were waiting to see from this horse since his debut win at Keeneland. Now that we saw that, we’re going to have to believe that he can do it again. This is a deeper field and he was dull in his three starts in stakes company prior to that score last time out. I think that 105 Beyer Speed Figure staring handicappers in the face is going to drop his figure below the 3-1 morning line. I’m not sold on him. Happy Is a Choice (#2) is my pick here. He’s been right there in both starts at this meet. Tejano Twist (#1) nailed him on the wire last out in the King Cotton, but it’s fair to point out that he (Tejano Twist) has the services of Flavien Prat that day and he only has to pass three rivals to win. Tyler Bacon takes over on that runner, who won for the first time in his last 10 starts last time out. Happy Is a Choice on the other hand has five wins in his last eight starts, including a stakes win on this oval. He’s in good form and should be able to get the jump on Tejano Twist. Giant Mischief has a propensity to run strong races. He’s never finished off the board in seven career one turn starts, with four of those races ending in trips to the Winner’s Circle. He often fires best when fresh and could be tough to catch. Closethegame Sugar (#8) had a strong run last summer, winning both the Kelly’s Landing and the Aristides Stakes at Keeneland before finishing second to The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby Stakes. Happy Is a Choice had his number when they last faced each other. However, something was clearly amiss as he’s been sidelined since that race. He might need this start, but if he starts 2025 the same way he was going in the spring and early summer last year, he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with here. 

Race 11:

Open N1X allowance types end the card when going 1 1/16 miles. I’m going to be willing to forgive the effort from Dance Some Mo (#6) last time out. He doesn’t want to be on the lead per se, but he does want to be forwardly placed. He didn’t get the trip his connections were hoping for, which explains the dull effort. He has a good record on this course and his two turn form outside his last race, feels strong. Nullify (#9) is another runner that ran a rather puzzling race time out. His two prior starts were really good, but he came flat in his most recent effort. The pedigree is there and these connections are sharp. On deeper tickets, I’ll give a look to Spoiler (#11), who is going to have to overcome a wide post. He might not have the highest ceiling in this race, but he does feel like the runner with the lowest floor.  He was sharp in Oklahoma not that long ago, so there should be hope for a turnaround. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 74/367 (20.2%, $676.40, $1.84 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 9/41 (22.0%, $79.40, $1.94 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)