Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 2/24/24 (Rebel Day) – By Eric Solomon

The racing office has put together a tremendous card, supporting the Rebel Stakes, which is essentially a “win and you’re in” race for the Kentucky Derby. A 13 horse field has been assembled, headed by the Grade 1 winner, Timberlake. The Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes will likely give us at least one starter for the Kentucky Oaks. The Carousel Stakes and the Grade 3 Razorback Stakes also support this card. There are three Pick-5 opportunities and four Pick-4 wagers on this loaded program. First post is a half hour earlier, going off at 12:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Rebel Day starts off with an optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. A strong performance in this race could propel the race winner into the conversation for the Arkansas Derby on April 1st. This race is a tale of two trips for Imperial Gun (#4) and Footprint (#6). They ran in different races, but Imperial Gun could not have had a better trip when he handily broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve. Joel Rosario gave him a textbook ride, while slowing down the pace and finishing stronger than a nice horse (Linebacker), whose troubled trip gave his connections the confidence to try the Southwest Stakes last month. Tyler Gaffalione is a more than capable replacement for Rosario, who is not riding locally this afternoon. He’s a son of Gun Runner that cost his connections $375K in 2022, so expectations have always been high. However, he might have to work hard to seize the lead from Gewurztraminer (#1) and Maximus Magic (#3), both who could easily be sent for the front end in this race. He’s a player, but I really like Footprint in this spot. He was a mile best in his last race, where he had three spots of trouble, all of which factored in his failure to win last time out. He was sandwiched at the break, spotting the field several lengths while in last place. He made progress along the rail, but was forced to stop his momentum while in behind runners. He found a seam to run through, which got very tight, but he was able to get through, losing by a narrow head on the wire in a three horse photo. He stumbled a bit coming out of the gate in the Gun Runner Stakes two starts back, but his 4th place finish behind Track Phantom doesn’t look too shabby after seeing his last two races. I think the smaller field will be to his benefit and I think he is likely to get his second win today. Mikealicious (#2) is a deeper tickets play for me in this race. I think 20-1 (ML) is way too high of a number. He essentially paired his Beyers in his first two route races, so he could be a candidate to move forward in this spot. He adds Lasix for the first time after finishing 5th behind Carbone at this level on New Year’s Day. Maker gave him a little extra time after defecting from a race here on January 28th. That was the weekend after training was shut down for over a week here due to poor weather and frigid temperatures, so the three workouts since could aid in improving his overall fitness. I think the top two are better than he is right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take a decent step forward in this spot, and I think he’s a viable candidate for the bottom parts of the vertical exotics. 

Race 2: 

A dozen three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight. I think there’s a lot of ways to go in this race, but I am interested in some of the first-time starters, since a lot of the runners with experience have been a bit underwhelming. Stronsino (#2) is one of two runners that Steve Asmussen is sending out in this race. This one has been based at Sam Houston, so for Asmussen to send him here tells me that he is outperforming his expectations in the morning in Texas. He’s a son of Dialed In, who stood for $20K when this unraced mare was bred to him. Selling for over 10 times the stud fee at auction is certainly an encouraging sign as well. Offspring of this sire are winning 14% of the time when debuting over the last five years. I think more money will go toward the other Asmussen runner, Sir Otto (#1), who I don’t like as much. Mo El Grande (#6) has been working well over this oval for Randy Morse. He has won with 13% of his first time starters over the last five years, but that number balloons to 23% when we talk about first time starters at Oaklawn in that time span. The dam’s first two foals to race showed little on the racetrack, but Uncle Mo has been a 14% first out sire over the last five years. It’s also encouraging to see Cristian Torres take the mount at first asking. Excitable Boy (#7) didn’t run a great race last out on a sloppy course. He was battling for the lead in between runners, where he didn’t look particularly comfortable. He was making his first start since September at Hawthorne, which was a vast improvement from his debut there in August. He follows a similar pattern going into the race and he gets a rider upgrade to Rafael Bejarano. Run Jalen Run (#5) is the lukewarm morning line favorite, who is more of a deeper tickets cover play for me. He’s been consistent with his figures, but he hasn’t threatened to win at this open maiden special weight level yet. He had a favorable trip in the slop, staying inside until tipping out in the stretch. I prefer him underneath in this exotics, but if none of the first time starters show up, he’s likely to be in the mix. 

Race 3:

Three year old fillies get their turn to sprint six furlongs under maiden special weight conditions. It’s hard to ignore Motown Dynamic (#3) in this race, making her second career start for Steve Asmussen. She just missed in her debutante the Lecomte undercard at the Fair Grounds, losing by a head to Ghalia Princess. That one just ran a solid second in the Ruthless Stakes last weekend. Harbor Springs, who finished third in that race, came back to win for fine in a maiden special weight race in the slop on the Risen Star undercard last weekend at the Fair Grounds. She sold for $57K in 2021, so she’s been nurtured along since then before coming to the Asmussen barn in New Orleans. They sent out two expensive, well-meant fillies in that race, so the fact that thus filly ships here is encouraging. There’s a very interesting first time starter in this race, Havaha (#2), running for Michael Maker. She’s sired by Hansen, who hasn’t had a North American first time starter in over five years. As a sire, he was sold to South Korean interests in 2014, so we haven’t seen a ton from his runners in North America on the race course in the last several years. Her dam is Havisham, whose lone foal to race in North America was the multiple Grade 1 winner, Serengeti Empress. This is an interesting pairing as both the sire and dam were dominant winners on debut. In 2021, Skychai Racing paid $150K for this filly, whose workouts have been ramping up over the last month. I’m definitely interested to see what she does on the racetrack.

Race 4: 

A full field of 12 has been assembled for this N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, going six furlongs. There’s a decent amount of speed signed on for this race. I think W W Scout’s Honor (#10) has a solid chance in this race. He went off form at the beginning of the summer and was given a little time off. He came back firing in November at Fanduel Racing, and his first two local starts of the meet have been decent. He was down inside on hold last time out before tipping out and finishing third. I like that he’s drawn outside, which gives him a solid chance to stalk the pace and get first run on the deeper closers. Scott Becker’s horses have struggled at this meet, but he’s a high percentage trainer that wins a lot of races each year in Illinois. That may help keep the value high on this Illinois bred son of Ghaleeb. William Morey brings Unraptured (#8) Arkansas by way of Northern California. Most of his career races have come on synthetic, but his two dirt races at Pleasanton last year were solid. This barn wins a ton of races and they excel with new acquisitions, winning at a 27% clip over the last 14 months. He’s been working out on Tapeta at Turfway, so how he handles the local surface is a bit of a question mark, but this new face looks like he could be tough with this group. Efficiency (#4) is coming off a strong effort in the slop last out, where he almost pulled off a big upset when facing Jackman, who won his 4th straight race that day. He should get the right pace to close into, although a fast track might not be his preferred footing. I’ll include him on some tickets, and I could be more enticed to be a little more aggressive with him if his odds float up over his 12-1 morning line figure. Gunflash (#2) is a solid runner at this level, finishing a decent third two starts back. He might not have cared for the slop in his most recent effort, so I can forgive that performance. However, at 4-1, he feels better suited for use underneath in the vertical exotics than as a win candidate that offers significant value.

Race 5: 

Three year olds fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight race that ends the Early Pick-5 and begins the Mid-card Pick-5. There are some solid pedigrees in this race, so even though none of these ladies have turned in a “wow” performance on the track yet, there are several that are bred to be good ones. Tap the Champagne (#3) is the top pick for me in this race. She’s a Tapit filly making her third career start, and her first try at two turns. Her dam foaled a pair of graded stakes winners, including Danza, who won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on this oval in 2014. This filly was a solid third in her debut at Churchill Downs when sprinting, but she struggled to find her best stride on the Tapeta at Turfway in her most recent start. Pavel Matejka ships her in from Kentucky for a race at two turns on traditional dirt. She gets a solid post where she could be forwardly placed if she wants to be. I don’t see this as an exceptionally deep field, so I think she could be a tough customer here. I was a little curious with Off the Lam (#7) when she debuted here three weeks ago at this same distance. She was bumped hard out of the gate and was kept to the outside, going at least three wide on both turns. She was never involved in that race, which may have turned into a public workout after the first few strides. Her trainer, Fausto Gutierrez, has good numbers with second time starters, so she might not have been fully cranked for that one. She’s a half to the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Salutos Amigos. She certainly didn’t display any blazing speed in her last race, so hopefully the stamina influence from her sire, Curlin, will come through. Blinkers go off, which is an interesting move for a horse that didn’t show a ton of speed. However, she looked like she was really thrown when she couldn’t see the horse beside her slam into her right after the gate opened. Enigmatic (#8) had a rough go when drawing the 12 hole in a maiden special weight race on New Year’s Eve. Prat could do no better than taking her five wide on the first turn when he was trying to find a place for her to tuck in after the break. She was wide on the second turn as well and was never going to be a factor in that race where a Steve Asmussen trained daughter of Curlin took that field gate to wire. She ran the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field two starts back when she was third in a maiden allowance race at Churchill .The ability is there, but there’s a good chance that she’ll go into the starting gate at odds south of her 9-5 morning line figure, which represents poor value for me. She’s more of a B line play for me here. There’s some similarities to both Midsummer March (#9) and Who’s Ticket (#10) in this race. Both fillies cost over $400K at auction, and both fillies were less than stellar in their respective debuts. Midsummer March debuted here in the same race that Off the Lam is coming out of. She finished a length better than that filly while covering significantly less ground. Who’s Ticket is a daughter of the 2014 two year old champion filly, Take Charge Brandi. She chased a hot pace when debuting in a maiden special weight sprint at the Fair Grounds on New Year’s Day. Neither filly has a great post in this race, so both are going to need some help. I do think both are eligible to improve in this spot, so they’re both going to be deeper savers for me.

Race 6: 

The second of four Pick-4 wagers begins with a N1X allowance race for older horses going one mile. This is another race where the morning line favorite is a tough sell in the win column, Sun Thunder (#8) has finished second in his first two starts as a four year old, coming up short twice in N2L allowance company. He ran well at this distance to break his maiden last season, but he’s gone winless since. His most notable result since then was a second place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star last February. He doesn’t have much early speed, and he’s going to be asked to weave through another large field. Even though he;s run well in both of his one mile races on this course, the shorter stretch in this race doesn’t really work to his advantage. I like him underneath, and with the number of stretch-out sprinters in this race, I will cover with him, but I’m going to try to go price hunting with a few other runners on the A line. Mr. Keating (#4) is trying to go from breaking his maiden to clearing the N1X condition in his first try. This is almost always a decent sized class bump when facing winners for the first time, however there are a lot of factors that have encouraged me. He’s making his third start off the layoff after two sprints on off-tracks in his first two local starts. He ran well at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill in his second career start, so it’s not like he’s being asked to do something new for the first time. He’s been close in all four starts and Norm Casse has good numbers with horses going from sprints to routes. He loses his regular rider, as Ricardo Santana is riding Skelly on the Saudi Cup card today, but leading rider Cristian Torres is an excellent replacement. Infiltrator (#10) is an absolute wild card in this race. He was purchased by Willis Horton Racing for $220K in 2021. He debuted in a $40K maiden claiming race and was twice a voided claim when running for $10K and $20K tags. He ran big in both of those races despite the claim being voided. He went to the sidelines for seven months after a strong win at Churchill in May. He ran twice in $30K N3L claiming races here, but he was eligible to run with the waiver both times. He came up just short in December and cleared the N3L hurdle in the slop in his most recent effort. He moves up to open allowance company, which is a huge step up the class ladder for him. His Beyer Speed Figures are competitive and the fact that he’s continuing to run in protected races is encouraging. He tries two turns for the first time in his career, and he’s bred to handle the added distance. I’m definitely intrigued to see how he handles this race and at 20-1 (ML), I’d be willing to wager that he could find himself in the Winner’s Circle. Pledgeofallegiance (#7) is a seven year old horse in N1X company, which is another type of horse I don’t love betting on. However, He was sharp this summer in Kentucky and he was sharp two starts back at this level. I’m comfortable striking a line through his last race at this level. He was carried five wide into the first turn on a day where the inner part of the course was the place to be. He made a solid middle move down the backstretch, but faded on the second turn. While he was flat, he was kept to task by Bejarano, and while it looked like was going to fade out to the back of the field. He hung in there and battled to be 6th. I can see him coming back to run a better race here if he can work out a better trip.

Race 7:

State bred fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight race. While the morning line favors the Brad Cox first timer, Snow Flurry (#10), her works aren’t exactly blowing up the track in the morning. She’ll be bet because of her connections and pedigree, but I’d much rather have Haulin Ice (#4) in her second career start. Lindsay Schultz debuted this filly against males last month, when she could have entered her against a softer field of fillies and mares the next day. She broke well and she gave the heavy favorite all he could handle that day, finishing a very game second place at 14-1 odds. She faces the ladies today for a barn that does very well with second time starters. She’s had a pair of sharp works since that race and should be primed for a bigger effort today. Instead of backing up with the Cox filly, I’ll back up with the four year old first time starter, Petit Jean (#1). I don’t love the rail for her and her connections aren’t great with first time starters. However, her workouts have been solid in the mornings, suggesting that she has some ability. He was the fastest of 72 workers at four furlongs on 1/28. There could be some upside with her in here. 

Race 8, $150K Carousel Stakes:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in third stakes race for this condition at this meet this year. The top three finishers in the American Beauty Stakes last month did not run back in this race, nor did the winner of the Poinsettia Stakes in December. As a result, this race feels very much like a match race between Mucho Macho Girl (#7) and Zeitlos (#8), breaking side by side in the starting gate. While both horses make sense, I have to give the edge to Zeitlos, who was very good when coasting home in front in the slop three weeks ago. After ducking in and losing her jockey at the break in her debut, she has come back to finish in the money in her last eight starts. She cleared the N1X allowance condition at Churchill two starts ago and then came back to win a nice allowance race here. That was a conditional allowance and that field was better than the N2X allowance sprinters she was eligible to run against. I think she’s in very good form right now and is better on a fast dirt track than in the mud. I think she’ll sit a perfect trip and get across the finish line in front in her first career stakes try. Mucho Macho Girl is a half to Hoist the Gold, who won the Cigar Mile two starts ago. She wants to be out front, but she’s going to have competition from Backyard Money (#4) and Sarah Harper (#5), both posted inside of her. She certainly looked good at the Fair Grounds when clearing the N1X and N2X allowance conditions. However, those fields pale in comparison to some of the fields that Zeitlos has been up against. When they met head to head, Zeitlos finished well in front of Mucho Macho Girl. Mucho Macho Girl was making her first start off the layoff and she didn’t break well that day, both of which could have contributed to her poor performance. I think Zeitlos will be favored in this race, but I don’t think the odds disparity will be wide enough for me to really consider using her. She’s more of a saver for me in this spot, Instead, I’ll put I’m the Boss of Me (#9) on the B line. She was third, beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Zeitlos in that same allowance race in the slop three weeks ago. She’s following a similar racing pattern to last year, and she ran a monster race in her third start off the layoff. She wants to be forward as well, so I can see Francisco Arrieta keeping her in the four path and trying to make an early and wide bid to try to take it to the front-runners. I think Zeitlos will likely be able to run her down, but I do think at 10-1 (ML) or better, she offers significant value based upon her past history and the depth of the fields that she’s been facing. 

Race 9, The $400K Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes:

Three year old fillies are vying for a spot in the starting gate in the Kentucky Oaks in this 1 1/16 mile contest. Three last out stakes winners squaring off makes this a fun and intriguing renewal of this stakes race. For Band of Gold (#2) to take such a big jump in figures last time out, I have to wonder if that was more of a function of the sloppy course. I’m going to wager that she’ll bounce today, so she’s not going to be on my tickets, especially at shorter odds. Bard Cox was on the fence with running West Omaha (#6) in the Rachel Alexandra last weekend. He ultimately scratched her from that race, which was won impressively by her stablemate, Tarifa, in favor of this race. Cox has no other runners in here, which tells me that he likes this filly a lot. She drew off with authority when winning the Silverbulletday Stakes on Lecomte Day at the Fair Grounds. She can win on the front end, but she was very comfortable stalking a sensible pace last time out and making a strong push for the front. She hasn’t improved dramatically since her maiden win, but I still think she’s better than this bunch at the moment. Midshipman’s Dance (#10) makes her third career start in this race and her first at two turns. She was the winner of the Mockingbird Stakes here last month, coming from off the pace to score in that six furlong contest. Her sire was a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner as was her dam’s sire, Stevie Wonderboy. I think she can get the distance, but I do think she’ll need to get a trip, while drawing the outside post. 

Race 10, The $600K Grade 3 Razorback Stakes:

This 13 horse affair might be the most wide open race on the program. One important note that changes the complexion of this race is the morning line favorite, Ain’t Life Grand (#4), is planning to scratch out of this race in favor of an allowance race on tomorrow’s card. I’m going to want plenty of coverage in this race, where I made Seize the Night (#1) my lukewarm top pick. He ran a strong second in the Fifth Season Stakes here last month. The rail should allow him to save ground, sitting off what could be another strong pace. He has some strong races on this oval and he could sit the right trip while trying to win his first graded stakes race. Magic Tap (#8) for Asmussen always seems to run his race. He was last seen winning a N3L allowance race here last month, with a perfectly timed ride by Keith Asmussen. Steve Asmussen gives the reins to Tyler Gaffalione today, who is riding here for the first time this season. His worst two turn performance came in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby in a sea of slop at Parx. His other five routes have all been sharp, so I’d be surprised if he didn’t finish in the top three spots in this race. Notary (#11) is a six year old that has been in good form of late. His first two races at this meet have come on off tracks. He beat a nice N2X field last month, drawing off to win by five widening lengths. Armando Hernandez has this one very fit after claiming him for $50K at Hawthorne over the summer. This is a step up, but I like what I’ve seen from him so far. Promise Keeper (#10) is another runner that has improved since being claimed. He pulled off the upset in the Fifth Season Stakes here last month, taking that small field from gate to wire. He doesn’t have great early speed, and there are several quicker runners posted inside of him. He is capable of coming from off the pace and Diodoro may have helped him get back to his 2022 form, which would make him dangerous with this group. 

Race 11: The $1.250,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes:

As per usual with the Derby Points Races, I covered this race in greater detail on the Triple Crown Blog, with a horse by horse analysis of this field and some thoughts about my top three selections. I’ve linked that article below, but the quick and dirty version of my opinion revolves around what it’s going to take to beat the 6-5 morning line favorite, Timberlake (#7) in this spot. He’s making his first start of the year for Brad Cox and he’s far and away the most accomplished runner in this 13 horse field. While Cristian Torres rides this closure better than anyone on a day to day basis, I’m worried about him getting on this horse for the first time, when I feel he might be a little more keyed up than usual. This race has had a longshot winner who closed into a pace meltdown in the last two years and I’m going to wager that Common Defense (#3) will continue that trend. His trip in the Southwest was not great while competing on a sloppy track. He rallied impressively on a fast track to break his maiden on this oval and he gets Brian Hernandez, who was masterful in winning both three year old stakes races here three weeks ago. Dimatic (#6), coming off a solid maiden score for Steve Asmussen, is on the B line for me. I can see him working out a nice trip behind the early speed here. Just Steel (#11) is more of an underneath horse than a serious win candidate in my eyes, especially as the second choice. I might throw him on a deep saver ticket

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2024-kentucky-derby-the-grade-2-rebel-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 12:

The nightcap is a maiden special weight race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. It;s hard to envision Crushed It (#7) losing this race. He was under pressure every step of the way for his second career start and his first try at two turns. He was nailed on the wire by Goldbrick, who had the benefit of having a two turn race under his belt going into that race. They were both over eight lengths clear of any other in that field. If this son of Dialed In runs the same race that he did last out, I don’t see anyone in this field offering any real competition. I’d be comfortable being singled to him in the back end of the Late Pick-4 and Pick-5. My backup in this spot will be Sitka (#3). He chased a hot pace while breaking from the rail in his two turn debut. Common Defense rallied from off the pace to win that race. He makes his second career start for Steve Asmussen who has the shorter priced Give Me a Reason (#2) in this race as well. I do think he might have a brighter future on the turf, but I think the pace scenario in this race today will be more favorable and I expect him to be more fit today. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 62/267 (24.1%, $649.00, $2.43 ROI)