Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/29/25 – By Eric Solomon

It’s the biggest racing day of the year in Arkansas, as the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby anchors a tremendous 14 horse that gets under way at 11:20 (CT). Race 13 is the featured race that will likely send a pair of runners to Louisville in hopes of winning the Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan was third in this race last year before stamping his name in the record books last year with his Derby win. Five other stakes races support this card, including the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes, which introduced the country to Thorpedo Anna. 

On a personal note, if you’ll indulge me for a minute, I received a call yesterday morning that my father had passed away. We had literally completed the hospice intake paperwork less than 24 hours prior, so while how fast he went was surprising, the end outcome was not. Like many of us, my father introduced me to this great game at a young age. He had a few 1980’s versions of micro-shares in some horses that ran in lower level races in the Mid-Atlantic, and I’ll never forget some of those days and nights when our horses would almost always seem to end up on the wrong side of a photo finish. Horse racing was what bonded us over the years, so he really got a kick out reading the work that I’ve done over for ITM over the last few years. He loved the big racing days, and while it’s hard right now, not getting the call Saturday afternoon to talk about the Derby in five weeks is going to be harder. While his cognition and physical abilities were starting to fail this past year, we still talked about the Derby. He wasn’t able to bet the race this year, but imagine his surprise when I texted him a screenshot of a 2-3 exacta box that I placed for him. He was born on May 23rd ,so those were his numbers. Seeing the 3-2 put up with Sierra Leone just holding on for second last year gave him a huge thrill, which he talked about for months. That was his last bet, so it feels appropriate that he went out a winner. It was important to me to finish the work I started on this card, but I’ll be off for the next few days. I’ll be back with the start of the Keeneland meet next week. I’ll have more time restrictions this year than in previous years, so my work at Oaklawn over the next month will be very limited. While I don’t think I have a 2-3 linked together anywhere on this card, if you have two extra bucks, roll the dice and play that today somewhere. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Arkansas Derby day kicks off with a $10K starter allowance race open to four year olds and up that have started at least once for a $10K tag or less since the first day of 2024. Like the Arkansas Derby later in the card, this race will be contested at nine furlongs. Cashmeup (#10) starts the day off as a heavy favorite, and for good reason. He broke his maiden in a $10K maiden claiming race at Churchill last April, thus keeping him eligible for this condition. He ran well in spots in Kentucky, but has really come into his own after Norm Casse claimed him for $30K at Churchill in November. He has three excellent efforts on this oval this season, including two wins in starter allowance races. Those races were $12,500 starter allowance races for horses who haven’t won twice in a five month span, in addition to having started for a $12,500 claiming tag or less. While technically this can be a tougher condition, the difference between the fields he faced in those races and the field he’s facing today feels negligible. He powered home when going 9 ½ furlongs two starts ago, so the distance should only help his cause. He remains protected and is making his case to be a contender in the Trail’s End Starter Stakes at the end of the meet. He is the most likely winner in this one. The backup for me would be Mad Adam (#5). He burned me last out when finishing a dull third in a $12,500 claiming race here. He ran well two back in starter allowance company. He makes his first start off the Chris Hartman claim, so I think he should improve off that last effort. 

Race 2: 

Ten three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. Gateskeeper (#10) could be a sneaky longshot on the cutback in distance in this race. He was sharp on debut at this level three starts back, coming within a head of the winner. He stretched out to a mile where he met an above average field for a maiden optional claiming race here two starts ago. He shipped to Tampa to try the Sam F. Davis, which seemed like a big ask from this one and he didn’t run a step in that race, finishing last of 10. He gets Lasix for the first time this afternoon and is getting back to a better distance. Arrieta coming back won’t hurt his chances either. Steven Asmussen is sending out a highly touted first time starter in this race with Vital Mind (#3). He’s the first foal to race from the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, She’s a Julie. The works in New Orleans have been solid and Jose Ortiz taking the mount is a positive sign. He’s fared well when riding for Asmussen here in the past. Asmussen also sends out Faust (#4), who makes a lot of sense in this race. He lost to Speed King and Cornucopian in his two career starts, and both of those runners are contenders in the Arkansas Derby later in the day. He makes his second start off the layoff in this spot and figures to be stronger moving forward. 

Race 3:

Arkanas breds will sprint six furlongs in a state bred maiden allowance here. This race oversubscribed and was split into two divisions with the second coming up in Race 5. Let’s roll the dice with Arkoma (#2) who is likely to be completely overlooked in this race. Allen Milligan does not have good numbers with first time starters of late. However in the 2021-22 meet here, he had a nice stretch of three debut winners over this course in less than a month’s time. Two of those winners were in state bred races. He’s the first foal to run from a mare that broke her maiden in her third career start. She was a game third on debut. The sire, Vekoma, gets 24% winners with debuting runners in dirt sprints. There’s not many Arkansas breds sired by Vekoma that I know of, so that class might compensate for the lower percentage connections. The works are solid, so at 30-1 or better, I’d be willing to get involved. Whitley (#9) was well-backed at the windows on debut here last month. Bejarano has been riding extremely well of late, moving himself into the conversation for leading jockey of the meet. This one was close, but flattened late at a time in the meet when the outer lanes weren’t always the best places to be. While I do think the 2/23 race which was won by Touchdown Arkansas (who came back to clear the state bred N1X condition in his next start), was better, I think this one has a higher upside than some of the others in this field. Tizmarkus (#1) is one of the runners coming out of the Touchdown Arkansas race. He was third that day, but now he draws the rail in this large field. While it’s not an ideal place to start, I do think he is eligible to move up in his third start after pairing his first two Beyer figures. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this optional $35K claiming/N1X allowance race contested at six furlongs. I really like She Called (#12) in this spot. She came back in a tough race at this level when facing the promising filly Nuit Magique. She was all but eliminated from that race at the break as the horse outside of her was bearing in, forcing her to check hard in the first furlong. She spotted the field at least 10 lengths after that. She moved well along the rail to get into 6th, despite being a horse that likes to race near the front end. The outside draw fits her perfectly, and it should minimize the kind of trouble she encountered at the break. The other filly that makes a lot of sense with this group breaks at the opposite end of the starting gate. Helen’s Little Sis (#1) makes her first start since December this afternoon. She struggled in both of her starts on the Tapeta there. However, she has two dirt races and both of them were by far her two best efforts. She broke her maiden a year ago at the Fair Grounds going this distance before going to the sidelines. She’s worked well over this course for Mark Casse, who is looking to get back in the win column after a hot start to this meet. 

Race 5: 

The second division of the state bred maiden special weight sprint features a field of 11. Nicholai (#8) is a half to Bennykayandsuzytoo (who is scheduled to start in the 4th race today). That one was well meant on debut, finishing a close third before winning her next two starts. This one has been working well in the morning, which includes a five furlong bullet work here a few weeks ago. I’m expecting a strong effort at first asking in a race where he could be overshadowed by a Brad Cox first timer. Cox had a debut winner here yesterday to start the weekend and he gives Flavien Prat a chance with Giant Moon (#5) in this race. None of the runners from this mare to make it to the track have been particularly effective. The works are reasonable for a barn that has won with 21% of their first timers since the beginning of 2024. He’s more of  a B line play for me. Of the runners with experience in this race, Four O Nine (#1) is the one that interests me the most. He showed some improvement in his second career start despite encountering some issues in the first few furlongs. He was advancing along the rail before he was forced to steady when running up on some heels. He was relegated to about 8th, but was able to re-rally. Once he tipped out, he came with a strong bid to get into third. When watching that race back, he was probably the best one in that field. However, he’s drawn the rail once again, so with his running style, he might be in for another tough trip. If his odds float up, he’d be more enticing to take a chance on. However, he’s still the second choice and the other runner on the A line for me in this spot. 

Race 6, The $250K Matron Stakes:

The first stakes race drew a compact field of six, but there could be a budding star in the filly and mare sprint division here. Almostgone Rocket (#4) makes her first start since a dominating effort in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Saratoga back in June. This filly was smashing her debut here last April, scoring by over 11 lengths. She was a winner in the slop in allowance company at Churchill in her next start. She’s undefeated, and she’s won her three races by a combined total of 22 lengths. Prat rode both her and Benedetta (#1) in their last starts, but he opts to stay aboard this one, who easily could be eyeing up the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff on Derby Weekend if she comes back strong here. While I world of respect for Haulin Ice (#6), I think if someone is going to beat the heavy favorite in this race, it will be Benedetta. With her rail draw, she’s likely going to stalk the pace. She came up just a bit short in the Carousel in her last start which broke her four race winning streak. Jose Ortiz was in the irons when she won a nice stakes at Mahoning Valley three starts ago. I think she’ll be finishing well and I’ll give her the slight nod to pull off the mild upset. 

Race 7:

Four year olds and up will go six furlongs in this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race. There is a heck of a lot of speed signed on for this race, so assuming this field stays intact, I want to side with a horse that could be finishing well late. Eglise (#11) makes some sense in this race, coming off a 6th place finish at this level last out. Perhaps that effort was a bit of a bounce, but I think the lower figure was a result of a traffic filled trip. He had run in that race, but there was nowhere for him to go. Pusac dove to the inside to try to find a lane and was able to get him within 3 ½ lengths of the winner. His win when clearing the N1X condition here two starts ago was sharp. With the exception of a loss in a one turn mile race to Hall of Fame, a horse that went on to win a Grade 3 race last month and just finished second in the New Orleans Classic Handicap last week, he’s been competitive in every race he’s been in. Favorite Outlaw (#10) has been sidelined for 13 months, but he’s been working well for his return. Chris Hartman has good numbers with runners off the bench and Tyler Bacon continues to ride very well at this meet. He’s the kind of horse that could get first run on the deeper closers, assuming he’s not too keen while coming off the bench. On deeper tickets, Friar Laurence (#9) could also be moving well late. He might have lost a step or two, but he’s still a gutsy competitor as a six year old. He’s been popular at the claim box lately as he’s had a different trainer from start to start in six of his last races. Flavien Prat picking up the mount is definitely a plus. Bohemian Bo (#1) and Disco Ball (#2)are both one way speed horses. Assuming they’re both in this race, I’m looking elsewhere, however, I’m throwing them on the C line because if one defects, I’d definitely upgrade the other a little bit, despite the presence of other speed horses in this field. If one of the two runs, I think that one can outsprint this group early and keep finding late. However, with both runners going, this feels like a speed duel that neither are going to survive. 

Race 8, The Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile:

Saudi Crown (#8) is the headliner in the first of three graded stakes races on this loaded card. He is coming off a 5th place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup. His deal is that he pretty much needs to be on the lead. His problem is that Flavien Prat is riding Banishing (#3), who breaks to his inside, and that one also is likely to want the lead. That should set the table for The Wine Steward (#1) to notch his second stakes score of the meet. After losing some heartbreaking photos, he came out on top in one of them when winning the Fifth Season Stakes here. That race was uncharacteristically strong this year and I thought he ran a bang up race. He is usually comfortable stalking the pace, so I think he can sit a perfect stalking trip and come back a winner once again, giving him his first graded stakes score. Banishing has been really good for Jacobson lately, earning three straight triple digit Beyer Speed Figures. He just yielded late last time in the 14 horse Razorback Stakes. He’s going to have more pressure early from Saudi Crown today. However, he’s found a home on this course and he’s going to be a stubborn foe. Saudi Crown typically wins the races he’s supposed to win. Both I’m McDreamy (#2) and Just Steel (#4) are cross-entered in other stakes races on this card. If either show up here, they could be a part of the pace puzzle, and with both drawing inside of Saudi Crown, that might make his job tougher. If they both defect and opt for their other spot, Saudi Crown  should only have to worry about Banishing early on. Both of those runners are backups for me in this spot. 

Race 9:

The second of three nine furlong races on the card is a maiden special weight for three year olds. The two short prices are Zero Sugar (#3) and Oy Gevald (#4). This duo chased home Cornucopian in a maiden allowance race here last month, with Zero Sugar getting the better of his rival for second. Oy Gevald came back two weeks later to run a strong race in his first try at two turns. I’m not sure that one wants to go this far though and I’m wondering if he’s going to be as effective while making his third start in five weeks. Even though he hasn’t tried it yet, I do prefer the pedigree for Zero Sugar at this distance. Contreras has good numbers with second time starts and horses going from routes to sprints. I think he’ll graduate here. Instead of Oy Gevlad, I’ll try both Sixtyseven Mustang (#1) and Just Classic (#9)as backups in this race. Sixtyseven Mustang has about six lengths to make up on the top pick in this spot. He comes from another barn that excels in getting their runners to stretch out to two turns. The rail position will give Francisco Arrieta some options as well. Just Classic (#9)was third at a huge number when making his third career start here last month. He couldn’t keep pace in the late stages with the top two finishers that day, but he definitely held his own. He won’t be hovering around 80-1 in this race, but he’s playable, especially if his odds float up a bit from his 10-1 morning line figure. 

Race 10, The $145K Eclipse Overnight Stakes:

This stakes race that kicks off the first of two back-to-back Pick-4 wagers is restricted to horses that have not won a stakes race in 2024 or 2025. The morning line favorite for this race is Wendelssohn (#5), who has two wins and two seconds in four starts at this meet. Both second place finishes came in stakes company, losing to Banishing, who is running in the Oaklawn Mile and Booth, who just won the Whitmore Stakes here earlier this month. While you could argue that his two losses came in races where he wasn’t permitted to run with Lasix, which is the case today, the counter argument is the Banishing and Booth are very good racehorses. While there may be a horse that runs an uncharacteristically big race in this spot, predicting who that could be feels like a crapshoot. While I’m hoping that the price doesn’t go too far below his 9-5 morning line, he feels like the one for me in this spot. The backup for me will come from the same barn. Tyler Bacon opts to keep the mount on Wendelssohn, so Hartman has tabbed Luan Machado to ride Attache (#9). He gave this gelding a brilliant ride four starts ago at Churchill when he won a starter allowance race there. This one has struggled a bit at the N2X level after clearing the N1X condition in January. However, he’s had some trouble lines in both of those starts, so the jockey change may position him for a better trip today.

Race 11, The $145K American Pharoah Overnight Stakes:

The second restricted overnight stakes on the card is also for runners that have not won a stakes race in 2024 or 2025. Four year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this contest. While the previous race felt a little light in terms of quality, I think this race came up quite strong. I think Bendoog (#3) figures to get the run of the race in this spot. Both Bishops Bay (#1) and Maycocks Bay (#7) figure to be involved in the early pace, and should he opt to run in this spot, they could be accompanied by I’m McDreamy (#8). While I don’t think there will be a crazy tempo in this race, I do think the pace will be honest enough. Bejarano might have had Bendoog a little too far off the pace when he came up just short in an allowance race a few weeks ago. This is a quick turnaround from Mott, suggesting to me that all systems are go with this lightly raced six year old. He was much sharper in his second race off the layoff when competing at Aqueduct last spring, so I do think we’re going to see one of his better efforts today. Bishops Bay makes a lot of sense, as he’ll likely be holding the rail position in this race. Flavien Prat guided him to an easy win in allowance company two months ago. The runner-up that day, Woodcourt, came back to win in his subsequent start. He’s never finished worse than second in seven career tries, but we haven’t really seen a breakout race from him either. He’s likely going to get the right trip in this spot and he’s just a very solid horse for Brad Cox. He’s been very sharp in the mornings in New Orleans telling me that he’s going to fire his best shot today. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Liberal Arts (#6), who is also campaigned by Brad Cox. I thought the Fifth Season Stakes could have been a coming out party of sorts for him. Prior to that race he had two strong allowance wins and he seemed poised to run a big race. He had some early issues and was left with too much work to do, especially with the shorter stretch of the one mile races here at Oaklawn. I’m not convinced he’s going to get the best set up, but I do think he’ll improve off that race with a better trip. He’s more likely to fill out the bottom parts of the vertical exotics, but if he does move forward off his last race, he could be dangerous. 

Race 12, The Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes:

Three year old fillies are looking to punch their ticket to the Kentucky Oaks, much like Thorpedo Anna did in this race last year. I’m siding with Take Charge Milady (#1) on top after a disastrous trip in the Honeybee. She was roughed up at the break and then she took up on the turn when it looked like she was taking a good amount of dirt to the face. She doesn’t need the lead, but she does like to be involved in the race early on, so I’m willing to absolutely cross out her last effort. Her two previous wins on this course were sharp. She’s been working well and Brian Hernandez takes the assignment. I think she can spring a mild upset. Quietside (#5) broke through in the Honeybee and is back and looking for me in this race. She was solid while stalking the pace in that race. After four straight in the money finishes, she found herself back in the Winner’s Circle last time out. Jose Ortiz may have figured something out, so he makes sense while getting the return call here. Simply Joking (#7) is the B Line play for me in this race. She won the Silverbulletday Stakes in the slop when making her last start at the Fair Grounds. She’s a half to Drum Roll Please, who was a two turn stakes winner at Aqueduct last year. The works are solid, but she’s on a new track after not racing for over two months. She handled two turns on a wet and sealed course, but I do want to see on a fast track at this distance before taking too short of a price. 

Race 13, The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby:

I have horse by horse analysis for this race posted on the ITM Blog and linked below. I’ll share some quick thoughts here, starting with the top pick, Coal Battle (#8). He is undefeated on the dirt and he keeps getting better. While he had favorable trips in his last two starts, they were very different trips, proving that this colt is very adaptable to any circumstance. I think he’ll get another good set up on a track that he’s proven to love. Sandman (#6) has been good in his last two races, but for him to be at his best, he needs to stay in closer contact to the field in the early stages of the race. Perhaps that is why Jose Ortiz is taking over. I think at 3-1, he’s not offering great value. The same could be said for the morning line favorite, Cornucopian (#9). He’s trying to win a Grade 1 race at nine furlongs after debuting at six furlongs. It’s not unheard of as Baffert pulled off this feat with Taiba a few years back in the Santa Anita Derby. I think Speed King (#5) stands to make his life very difficult though. I don’t think Bejarano is going to give up inside position, especially after watching how Speed King struggled while tracing the leaders when four wide in the Rebel. I think there will either be a duel that sinks both or Cornucopian will back off and track. Under those conditions, Speed King could be dangerous. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-1-arkansas-derby-by-eric-solomon/

Race 14:

This marathon card ends with a N1X allowance race for four year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. This contest drew an overflow field of 14, where only 12 will be permitted to race. Gun Party (#1) and Keith Asmussen will be the top pick in this strong race. He was bred to be a champion, sired by Curlin out of the Grade 1 winning mare, Carina Mia. He looked solid in his first three starts before something went amiss in a race at this level at Churchill two starts ago. He was away for about eight months before returning in a one mile race at this level here four weeks ago. He wasn’t very sharp at the gate and then he was stacked up behind horses on the turn. The rail might make for another tough trip, but this blue-blooded colt could be flying under the radar in this stacked field. Gunoe (#7) just missed at this level two starts and he had a tough trip in his last start in January. Paulo Lobo gave him a little extra time between starts, so he might have been nicked up after that race. Blinkers are coming off and the price should be a little more fair on a horse that has been hammered at the windows in recent starts. Chris Hartman and Rafael Bejarano send out Bolt at Midnight (#4)after a pair of strong efforts in restricted claiming races on this oval. This is a big step up in class, at least today it is when facing an above average field for this condition. He’s in the best form of his career though and he clearly likes racing on this course. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 83/407 (20.4%, $739.40, $1.82 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 18/81 (22.2%, $142.40, $1.76 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)