Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes – By Eric Solomon

13 horses have come together to run for a share of a gaudy $1,250,000 in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. The winner of the Southwest Stakes three weeks ago, Mystik Dan, is sitting this one out. Timberlake, who was the winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes back in October, will be making his three year old debut in this spot. Despite the large field, this field lacks a lot of the depth that the Risen Star Stakes had last weekend. 

Historically, this race has produced five three year old champions since the turn of the century. Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lookin’ at Lucky, Will Take Charge, and American Pharoah were all victorious in this race en route to a Championship Three Year Old Campaign. In addition, Lawyer Ron was the winner of this race in 2006, and he would go on to be the Champion Older Male Horse in 2007. Longshots have fared well in this race the last two years with Un Ojo winning in 2022 and Confidence Game in 2023. 

The weather at Oaklawn should be much more favorable this afternoon than it was for the Southwest Stakes. Warmer temperatures are here and the track figures to be fast and what should be a terrific afternoon of racing in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Post time for this race is 5:23 (CT). 

Oaklawn Park Saturday 2/24/24, Race 11: The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes

100 Total Derby points (50/20/15/10/5)

1 – Carbone (15-1 ML, 125-1 Circa): The betting public made him the 9-5 post time favorite in the Southwest after a strong allowance win on this oval two starts back. He pressured his stablemate, Otto the Conqueror, for the first ¾ of a mile before coming up empty at the top of the stretch. With several top riders overseas for the Saudi Cup, Steve Asmussen turns to Isaac Castillo to ride this son of Mitole. I think his rail post forces him to send him to the front here. He’s likely going to have to contend with the stretch-out sprinter, Time for Truth, who seems like he has to be on the engine early from post 13. While some may be able to forgive his effort in the Southwest, while writing it off as a function of the off-track, I have my doubts about him being a top level competitor at this distance. While the 15-1 morning line price feels reasonably fair, I wouldn’t be surprised if his price goes down and is too short for me to get involved. I’m not sure he’s the best fit for this race. 

2 – Northern Flame (5-1 ML, 300-1 ML): His owners paid $425K for this son of Flameaway, whose grand dam is Darling My Darling, a horse that Jack Oxley also owned. He progressed nicely as a two year old, breaking his maiden in his third career start and then finishing 4th in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. McPeek opted for the Street Sense Stakes as opposed to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he struggled mightily on a very sloppy course that afternoon. He lost all chance at the start when he stumbled out of the gate, spotting Carbone several lengths and affording him a very easy lead. He came back to win at the N2L allowance level last month, winning the faster of the two heats, going gate to wire. Despite losing to Carbone in December, I do like him better than that one here. However, my concern is that his two wins have been in races where he could set the tempo. There are faster horses to his inside and outside that should keep that from happening. I think he can sit a very nice trip in the second flight, I’m just not sure that’s the race he wants to run. While I get that the alternatives to the favorite are limited in this race, his 5-1 morning line figure feels way too low. While I could see him hitting the board, winning feels like a bit of a stretch. I’m not interested in him as the third choice in the wagering. 

3 – Common Defense (30-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): Ken McPeek also trains this son of Karakontie, who has three starts, all three Beyers that are all in the lower 70’s. He broke in the middle of the field, but had to tap on the brakes early when his stablemate, Mystik Dan crossed over to secure the rail. He made forward progress while racing alongside the eventual race winner down the backstretch. He lost position as he struggled to get around the Baffert runner, Wynstock, who was backing up badly. He stayed down inside and made some headway late, but he was never threatening to finish in the money. He should get another solid pace in front of him, and Brian Hernandez, who was absolutely masterful when riding Mystik Dan, will pick up the mount today with his top Derby contender staying in the barn. He did run a big race in his only start on a fast track when breaking his maiden. He feels like a horse that could easily sneak into the bottom of a trifecta, assuming he can take a necessary step forward. However, I do a scenario where he could pull off a huge upset in this race. 

4 – Tejon Pass (30-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): Peter Miller brought him to Oaklawn for the Renaissance Stakes in December, which was contested at six furlongs. There was no shame in him finishing second to Valentine’s Candy, who won another sprint stakes race here two weeks ago. Miller dropped him back into allowance company to try a two turn race for the first time. He was the 9-5 post time favorite in the slower of the two allowance heats on 1/28. He had the rail and was used hard while battling with a longshot to hold that position. He started to fall back, so Santana moved him off the rail, where he tipped out four wide. He grinded home in a race where no one was finishing all that well. He finished 5th, less than three lengths behind the winner, Woodcourt. However, I don’t see that as a race that is likely to produce a horse that runs well here, since the horse that ran the best race is running earlier on the card in allowance company. He’s a pass for me.

5 – Magic Grant (50-1 ML, 450-1 Circa): I thought he was a clever longshot in the Remington Springboard Mile two starts back in February, however, some of the early speed defected from that race and he left himself too much work to do, as he rallied into third place. He came back in the Southwest Stakes where he didn’t run a step, finishing 27+ lengths behind the winner. I liked the effort from Just Steel that day and I don’t see him making up the almost 20 lengths he’d need to improve to finish in front of that one. He won’t be on any of my tickets. 

6 – Dimatic (8-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): He was the beneficiary of a picture perfect ride from Joel Rosario when breaking his maiden on the Southwest Stakes undercard. Rosario is not riding here today, so Asmussen hands the reins over to Tyler Gaffalione for his first try against winners. His full brother, Dreamlike, was a neck away from breaking his maiden in the Wood Memorial, and a ½ length away from beating Saudi Crown in the Pennsylvania Derby. He finished his three year old season finishing 8th, 8 ½ lengths behind White Abarrio in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Another foal from this dam is stakes placed so he definitely has a high ceiling. This is a tough spot to face winners for the first time, and I think this is a horse that will get better as the year goes on. I think he stands to get a favorable trip, and I could see him passing several runners to hit the board in this race. 

7 – Timberlake (6-5 ML, 35-1 Circa): The proven commodity in this field was last seen finishing 4th behind Fierceness, Muth, and Locked in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita back in November. His impressive score in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct in October made him one of the shorter prices in that race. He’s been working like he hasn’t missed a beat in the off season. Brad Cox won 28% of his races last year, but that percentage drops to 18% when talking about horses coming off a 3-6 month layoff. Despite the huge purse, this race is not as deep as the Risen Star that ran last week. He’s the only graded stakes winner in the field, but he still has to show that he can be effective at two turns. He’s a logical contender, but he’ll likely be a very short price in this race. I think he’s the most likely winner, but he’s vulnerable enough to take a stab somewhere else. 

8 – Next Level (30-1 ML, 125-1 Circa): This is a runner who has been ambitiously campaigned from the jump. He ran in two Grade 1 stakes races before breaking his maiden. After winning his first career race, he jumped back into stakes company, but finished last in the Gun Runner Stakes. Desormeaux took a more conservative approach with him last month, scratching out of the Lecomte Stakes in favor of an allowance race here the following week. He was overlooked in the wagering, but came within a head of beating Woodcourt. I do like that he proved that he can run his race while coming from off the pace. However, that was the slower of the two allowance races on that card, and while several runners from that race are shooting their shot with a huge purse on the line here, I don’t think any of them are going to be a factor in the outcome of this race. 

9 – Lagynos (20-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): The third horse in this race trained by Steve Asmussen tried setting the pace in the Smarty Jones Stakes here on New Year’s Day, but he folded up and finished 6th. While Catching Freedom somewhat validated the form from that race with a solid third place finish in the Risen Star last weekend, I’m not really seeing him as a standout in this spot. He’s drawn wider than he was that day and he’s going to have competition for the lead. One of his two wins came on the turf and the other was in an allowance race that was taken off the grass. By clearing the N1X allowance condition, Asmussen doesn’t have a ton of options with him at this moment, but I think I’d rather see him in a race like the Black Gold Stakes at the Fair Grounds next weekend on the turf. 

10 – Mena (15-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): He’s a full brother to Caddo River, so it was surprising to see him entered at Keeneland this fall in a $30K maiden claiming race in just his second start. He was claimed that day after he annihilated that soft field by more than 12 widening lengths. He came back to handily score in a starter allowance race at Churchill at this same 1 1/16 mile distance/ He didn’t fire on the Tapeta at Turfway, but he came back to run a game second behind Northern Flame in allowance company last time out. Steve Hobby has this horse that was named for the late rider, Miguel Mena, in good form right. I like the progression of his races leading into this race. If the favorite falters, he’s one of the more intriguing longshots in this field.  

11 – Just Steel (7-2 ML, 80-1 Circa): Very quietly, D. Wayne Lukas is getting this son of Justify into top shape. After some up and down efforts, he’s put together three strong races in a row in stakes company. He won the Ed Brown Stakes in November at Churchill going 6 ½ furlongs. That effort was good enough to make him the morning line favorite for the Smarty Jones Stakes in January. The bettors didn’t see it that way, as they were on the right horse, but I thought his second place finish to Catching Freedom was a better effort than I was expecting him to run. He was second again in the Southwest Stakes last out, but I thought his effort was very good. He was wide throughout on a day where the outer lanes were not the best place to be. He moved forward willingly to challenge for the lead after tracking a strong pace. Mystik Dan got over from the rail to the ten-hole on the first turn and he got a dream ride and a dream run along the inside, where he powered home. Just Steel kept battling and held second over Liberal Arts, who finally got going late. He is an interesting alternative to the favorite in this race, but I don’t think he’s going to go off at 10-1 like he did last time out. He’s 7-2 on the morning line and his two most brilliant efforts came at one turn. I think he’s been too good since coming here to not use him on some tickets, but I think he’s more of a horse to use underneath as opposed to the top spot, especially if he’s the second choice in the wagering. 

12 – Woodcourt (20-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): He’s a four time winner that ran in that optional $100K/N2L allowance race with the tag last time out. He came through along the inside with a well-timed ride by Manny Esquivel to get the victory. He continues to get a little bit better with each start, but after nine starts, I don’t see him taking a big enough jump in ability in four short weeks to contend at this level of competition. 

13 – Time for Truth (15-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): Last week in the Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans, we had a stretch-out sprinter draw the far outside post, and we’ll deal with that again today with this son of Omaha Beach. He was excellent when winning on debut here on New Year’s Eve. His effort that day was backed up when Mr. Fillip came back to break his maiden in his next start. He came back to try to tackle Valentine Candy in the Ozark Stakes here two weeks ago. He was stubborn on the lead, but he was no match for the three-time stakes winner. His dam had four wins in her career, three of them at seven furlongs and one at 1 mile and 70 yards. Offspring of Omaha Beach have won 20% of the time in their first route races (5 for 25). He’s been an impressive horse so far in two starts, but trying to win a Grade 2 race from this post in his first route feels like a very tall order. 

The Verdict: 3-7-6

On paper, this race should be a very comfortable spot for Timberlake (#7) to make his seasonal debut. He is the most accomplished runner here, being the only graded stakes winner. That win came in Grade 1 company in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct on a very sloppy course. He ran well enough in the Breeders’ Cup to pair his Beyer Speed Figure for the Champagne, which is the top number in the field. However, there is some vulnerability here for a horse likely to go into the starting at odds lower than even money. He’s never won a two-turn race and he’s making his first start in nearly four months. He attended the pace in the Grade 1 Hopeful, which had a major pace meltdown and an unlikely longshot winner. He has a new rider for the first time in five starts, and I’m worried that he’ll be a little too keen in a race with a lot of potential early speed. He may be talented enough to overcome all of this and I think he’s got to be on the multi-race bets, however I’d like an alternative at a price in this race.

While Just Steel (#11) is the logical alternative, he feels like a horse that will keep earning Derby Points by finishing in the money. He’s another runner that has yet to win a race at two turns, and while his local efforts have been good, I think his draw and the pace scenario are going to be a lot for him to overcome.

The last two years, this race has been won by a big longshot who rallied into a strong pace and I think there’s a chance that happens again today. Common Defense (#3) runs back after a 5th place finish in the Southwest Stakes, which was his first try against winners. He had a less than ideal trip while also racing on a sloppy surface for the first time. He was a strong maiden winner in his only start on a fast track here in January. While admittedly, I don’t think the competition in that maiden race was particularly strong, I do think his performance was visually impressive. Brian Hernandez is back in town after winning both Derby Points races three weeks ago for McPeek. Mystik Dan is opting to wait for the Arkansas Derby, so getting a savvy veteran who rides closers extremely well is a plus. I don’t like a lot of the others in this race, so assuming the favorite is not quite at the top of his game and some of the others jockey for front end position, ensuring a strong pace, I can see him crossing the finish line first and blowing up the toteboard. He’s listed at 30-1 and in this big field, that’s a fair number. I will have a win bet on him at 20-1 or greater and he’ll be on multi-race plays, assuming the track is playing fairly, which has been the case for pretty much the entire meet. 

Dimatic (#6) is a B line play for me in this spot. He was green when handily breaking his maiden in his third career start in a maiden race on the Southwest undercard. Despite his antics in the stretch, he cleared off as a much the best winner that day. If he can keep a straight course today, I think he’s eligible to improve. I’d like to get better than his 8-1 morning line though, but seeing as how he feels like he;s the best of the three Asmussen runners in the race and the way his barn has performed here this month, I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2023. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.