Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – By Eric Solomon

The Arkansas Derby is one of two Grade 1 Derby Preps this weekend, and both races have runners that feel like they could be legitimate contenders on the first Saturday in May. Nine runners in this race will try to follow in the footsteps of Sunny’s Halo, American Pharoah and Smarty Jones by winning this race en route to the Kentucky Derby. Horses like Elocutionist, Temperence Hill, Tank’s Prospect, Pine Bluff, Victory Gallop, Afleet Alex, Curlin, and Creator, may not have had success at Churchill after winning this race, but they would go on to win at least one of the other Triple Crown races. Then there are horses like Mystik Dan, Super Saver, and Country House, which were able to turn in the money finishes here into Derby Gold. Bob Baffert is looking for his 6th win in this race with Cornucopian, who is making his second career start. He’ll meet another million dollar baby in Sandman, along with a pair of modestly bred, feel-good runners in Speed King and Coal Battle. Post time for this Grade 1 event is scheduled for 6:48 (CT).

Oaklawn Park, Saturday 3/29/25, Race 13: The G1 Arkansas Derby

200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)

1 – Brereton’s Baytown (30-1 ML): He went off at odds of 188-1 in the Rebel last month, where he passed some tired runners late to finish 8th, over 11 lengths behind Coal Battle. That was a career best speed figure for that effort, where the pace up front was red hot and many runners were fading fast down the stretch. I don’t see a scenario where he takes a big enough step forward to beat any of the runners that finished ahead of him here last month,

2 – First Division (20-1 ML): He just missed to Bestfriend Rocket in an optional claiming/N1X allowance on this oval four weeks ago. He was a close up third in his previous race at that level after scoring on debut in an optional maiden claiming race. He’s not nominated for the Triple Crown, so while I respect the fact that the connections are taking the swing with him in this race, I’m not sure he’s good enough right now to win it. I don’t think either of those allowance races were especially strong and while he was moving well late in both of those races, he had every chance to win both of them and came up a little bit short. I think he’s going to struggle with this group. 

3 – Publisher (6-1 ML): The lone maiden in the field keeps taking shots in these big races. I thought he was a contender last out in the Rebel after getting a miserable trip in the Southwest Stakes back at the end of January. The setup was there as they were flying in the early stages of the Rebel last time out. He settled near the back of the pack, behind Sandman. Things got a little tight at the top of the stretch, but he was basically chasing Sandman every step of the way, without gaining on him. That one was third as both Coal Battle and Madaket Road, the latter of which is running in Florida today, finished first and second that day. Prat sticks around and Asmussen adds blinkers for the first time, so there are some things to like. However, he’s still a maiden and despite running respectable races, none of them were winning races. That appears to be his downfall. While the blinkers could help his cause, I’m guessing a minor award is still his ceiling in this race. 

4 – Bestfriend Rocket (20-1 ML): I really liked him in the allowance race that he won last time out, and while he did escape with the win, there was nothing about that effort that made me think he was going to be good enough to beat a field like this today. I did like his wins at Laurel and I do think he could build off his last race, as this is his second start of the year and his second start with D. Wayne Lukas. Perhaps he’s one to think about should there be an off track today, but he’s another one that I think is going to be outclassed at the end of the day. 

5 – Speed King (15-1 ML): The winner of the Southwest Stakes showed some vulnerability when he was hung out four wide while trying to outsprint Baffert’s Madaket Road in the early stages last time out. Bejarano had no choice but to try to stalk the pace at that point and seemed to be cramping his style. Prior to that race, he had never not been on the lead in a race. Outsprinting a Baffert horse to the lead is never an easy task, but he will have inside position this time when he likely tries to gun for the lead in this race. He’s been working well in the mornings and there’s less filler in this race to help contribute to a strong early tempo. He has to break well, which has never been an issue for him. Bejarano has to be committed to securing the rail for him to have any chance in this race. The obvious downside to that move is that he could easily be triggering a duel with the stretch-out sprinter, Cornucopian. However, I don’t think he has a chance in hell if he concedes the rail to Johnny V. There’s also a chance that they want to try to get Cornucopian to rate, which definitely gives him a fighting chance alone the front end. I do think his Southwest win was legitimate. Things fell his way when several runners didn’t have the best beginnings that day. In my opinion, the Rebel didn’t discount his Southwest victory, but it did confirm that at this point in his career, he’s a “need the lead” type. I don’t love him in this race, but he’s the only horse outside of the top three where I do see a path to victory in this race. 

6 – Sandman (3-1 ML): I’ve sided with him as the top pick in both the Southwest and the Rebel. He ran huge in the Southwest despite a lousy trip which began with a harsh stumble out of the blocks. He was smoother from the gate in the Rebel, but he left himself a lot of work to do in spite of the fast pace in front of him. Torres was left with no choice but to swing him wide off the turn. He came rallying late, but he was still a little green in the stretch and he was not making up enough ground to catch either Coal Battle or Madaket Road, the latter of which was setting those fast fractions. Cristian Torres is off in favor of Jose Ortiz, who had four winners from eight starters in his trip here last month. He needs to take a step forward in this race and the added distance should only help him. He’s most likely going to be the second choice in this race, despite the fact that Coal Battle bested him in the Rebel. He was closer to the front end in both of his career wins, so I’m not sure if he’s the kind of horse that is going to come with that powerful late rally and be effective that way. I’d like to see Jose Ortiz keep him level with Coal Battle, who was in a much better position down the backstretch. If he can do that, I think that will give him the best chance. I do think 3-1 isn’t going to cut it for me though. I’d probably want him closer to 5-1, but I feel that’s unlikely. 

7 – Monet’s Magic (20-1 ML): He’s been waiting in the wings since an odd trip in the Southwest two months ago. Francisco Arrieta was riding him for the first time and he sensed a slow pace, especially after the rail was gifted to him. He’s not really a front-runner, but Arrieta contemplated trying to go with Speed King in the early stages. He backed off, content to track, but the two D. Wayne Lukas runners both went hard in the second quarter. Arrieta let them go and then began asking this Good Magic colt for his best. He was moving well, but he had to slam on the brakes, getting stuck behind one of the fading Lukas runners. He still finished with interest to get into 5th, and that effort definitely looks better with Tiztastic (3rd in the Southwest) winning the Louisiana Derby last weekend. What I don’t love is the fact that he’s only recorded two works since the Southwest. While that’s not the end all, be all, it does make me wonder if he’s fit enough to beat some of the top tier runners in this race. At the end of the day, he wouldn’t be a total shocker if he won, but he’s another runner that I feel has the minor placings as his ceiling. 

8 – Coal Battle (7-2 ML): This son of Coal Front remained undefeated on the dirt when he was handled brilliantly by Juan Vargas when winning the Rebel Stakes last month. Vargas has such a good rapport with this horse and he seems to know exactly where to put this one in order to run his best race. He was in a perfect spot, well off the leaders, but leading the second flight of runners last time out. He got first run on the back markers like Sandman and Publisher, who ran into minor trouble while trying to advance. Conversely, he led from gate to wire when winning the Smarty Jones two starts back. While I think it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be as effective as the distances are getting longer, he certainly has passed the eye test in each of his last three stakes wins. Whatever pace scenario percolates with Speed King and Cornucopian, I think he’ll be perfectly positioned once again. Lonnie Briley has him following a similar workout pattern in the morning as he did when he was coming up to the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to have to continue to progress, but I think he’s well-positioned to keep the streak rolling. He’s the top pick for me in this race. 

9 – Cornucopian (7-5 ML): While there’s been a lot of comparisons to Justify after this Into Mischief colt debuted here on the Southwest undercard, I think the comparisons to Taiba are a little more appropriate. Much like Taiba, he dominated his debut in a six furlong maiden special weight race and then one month later, he’s taking on Grade 1 competition. Taiba was transferred to Tim Yakteen about a week before the Santa Anita Derby, but Baffert had given him the foundation leading up to that race. He’s done the same with Cornucopian, with the only difference being that this colt has been shuttled back and forth from Santa Anita, whereas Taiba was allowed to stay home. Like Sandman his connections paid over a million dollars for this colt, so the expectations have been high from the beginning. I noted that he was working like a serious Baffert runner prior to that debut race and he looked the part on the track. He was sent off at 7-10 and Irad Ortiz had him running from the jump. Ortiz is in Florida today so Baffert will turn to John Velazquez, who he teamed up with when winning the Derby with Authentic in 2020. Much like Taiba, he could very well be the best horse in this field. I do think Speed King is going to be a thorn in his side. As I said above, I don’t think Bejarano has a chance of winning with that one if he concedes the rail and the lead. Velazquez is a great gate jockey and Baffert horses almost always break running. If he can get to the lead from the outside post, he may be too tough to run down. Velazquez could also opt to track the leader and make his move on the turn. That is always the dilemma with these lightly raced runners in Derby Points races. There’s no real wiggle room to experiment, but as a result, the Derby can get very tricky because they’re almost certain to have plenty of new experiences in a 20 horse field. I do think both riders are going to have to be aggressive, which could easily lead to a 46 and change half mile. While he essentially pulled off the same feat with Taiba, that one only had five rivals, and the biggest threat to him in that race went wrong. Baffert’s record with three year olds this time of year is unrivaled, but I’m struggling to take such a short price on this one in this race, knowing that he’s going to have to be extremely special to win this one. 

The Verdict: 8-6-5

At the end of the day, I think Coal Battle (#8) is going to have every opportunity to win this race. Juan Vargas has ridden him flawlessly in his five dirt starts and he’s going to see exactly what Johnny V. is going to do with Cornucopian (#9), as he’s breaking directly to his outside. The horse is very kind to ride and can win from any part of the track. I think he gets first run on Sandman (#6) once again and I believe he can hold him off. 

Sandman is starting at odds that are a little too low for my liking. I would have liked to have seen a better effort from him in the Rebel. Perhaps Casse wasn’t thrilled with Torres’ ride as he’s passing the torch to Jose Ortiz. I think this one has to be a little closer to the lead than he’s been in his last two starts in order to run his best race. Obviously, the bad start two back had a huge impact on his early position and the rapid pace created a large chasm between the front-runners and the back markers last time out. I haven’t given up on him, but I need better value than what I think we’re going to get. 

Inside speed can sometimes be very strong on these big race days. Speed King (#5) has not had advantageous post positions in his last two starts. It didn’t matter in the Southwest when other events in that race afforded him an easy first quarter. He showed his class when fending off some longshots that pushed the pace early and then finding more energy in the stretch to hold Sandman at bay. He gets a better draw and should be faster from the gate than the four rivals that are breaking to his inside. Bejarano has to take it to Cornucopian in the early stages in order to have a chance. It could be a situation where he’s dueling himself into submission, but I don’t think this horse wants to stalk the pace, at least at this point in his career. While I prefer others, I think he’s the longshot that has the best chance of upsetting this field. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.