In a happy accident, the races I wrote up in this one happen to cover all the ones in the $50K plus Pick Six Carryover. It’s a fun sequence to boot!
It should be noted that each and every week our In the Money Plus subscribers receive “grid picks” from the various podcasts that make it easy to keep track of the horses we select on the shows. This week, sponsored by Santa Anita, I’ll be posting a couple of articles that recap the picks JK and I have on the shows. Even though there will be some overlap, for purposes of ease, I’ll post one for the Coast-to-Coast, and also this one on all the races we talked about on the livestream – the whole Pick Six and Santa Anita with some bonus stakes coverage earlier in the card. I hope you enjoy!
SA 3: G2 Santa Monica
#3 Kopion for me. The case becomes clear when you just look at the 7 furlong races. Lightly raced five-year-old still has upside and her condition arrow is pointed up with this being her second race off that long layoff.
Jk 3
SA 4: G3 Bob and Beverly Lewis
I did a full write-up here but basically I’m trying the upside of #3 Rodriguez and standing stubbornly against the champ and the rail runner, for whom I question the distance. The other two are no hopers.
Jk
2
SA 5: Allowance
#4 WORD PLAY is one of those milers with speed that I always tend to think will enjoy the downhill course at Santa Anita. That race from Opening Day has produced good form and the blinkers could sharpen her up.
#10 MYSTICISM is a potential pace play at a price. She hasn’t been overly impressive on the track but she’s got an amazing pedigree, by War Front out of an Arch dam. Added ground could be to her benefit. Hoping Mike Smith goes to the front from this advantageous outside post.
JK
4-6-11
SA 6: G3 Megahertz
People often talk about the drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company as the biggest in racing but another really important drop is from Grade 1 company to any other stake (I get suspicious when G1 horses drop lower than that).
#4 RASHMI has that angle going for her. Her preferred trip is to be forward, and she should be able to achieve that position against this level of competition. Dettori was aboard for her maiden well and should be able to coax enough out of the finish.
#3 SAREEHA got a good setup last time but she was running hard into the fastest part of the race and the fig she earned makes her a major threat. Looking at pace figures she won’t be too far back. Reformed claimer will be tested for class but she just might pass.
JK
A: 4-1
B: 5-6
SA 7: Allowance
5 PILOT COMMANDER is a triple fig and if he doesn’t win, I can’t tell you who will. Rather be with than against and might be a good free square in a bet like the $2 Pick Six. The higher dollar increment makes it harder for the biggest bettors, the computer groups, to bet efficiently so you may be able to get a little equity even with an obvious horse like this (that’s my working theory anyway).
JK
5
SA 8: G3 Thunder Road
Thunder Road. I sung this one at karaoke recently.
I’m a known fan of #9 SEAL TEAM horse and that form line, within two to superstar Johannes, makes him a major contender. The post isn’t ideal but I think he has the tactical speed to navigate the trip.
#7 EL POTENTE makes sense on figures but this is grass racing and the reformed claimer will be tested for class. Having said that, he comes out well on a collateral line of form through Mi Hermano Ramon — El P was half-a-length behind him in the Lure, and he beat Seal Team by three-quarters of a length in the San Gabriel. It doesn’t pay to be too literal about form like that, but it suggests he belongs.
B
#2 AIR FORCE RED has a puncher’s chance for the upset because of his speed. He’s run some big ones on the engine and he should be very sharp second-off-the-layoff for a shrewd barn stretching back out. An effort like the one from the Kilroe back in ’23 could win this.
JK
A 7-9
B
B 2-3-4-5
SA 9: Calbred Maiden
4 BERLIN WALL didn’t break at all on debut and then moved nicely into the race, running on well for third. The 1-2 runners there stayed that way around the track, making his wide move all the more impressive. Based on how strongly he was bet that day, I am guessing he has more speed than he showed there and could be very dangerous in this spot.
#3 GREY AREA was in that same race, but he also had maybe a tricky trip for that flow chasing wide. I think he’ll be a big price and I’ll include as well. I’m willing to fade the other two coming out of that race, the second because I thought it was an easy trip with every chance to go by, and the fourth I really just didn’t like his action. They could certainly both be used in deeper spreads but I’m inclined to take a stand.
Adding in #6 Letmein based on JK’s excellent case for inclusion on the show.
JK
4-6
SA 10: Allowance
6 JEWELLED SHILLEILAGH will face a different pace scenario than last time I think. There he was able to stalk a slow pace and it should be quicker up front here. But I am hoping that Rispoli, who knows him quite well right now and rides well in these turf miles, will be able to adapt to whatever situation presents itself and make the best of it.
There’s a world in which this is a total boilover pace-wise and if it is, why can’t #1 FREEPORT JOE run on for at least a little something? He’s Grade 3 placed on synth and has a couple of 87s on turf that stack up nicely with this field. Good draw, too. Odd that they ran this 8-year-old warrior on dirt for the first time at 7. I suppose he could be declining but maybe he’s just a little better on turf/synth.
B
7 Ciro di Marzio ran a big figure for the stateside debut while not acting well during the race. There is untapped upside here I just don’t trust at all.
JK
A: 6-7
[…] PTF’s Santa Anita Saturday Write-Up Including All Races in the $50K+ Pick Six Carryover […]