Sometimes, as a horseplayer and in the weather forecast, everything goes cold. Overnight temps dipping into the 50’s affected the track a bit, and I’ve gone completely cold as a handicapper with several close calls and many good boxes (including tipping the first four finishers in the Lady Erie correctly, but in the wrong order) but not many outright wins. That being said, yesterday’s card was great to watch with tight finishes, a ducking and weaving run by Lady Erie winner Quiet Street, and overall spectacular racing across the board. Let’s get turned around and go full steam ahead into this Tuesday card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 ½ furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $10,000 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
Fairly easy race to sift through because if Valiant Victoria (#4) is still in form, I think she wires the field, especially with weather in the area tending to favor the front-end horses. The Spieth duo of trainer Aldana and jockey Scott got this horse across the line in allowance company last out, and with this small step back, I expect her to look good again. Half Birthday (#6) is the only horse here competitive enough to go rounds with the #4, and I don’t think she’ll get the opportunity to. Kanazawa (#5) returns to the Erie tapeta where she has a win and a second-place finish in three starts, and should look much improved returning to this preferred surface.
Race 1 selections:4-6-5
RACE 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
Unless there’s a drastic regression or improvement, this race comes down to three horses. This Laughs On You (#4) feels the most likely to win after fending off tough horses last time out. Chubs Rocket (#7) has run four consecutive Beyer Speed Figures between 54 and 58, so I expect him to continue with these fast figures especially considering he comes out of Kevin Rice’s barn. Camilo (#5) slots into third based on recent company and retaining one of the meets top riders, Antonio Gallardo.
Race 2 selections:4-7-5
RACE 3 – 5 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 4:24
Time to get some fresh faces in here with a 2-year-old maiden race. Fun Time Lindsay (#6) gets Edwin Gonzalez, a jock making the most of his opportunities with three wins last Wednesday and a win on the tapeta on Gulfstream Park’s competitive Monday card. This horse also turned in a quick 3-furlong work that clocked in at 35 seconds flat, and she has a start on most of the field, experience that will aid her today. If yesterday taught me anything, it’s that fast works are never guaranteed to translate to race form, but I can’t turn away Boomesherang (#3) coming from the Ron Potts barn, where his 2-year-olds are winning 29% of their starts, nor do I want to knock Antonio Gallardo unless I really have to. This daughter of Vekoma also has four sharp half-mile works with no time slower than a 48.3, but I’m only slotting her into second because I suspect she’ll get bet down heavily at the window. Another trainer with a 29% winrate with 2-year-olds (and an even better ROI) is Nestor Rivera, shipping in Cairo Mia (#2) from Thistledown with Israel Rodriguez scheduled to ride. I don’t like this horse at 9-2 with her unimpressive works over the Ohio dirt, but should she drift she’s a decent bet to hedge with.
Race 3 selections:6-3-2
RACE 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 4:51
If Hope Rising (#5) gets to the lead, Antonio Gallardo could be trusted to ration that speed all the way to the wire, though last time he let the horse get a bit too far ahead and it potentially cost them the win. Caparbia (#8) takes the drop in class and in claiming tag, and a horse out of her last race already broke her maiden in her next start. Channel Me In (#1) is a flakey horse who doesn’t always show up, but the last two times she drew the rail she turned 40+ speed figures. If that trend continues, she’s dangerous.
Race 4 selections:5-8-1
RACE 5 – 6 furlongs, Starter Allowance Post Time: 5:18
No need to think about this race too hard. If Fadethenoise (#1) rolls up, I know what horse my wagering money runs through. This horse has only lost from the rail post once, all the way back in early 2024, which only improves his shot to win here. Six straight wins for the Mendelssohn son has me looking elsewhere for value to play underneath. While I do think the front-end winning out is likely, I’m going against the other early speed-types with Span Of Control (#2) for second, given his running style as a closer will serve him well when the front end fails to make a dent in the #1’s running. Globes (#5) is interesting with two half-mile works clocking in at 47.2 seconds and is cutting back to the shortest distance he’s ever gone.
Race 5 selections: 1-2-5
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 5:45
Oftentimes a horse switching surfaces offers the potential to run even faster…or even slower. I’d be willing to hedge that Circle P (#2) could lose a step changing to tapeta and still win this under the hold of leading rider Gaddiel Martinez. Shadow Factor (#4) is coming off a career-high Beyer and Ron Potts turns his winners around at a decent 21% clip, worth the inclusion here. The red-hot Scooter Davis barn, in a scrum for leading trainer with Kevin Rice, is sending out John Dutton (#5) for his 6-year-old debut. This horse worked 4 furlongs in a fiery 45.1 second blitz, and when they work that fast, it’s a must-have price at 8-1, not to mention Davis is 6-for-10 in getting his barn to win off the long layoff.
Race 6 selections:2-4-5
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 6:12
Ever since Endless Glory (#2) got up to speed on the tapeta she’s been a beast her last two starts, turning the highest last-out Beyer of the field. She retains Carlos Barbosa in the irons as well, a good sign to see a sustained repertoire between a horse and jockey. Her old rival Intimate (#4) appears a tough beat to her outside, facing winners for the first time after breaking her maiden over a mile and 70 yards. Violenta (#6) makes the change to leading rider Gaddiel Martinez, who’s cut his teeth on the sprint races to hold that slim margin in the standings.
Race 7 selections:2-4-6
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
Not for the first time this week do I wish I made enough money to put in a claim, this time for Silent Diva (#11), but not because I think she can win, I just really like her pedigree. Lillesand (#4) was able to figure out the routes last time in her July 3rd triumph and she drops even further in tag today. Tango Zulu (#6) gets the nod for second based on experience, finishing in the money in half her starts at this distance. Mima Princess (#10) gets the shoutout for being bred, owned and trained by Wadji Bouali, and this filly was only second by a neck last out. I expect big things in her third consecutive start going long.
Race 8 selections:4-6-10-11
Antonio Gallardo was the only jock to win multiple races today, taking the double on races 3 and 4 and bringing him ever closer to Gaddiel Martinez, who only got one victory. Brendan Kulp’s barn got two wins as his stable starts to heat up in the summer stretch, and Kevin Rice get one to pull away slightly from Scooter Davis at the top of the trainer standings. See you tomorrow for more Presque Isle action!
