Our Kentucky Derby Prep Race Series at In The Money Media kicks off this weekend with the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. As we did last year, we are planning on offering horse by horse analysis for every North American race that offers points toward entry in the Kentucky Derby, ending with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 13th, 2024..
Super Saver won this race in 2009 and in 2010, he joined Cannonade, Clyde Van Dusen, and Reigh Count as the only horses to win both this race and the Kentucky Derby. While last year’s edition of this race was not the strongest running, a pair of Grade 1 winner’s, including the recent winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, White Abarrio, emerged from this race in 2021. The winner of that race, Smile Happy, also did well for himself, most notably winning the Grade 2 Alysheba here at Churchill on Oaks Day this spring.
A field of eight has been assembled this year and while two of those runners are graded stakes placed, all of them are in search of their first stakes victory. The second of six Kentucky Derby Future Wagers starts at noon on 11/23 and runs through 6:00 (ET) on 11/26. Five of the eight runners in this race are represented with a betting interest in that wager.
Churchill Downs, Saturday 11/25/23, Race 11: The Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
20 Total Derby points (10/4/3/2/1)
1 – Awesome Road (7-2 ML, 150-1 Caesars, 80-1 ML KY Derby Future Pool 2, Horse #1): The Albaugh Family Stables paid $600K for this son of Quality Road, out of the A.P. Indy mare, Orate. While his siblings have had mixed reviews on the racetrack, he certainly looked the part when he was a clear winner in his debut when going six furlongs at Ellis in August. He dueled on the front end that afternoon before pulling clear of Stronghold. That one went on to break his maiden at Churchill in October and was recently a distant second to Nysos in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes last weekend at Del Mar. Awesome Road came back to run in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland where he was sent off as the 3-1 second choice in the wagering. He broke inward a bit, costing him valuable early position. He was not able to make it into the early mix, being forced to sit off the pace, taking some dirt in his face for the first time. He didn’t seem to relish that experience and never really ran his race that day. I think highly of both the winner and the runner-up of that race. Locked, came in first and closed to be third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a few weeks ago while The Wine Steward was a late defection in that same race. I think both of those horses could very well be players on the Derby Trail, so finishing behind them, while getting a less than ideal trip is somewhat excusable in my book. I like him a good bit at his 7-2 morning line price, but I suspect he’ll be a shorter price when the gate springs open. His trainer, Brad Cox, is looking to win this race for the second consecutive year. Cox was a dominant force in these early Derby prep races last season and I think the betting public will keep that in mind. 3-1 feels fair, but I think his odds are going to be 2-1 or lower, which would lead me to look for better value elsewhere if I’m placing win wagers on this race. .
2 – Honor Marie (8-1 ML): Trainer Whitworth Beckman had his first stakes winner earlier this year when Harlan Estate won the $500K Tapit Stakes in August at Kentucky Downs. Today, he’ll try to win his first graded stakes race with this son of Honor Code. The dam has produced three runners, including him, that have won in maiden special weight company in Kentucky. Abarta broke his maiden on debut and went on to be second in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes in 2020. Quaternion was a winner in a maiden race on the Derby undercard this spring. Honor Marie broke his maiden here on debut at Churchill sprinting six furlongs in September. He came back to finish second in the slop in a seven furlong allowance race on the first Stars of Tomorrow card here in October. He’ll make his third career start today and his first at two turns. Both his half-siblings won when going two turns, so there’s every reason to believe that he can improve in his third career start, while adding distance. With the three shorter priced runners wanting to be forwardly placed, he could be the one that could get rolling late if his rivals start to tire. I think his 8-1 morning line feels about right and at 10-1 or better, he may offer the best value in this field.
3 – Real Men Violin (5-1 ML, 200-1 Caesars, 99-1 ML, KY Derby Future Pool 2, Horse #29): Ken McPeek has trained three winners of this race, scoring most recently with Smile Happy in 2021. He’ll take another swing this year with this son of Mendelssohn. He’s another graduate of the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill last month, breaking his maiden in his 5th career try. He finished in the money in his four prior starts, two of which came on the dirt and two which were contested on the turf. He’s run well on an off track, but the forecast leading up to this race is dry. He’s run well on this track, and he’s another runner that would benefit from a strong pace up front. While his progression of races on the main track is solid, I do wonder if he’s fast enough to win at this level. For me, 15-1 or higher would be about the price I’d be looking for, so starting off at 5-1 is the not best sign in terms of prospective value.
4 – Dancing Groom (10-1 ML, 99-1 ML KY Derby Future Pool 2, Horse #9): The freshman crop of Vino Rosso is off to a good start, winning 14% of their overall races and 20% of their main track routes so far. He is one of those winners, breaking his maiden in an off the turf maiden allowance contest at Saratoga going one mile. While he was a “much the best” winner that day, he didn’t appear to beat much. His effort was good enough for Antonio Sano to roll the dice and enter him in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct last month. He was a distant third that afternoon in the slop, finishing behind Timberlake and General Partner, who would go on to finish 4th and 6th, respectively, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He did finish in front of Fierceness that afternoon, who was the dominant winner of that race. He also finished in front of El Grande O, who went on to win the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York breds on 10/29. While that could be a selling point for someone looking to make a case for this longshot, I’m going to be siding against him. Antonio Sano sent him to Gulfstream after that race where he recorded three workouts. He then shipped him here about two weeks ago. While he’s not the fastest work horse in the mornings, I thought his local work here last week was on the slower side. I’m not convinced he’s fast enough to win at this level and all the extra traveling tells me that this race might not have been part of the original plan for him. I’ll be siding against him today.
5 – Nomos (12-1 ML, 100-1 Caesars): As this race will be run 160 days before the 150th Kentucky Derby, Todd Pletcher is already holding a strong hand with Fierceness and Locked leading the way for his stable. He’s looking to bolster his roster with this son of Uncle Mo, who is slated to make his first career start on the dirt in this Grade 2 event. His full sister is graded stakes placed on the turf and has a win and a second on the synthetic, but has never competed on traditional dirt. While the dam raced exclusively on the turf, she was sired by Tapit, so there is a chance that this colt could take to the dirt. He easily beat a weak field in his debut at Monmouth in August. He ran okay to be 4th in the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga in his next start, but his effort in the Bourbon last month at Keeneland was not great. Despite breaking from Post 10, he had an opportunity for a decent trip. However, he couldn’t keep pace as the tempo quickened and was forced to swing out wide in the stretch. He was already under a drive at that point and didn’t really respond, finishing last of 12 in a race that wasn’t particularly fast. While there is a chance that he could respond to the surface switch, he has the lowest speed figures in the race. Couple that with the fact that he’s trained by Pletcher and ridden by Saez, I don’t foresee there being any real value on him. I would likely need to get him at 25-1 to 30-1 for me to think about taking a small chance with him, and I just don’t see that happening.
6 – Stretch Ride (3-1 ML, 80-1 ML KY Derby Future Pool 2, Horse #33): This son of Street Sense is the only member of this octet which has never tasted defeat. He was a winner at first asking at Churchill when sprinting six furlongs in September. That was a solid race which had three next out winners (including him). He came back to run in an optional $100K/N1X allowance race at Keeneland last month, while stretching out to two turns for the first time. He passed that test with flying colors, beating a solid field by five lengths. He beat a speedy Brad Cox second time starter and a stakes placed runner in that race. He was purchased for a mere $5K, which was $70K less than the stud fee for Street Sense. However, he already has had a positive return on investment, winning $135K in his first two starts. Dale Romans sticks with Martin Chuan, who rode him to victory in both starts. Chuan has four wins with 17 starters at this meet and is looking for his first North American Stakes win in 2023. He’s gone off at 14-1 and 9-1 in his first two starts and while the chances of getting those odds on him today are likely nil, I think 3-1 would be more than fair.
7 – Risk It (5-2 ML, 65-1 Caesars, 30-1 ML KY Derby Future Pool 2, Horse #30): Every year it seems Steve Asmussen has unveiled at least one highly promising two year old that is dominant in maiden special weight company at Saratoga. This son of Gun Runner was that horse for him this summer, after he crushed a field by four widening lengths when going six furlongs on debut. That effort was good enough to earn him a spot in the starting gate for the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes here in September. He tracked a leader who was blazing an ambitious pace that afternoon. He was grinding toward the front, but at no point in the last half mile of that race did it feel like he was going to win. West Saratoga sat just behind him and easily went right on by with a wide move off the turn to take the lead and draw clear by about two lengths. Risk It barely held second, holding off both Liberal Arts and Seize the Grey. West Saratoga came back to finish 5th in the Breeders Futurity, finishing in front of Awesome Ride. Liberal Arts did come back to win the Street Sense in the slop last month and Seize the Grey finished well behind Stretch Ride in allowance company at Keeneland in his last try. Prior to the morning line odds coming out for this race, I thought this horse was going to be the shorter priced runner that I’d try to beat.I don’t like him as the favorite in this spot, and I’d need to get somewhere around 5-1 or 6-1 for me to get on board his train this afternoon.
8 – One Red Cent (20-1 ML): The longest shot on the board feels like he’s in way too deep in this spot. He’s coming off a pair of respectable efforts in sprints at Keeneland and Churchill, however, those races came in maiden claiming company. He was an upset winner at the beginning of the month with $100K maiden claimers after just missing with $30K maiden claimers in his previous try. He has two turn experience on the turf, finishing off the board twice at Ellis. His effort at one mile with maiden allowance types here in September does not inspire much confidence. He won’t be on any of my tickets in this race.
The verdict: 2-6-1
I see the trio of shorter priced runners, Awesome Road, Stretch Ride, and Risk It entering the backstretch in the first three positions. After his last race, I think Prat is going to try to put Awesome Road on the front end, and his rail draw should give him every opportunity to get there. However, I do think Stretch Ride and Risk It are not going to concede the early lead without putting up a fight. As a result, I think Risk It has the potential to sit the least desirable trip of this group.
I think there’s a definite possibility that the pace of the first half mile ends up being on the aggressive side, so I’m going to try to look for one of the longer prices to use on top. At 10-1 or better, I think Honor Marie is the most interesting runner in that group. He has two solid races in sprints, but the other two runners from this mare have excelled at two turns. I think Rafael Bejarano can use his inside position to sit a comfortable, ground saving trip, in the middle of the pack, before tipping out for the stretch drive. He’ll need to move forward, but I do think he’s eligible to do so in his third career start and his first try at two turns.
Stretch Ride feels like he has a big shot to win this race as well. I’m hoping that his human connections, which have a lower profile than those of the other two shorter priced runners, will be the reason that his price hovers around his 3-1 morning line figure. I thought his effort in allowance company last month at Keeneland was sparkling, so having those positive results at this same 1 mile and 1/16 distance is a huge plus.
I do see a scenario where Awesome Road controls the early tempo and is able to keep finding on the front end. I think he had a valid excuse when facing Grade 1 company last month, and perhaps that poor finish is enough to keep his price close to his 7-2 morning line figure. I do think he’ll be the post time favorite though, and if that is the case, I’ll probably look for better value in the vertical exotics. However, he would definitely be one that I’d be using in the multi-race wagers.
From a Futures standpoint, I see Awesome Road and Stretch Ride as offering the best value at this point. Risk It has lower odds based on his big maiden score at the Spa, and efforts like that always seem to move the needle at this time of year. The problem with getting value the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager is that if any one of the five horses in this race runs a big race, their odds are going to significantly drop before the wagering closes tomorrow afternoon. If I’m betting this wager, I’m often looking to place bets on horses that are not running when the wager is active. There’s enough recency bias in these pools that can float some of the prices on other runners before the betting ends.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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