Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes – By Eric Solomon

In years past, this has been an important first stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in South Florida. Tiz the Law won this race in 2020 en route to a Belmont Stakes victory in a year where that was the first race in the Triple Crown. Barbaro and Go For Gin used this race to put them on the fast track to their wins in the Kentucky Derby. In 2021, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion, White Abarrio, burst onto the National scene when he won a strong edition of this race.  He would go on to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby toward the end of the Championship Meet. Last year, this race was not as strong, however, top three year olds would emerge from the later races in this prestigious race series.

This year, the Holy Bull will mark the return of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Fierceness. He’s drawn post 7 and should go into the starting gate as a massive favorite. 

Gulfstream Park Saturday 2/3/24, Race 12: The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes

40 Total Derby points (20/8/6/4/2)

1 – Hades (6-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): Joe Orseno sends out this undefeated Florida bred son of Awesome Slew. He’s done nothing wrong on the track ,breaking his maiden with $50K maiden claimers on debut. He came back in a state bred allowance race at seven furlongs where he was dominant, drawing off to win by eight lengths. His dam has produced a few decent runners, the most notable being Devious Dame, winner of the 2022 Astoria Stakes at Belmont. However, all three of her other foals have struggled mightily in their first route race. He’s taking a major step up in class, and while he deserves this shot, I think he’s going to be a better one turn horse. 

2 – Inveigled (12-1 ML, 250-1 Circa):  He’s the most experienced runner in this field, making his 6th career start today. He’s one of four runners in this field coming out of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes here, going one mile on New Year’s Day. That was an interesting six horse race where the top five finishers were fairly close to each other. He was 4th that day, surging late after experiencing some traffic issues. He’s versatile enough that he can win a race on the front end or come from off the pace. His effort in the James Lewis Stakes two starts back at Laurel was quite good, dueling on the front end and battling hard to narrowly lose to a horse that won his 5th consecutive race. The figures for everyone in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes came back slow, so it’s hard to make heads or tails of runners coming out of that race. I do like the steady progression from sprints, to longer one turn races, to a two turn route. There are some stamina influences in his pedigrees, so perhaps he could be a candidate to move forward in a race like this. 

3 – Otello (9-2 ML, 75-1 Circa): Christophe Clement trains this son of Curlin who might have the best chance to upset the heavy favorite in this spot. He came from off the pace to break his maiden in a one turn mile race at Aqueduct in November. He came back to win the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, where he showed a lot of grit and tenacity, because he didn’t have the best trip. He was in traffic for the better part of that race. He got through a narrow opening around mid-stretch and got up to score a narrow victory. While his speed figures regressed a bit, I do think that was more of a function of the race shape and trip that he had. He came close to pairing his Beyer Speed Figures and that effort caught the eye of some of the Futures Books, as his odds are currently sitting below 100-1 at Circa right now. His dam was a talented turf horse who was graded stakes placed at two and a graded stakes winner at three, four, and five years old. There’s speed on the outside in this race and with the position of the starting gate in the 1 1/16 mile dirt races at Gulfstream,  Fierceness is likely going to have to be ridden for speed from his outside draw. He should get a decent pace to close in to. I do think at this point in his career, he’s going to be second best in this spot. I also wonder if we’ll actually be able to get fair value on this horse, which to me, should be around 8-1 to 10-1. I think he’s going to be second choice in the wagering and too short of a price for me to try to beat the heavy favorite. However, he might be worth including on some deeper multi-race tickets, since most tickets are going to be singled to the two year old champ.

4 – Dancing Groom (30-1 ML): He’s the only runner in this field to have faced Fierceness and he did finish 10 lengths better than him in the Champagne back in October. Antonio Sano opted to wait for the Kentucky Jockey Club for his final start as a two year old. He struggled tremendously in that race, being under a ride after a half mile, but failing to keep up with the field. His works haven’t been extraordinary for a barn that struggles to win with runners off the layoff. His lone win came in an off the turf maiden special weight race at Aqueduct. I don’t see him being able to contend at this level. 

5 – No More Time (12-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): He was an impressive maiden winner here at Gulfstream in October, when making his second career. Jose D’Angelo waited for the Mucho Macho Man Stakes to bring him back. He was a little hard to handle coming out of the gate for Jose Ortiz. He settled down and came with a wide bid and flattened out late, finishing 5th that day. He’s worked well over at Palm Meadows, which could be a sign that he’ll be more fit for his first two turn race. While I think he has some more upside than some of his rivals, I think a win is an unlikely scenario for him today. 

6 – Domestic Product (8-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): After a dull debut on the Whitney undercard at Saratoga, Chad Brown brought him back in a nine furlong maiden race at Aqueduct in October where he broke his maiden. That effort was good enough to earn him a spot in the starting gate in the Remsen Stakes. The pace was aggressive that afternoon, and he was close to the early lead. He faltered late, finishing well behind Dornoch and Sierra Leone. Chad Brown never seriously targets this meet, but the fact that he’s only 2-42 at this current stand is pretty shocking. While this barn is ice cold, Brown’s runners still attract some wagering dollars on name recognition alone. That means I doubt he’ll be anywhere near the fair market value of about 25-1, which is probably the price that I’d need to think about taking a small chance on him. 

7 – Fierceness (3-5 ML, 13-1 Circa): All eyes are going to be on him as the winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile makes his three year old debut. He was brilliant in his debut, romping in the mud at Saratoga in August. He was heavily favored in the Champagne where he broke awkwardly and never picked up his feet, finishing 20 lengths behind Timberlake. As a result, he was drastically overlooked in the Breeders’ Cup, while breaking from an outside post in a race where there was a decent amount of early speed signed on. He broke well and pressed the early tempo from the outside and when Johnny V. asked the question, he responded brilliantly, drawing away to beat a very good field by 6 ¼ lengths. He earned a 105 Beyer for that effort, which is significantly higher than many recent winners of that race. If the good version of this colt shows up today, I don’t see anyone challenging him. His works at Palm Beach Downs are solid and Pletcher certainly knows how to get a horse ready off the layoff. Surprisingly, Pletcher, who has four wins in the Fountain of Youth and seven wins in the Florida Derby, has only won this race twice winning with Audible in 2018 and Algorithms in 2012 He’s going to be a very short price, but at this point in their careers, I think he’s considerably better than anyone in this race. 

8 – Sea Streak (20-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): I took notice when Eddie Owens opted to debut this son of Sea Wizard in the Smoke Glacken Stakes for two year olds at the end of the 2023 Monmouth Park meet. There were some state bred maiden special weight options available around the time of his debut, so the fact that was the spot for his first start said a lot about the confidence his trainer had in this runner. He put up a huge effort to be second to Book’em Danno, who was one of the better two year olds to race at Monmouth this summer. Sea Streak came back to break his maiden as a big favorite in his next start at Aqueduct. Both Inveigled and Otello finished in front of him in his last two tries, both of which came on this oval. While this gelding certainly has earned the shot to run in a race like this, horses sired by Sea Wizard have done very well in sprint races, but they haven’t been nearly as flashy at two turns. When you couple that with the fact that he’s drawn the outside post in a race that starts going into the first the turn, I think his chances of winning drastically decrease. 

The Verdict: 7-3-2

While this may be the best chance to try to take a shot against the two year old champion, I think there are several things that will have to go wrong for Fierceness to lose this race. The efforts that he put forth in his two wins are drastically better than any effort from any other runner in this field. He’s proven that he can win at two turns, while doing so from a less than advantageous post. He’s worked well while gearing up for his 2024 debut and his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile affords him a little more flexibility with the Derby points than most of the other serious contenders. 

If someone does get the better of him, I think the most likely one to do it would be Otello. He’s one of two unbeaten horses in this race, but his last effort is what stands out to me. He was in traffic for most of the race but once he was able to break free, he did make it to the front and hold off a few other runners late. His ability to come from off the pace should serve him well in a race where the pace should be honest. While the speed figures came back slow from his last race, I think he certainly could have put up a bigger number with a better trip. While I’m not certain he could run a race to beat the best that Fierceness has to offer, I do think the gap between him and the favorite isn’t as wide as it is with many of the other runners. 

Inveigled is one that makes some sense underneath in this race. I’m not likely going to use him in the multi-race wagers, assuming that Fierceness runs. However, he is a game and gritty horse that always shows up. He has speed to be on the front end, but he can also rate if the situation calls for it. Irad Ortiz has been so good at this meet, and his presence definitely elevates him a few lengths.

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.