Well, the complexion of this race changed drastically on Saturday when the 1-5 favorite, Nysos was declared scratched for this race. That leaves only four runners in this Grade 2 contest, where only two are eligible to earn Derby Points. If either Scatify or McVay can win this race, they’ll be all but assured a spot in the Starting Gate for the Derby. Meanwhile, Wine Me Up and Imagination are likely trying to build a resume to be competitive in a Grade 1 Derby Prep or the Preakness, as neither are eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
The first post for the 10 race program is set for 12:30 (PT) with the San Felipe scheduled to go off at 3:02 (PT). Do note the morning line odds have been revised to reflect the defection of the heavy favorite.
Santa Anita Park, Saturday 3/4/23, Race 6: The Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes
25-70 Total Derby points (50/20/15/10)
1 – Scatify – (9-5 ML, 200-1 Circa): He was used hard when he was sent from the outside stall to claim the lead in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. I liked the idea of trying to take it to Nysos early in that race, but Mc Vay was eager and he really helped to push the tempo to set the table perfectly for the favorite, who was simply much the best. The was a good try at two turns for the first time, and although WIne Me Up was a little better than he was late in that race, I think the ceiling is higher for him. I’d prefer to see him be able to rate, but with his rail draw, I think Berrios has to commit to the lead again. I do think he can take another step forward in what could very well turn into a merry-go-round race. If you like him in the race, the 200-1 Derby Future Book odds that you could get on him at Circa (which has likely gone down significantly in the last 18 hours), represented great value. There’s a very good chance that he could win this race, which all but guarantees him a spot in the gate in the Derby
2 – Wine Me Up (9-5 ML): While he still only has one win to his credit, this son of Vino Rosso continues to pick up checks in these graded stakes races. He was no match for his stablemate last out but he hung around to be second. Since he does have that grittiness to him, his best chance of winning this race might just be the war of attrition. He shows a nice pattern of improvement, but I prefer some of the others in this spot.
3 – Nysos (SCRATCHED):
4 – McVay (5-1 ML): He’s still a maiden that is trying to figure some things out, but when you pay $1.25 million for a horse like this, you might as well be trying to figure things out at the highest level of competition. His last race wasn’t terrible for a two turn debut. He didn’t corner well on either turn, which likely kept him from sniffing a placing in that race. He was passed by the 5th and 6th place finishers at the top of the stretch when he took the second turn wide. He did battle back gamely to pass them and finish 4th, which does feel a bit meaningful. Shirreffs’ horses tend to improve the more they race, so if he can keep his cool, I think he could sit a nice trip in 4th, and make one run at the leaders. I don’t think he can win this race by trying to go with these runners early on.
5 – Imagination (8-5 ML): Baffert’s other runner was second in allowance company when making his 4th career start last time out. Despite his $1,050,000 price tag, he has not been campaigned like one of Baffert’s better horses. He’ll also have to prove that he can win a race by passing horses, which he has not done yet. I think the ground loss that he’s likely going to have to concede is going to matter, unless the rain yesterday caused the inner lanes to be a less desirable spot.
The Verdict: 1-4
There’s not a lot to say about this race with the defection of a horse that has the potential to be great. I think there’s a very good chance that this race is run like a merry-go-round, with Scatify leading from start to finish. If I can get better than 5-1 (which is going to be hard in a four horse race), I could be tempted to make a small win wager on Mc Vay. He will need to continue to improve, but if Fresu can get him to settle off the pacesetters, he might be able to outfinish the three shorter prices. Neither Baffert runner is really interesting to me in this spot. Both could win this race and no one would be surprised. Perhaps he’s very comfortable running his B string against the others, especially since some of the potential candidates for this race defected due to the presence of Nysos.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
