The first of the 105 point Derby Prep Races is the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Stakes, and in recent years, this nine furlong test has become a prime prep race for the Triple Crown Series. Some of the recent winners in this race include Gun Runner, Girvin, War of Will, Mandaloun, Epicenter, Angel of Empire, and Sierra Leone. Lawyer Ron and Mucho Macho Man were also horses that won this race and went on to be Grade 1 winners. 13 runners led by the Grade 1 winner, East Avenue, will be vying for what is for all intents and purposes, a win and you’re in race, for the Kentucky Derby. Post time for the last race of a loaded day of racing in New Orleans is 6:30 (CT).
Fair Grounds, Saturday 2/15/24, Race 14: The G2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – American Promise (12-1 ML): D. Wayne Lukas sends out this Justify colt that broke his maiden two starts back at Oaklawn when making his 6th career start. Everything came together that day resulting in a monstrous win on a muddy track. His 95 Beyer Speed Figure for that win is tied for the tops in this race with East Avenue. He came back a month later in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn. The complexion of that race changed for him when he hesitated at the start and wound up second to last in the first few yards, behind only Sandman, who really botched the break. He was not comfortable running behind horses that day and he rushed up three wide to engage the race winner, Speed King, who was able to set a moderate first quarter. This colt turned up the pressure, but failed to sustain his bid that day, finishing 6th, beaten 6 ½ lengths. We see D. Wayne Lukas horses campaign runners like this. He races them often and they tend to get stronger as the season goes on. I think he’s capable of running a race that is better than his most recent effort. However, I think the presence of East Avenue is going to make it hard for him to run the race I think he wants to run right now. After the disastrous break in the Breeders’ Cup, I think Gaffalione is going to make sure East Avenue makes the lead. I suspect Keith Asmussen is going to be forced to make a decision to either force the issue to maintain his rail position, or run the risk of getting buried in behind runners in this large field. I like this horse but I think this is a difficult spot for him.
2 – Jonathan’s Way (4-1 ML): This son of Vekoma makes his three year old debut after a pair of okay efforts at two turns to end his two year old campaign. He was ultra-impressive in his maiden score after a disastrous break. He followed that effort up with a strong win in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs, going a one turn mile. He wasn’t great in the Breeders’ Cup where he finished 7th behind Citizen Bull. I didn’t love his effort to be second in the Kentucky Jockey Club when he was last seen on the track at the end of November. He didn’t have a great trip, as he was covered up most of the way. He was bumped around at the break, so perhaps that affected his positioning early. Despite the trouble, he was able to tip out at the top of the stretch and he had every chance to win that race. He took a little while to accelerate and finished a non-threatening second. He has been working well over this course, but from what I’ve seen from him in his last two starts, I’m wondering if he’d be more effective in longer, one-turn races. He’s listed as the second choice in the wagering on the morning line and he does get a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz, who has been a beast at this meet. I’m going to try to beat him though, operating under the assumption that he isn’t going to put his best foot forward at this distance.
3 – Vassimo (8-1 ML): While Todd Pletcher typically saves South Florida for his top tier Derby hopefuls, he’s been known to run horses here at the Fair Grounds. He’s a three time winner of this race, scoring with Discreetly Mine in 2010, El Padrino in 2012, and Intense Holiday in 2014. However, outside of Kingsbarns winning the Louisiana Derby here in 2023, his runners in these Derby Points races have been falling flat of late. Irad Ortiz comes to town to ride this undefeated son of Nyquist. He was a winner on debut when going a one turn mile at Gulfstream. As he’s been known to do, Pletcher shipped him to Tampa for an allowance race there in January. Ortiz was aboard him that day as well when he won easily as the 4-5 favorite. He makes his third career start and is a candidate to move forward in this race today. The dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf and dirt. Her better runners have been turf horses, so a surface switch might be in the cards for him down the road. This will be the acid test for him though, and with Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher involved, I don’t think we’re going to get his 8-1 morning line figure once the gates spring open.
4 – East Avenue (9-5 ML): The main attraction in this race is looking to make amends after a disastrous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He broke in a tangle from the rail and caught behind a wall of horses setting a moderate pace. Speed was good on that track at Del Mar, so I do think with a clean trip, things could have been different. Gaffalione had to tap on the brakes on the first turn while he was trying to secure a better position. His day was done at that point, never getting comfortable that day. I’m willing to completely toss that race, but I do wonder about him being able to get nine furlongs off the layoff today. He’s been working well over this course, and outside of American Promise, there really isn’t a ton of early speed signed on for this race. I do think Asmussen has to send his mount, so I expect the pace to at least be honest. If he’s the horse we think he is, he should be able to overcome that. I think the thing that I’m looking for is whether or not he can adapt when things don’t go exactly the way he wants them too. He was in front every step of the way in his first two starts. Presumably, the path to Louisville goes from here to the Blue Grass at Keeneland at the beginning of April. After using him as my primary horse in the Breeders’ Cup, I’m not ready to give up on him by any means. He’s clearly the one to beat, but this is a spot where he could be vulnerable. He’s going to be on all of my multi-race wagers, but there could be value elsewhere in this race.
5 – Chunk of Gold (30-1 ML): The Turfway invader comes here after a second place finish in the Leonatus Stakes last month. I’m a bit curious as to why they’d ship him here, knowing that there is a Derby Points race at Turfway next weekend. Perhaps it’s because he’s a full brother to the filly, Band of Gold, who was the upset winner of the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn last year. He was a strong maiden winner in a restricted maiden special weight at Turfway in December. He ran a credible race when facing winners for the first time in stakes company there. He was moving well late, despite having a slow pace established in front of him. He’s been working well over the synthetic strip at Turfway, so he appears to be doing well. This is a big step up in class though and it’s a question mark how he’s going to handle the dirt. It is worth mentioning that the pace in the Lecomte Stakes here last month absolutely collapsed and the runners in that race were struggling to get home. That was over a sloppy course on a cool and wet day. Right now, the forecast is sunny and 81 degrees in New Orleans, so it’s fair to expect a completely different kind of racetrack. Going nine furlongs at this time of year, especially when some of the main contenders are making their first start in a few months, it’s not out of the question to assume the pace melts down again. While I’m going to be cautious with how much I use him, I do see a scenario where he could be rolling into the picture late at a huge number. If he’s sitting there at 40-1 or better, I’d likely roll the dice and put a few dollars to win on him.
6 – Seattle Road (30-1 ML): He had the misfortune of trying to navigate a trip from Post 13 in the Lecomte Stakes in his most recent start. Marcelino Pedroza had him settle at the back of the pack early on. He came with a mild rally, but was never really gaining on the contender.s He’s had five chances so far and he hasn’t shown enough in those races to make me think that he’s capable of running a race good enough to beat this group.
7 – Septarian (12-1 ML): Chad Brown won this race last year with Sierra Leone, but he’s brought a much more modest runner to New Orleans this year. This Protonico gelding started his career at Charles Town in September where he was a winner going 4 ½ furlongs. He went to Laurel where he was an easy winner in a six furlong allowance race there. He caught the eye of Resolute Racing, who privately purchased him from Javier Contreras, and moved him into Brown’s barn. He made his stakes debut in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes going a one turn mile at Gulfstream last month. He ran an even third that afternoon, finishing behind both Guns Loaded and Treaty of Rome. It’s not a glowing endorsement that both of those horses ran terribly in the Holy Bull and the Sam F. Davis Stakes when they were last seen on the track. It is interesting to see Flavien Prat riding, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to be good enough to win this race.
8 – Giocoso (20-1 ML): This son of Not This Time started six times as a two year old, four of which came on the turf. Both dirt starts came at Churchill and neither were remarkable. He finished third in the Iroquois in September, seven lengths behind Jonathan’s Way. He was a beaten favorite in the Bourbon Stakes on the grass at Keeneland in October, in what was not the strongest running of that race. He ran well enough to clear the N2L allowance condition in his last start of the 2024 season. Keith Desormeaux is rolling the dice, trying him on the dirt once more. I think he’s going to continue to be more effective on the turf.
9 – Built (5-1 ML): I’m interested to see what kind of performance we’re going to get from this son of Hard Spun. He was excellent when winning the Gun Runner Stakes here in December. However, he led every step of the way while setting a slow pace against a small field. His Beyer Figure came back strong though. He was the second choice when drawing post 12 in the Lecomte Stakes. I thought Jareth Loveberry gave him a great ride under the circumstances in that race. He was going to be five wide, but he was able to tuck in behind runners to get to the two path before they worked their way up the backstretch. He found the rail and settled behind runners. He backpedaled a little bit, perhaps in response to taking a lot of mud to the face. He tipped out to the three path for the stretch drive and grinded home, losing narrowly to Disco Time, who came with a wide, off the pace run to get up in time. While Disco Time definitely covered more ground, Built was closer to a strong pace. The final time and the speed figures came back light from that race, but I’m going to chalk that up to track conditions. I think this colt was impressive that day, and I think that was an educational race. I don’t have concerns about him at this distance, and I think he’s going to be able to get a more favorable stalking trip on a fast surface today. His light Beyer Figure from last time out might drive his price up over his 5-1 morning line number, especially with some longer priced runners in this field for Pletcher and Brown. I think he’s dangerous in this spot. He’s the top pick for me.
10 – Render Judgment (12-1 ML): The human connections that won the Derby with Mystik Dan team up to send out this Blame colt for 5th time today. He pretty much lost all chance of winning at the break in the Gun Runner, which was part of the reason that Built was able to establish such an easy lead in the first quarter. He was a distant third that afternoon. He’s had four works since that race, missing a little time in between with a minor issue that led to him scratching from the Southwest Stakes. While I liked his maiden breaking score three starts ago, I expected him to be more competitive in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes two starts ago and he simply wasn’t good enough. I haven’t seen enough forward progress and I don’t love that minor snafu that kept him from competing in Arkansas. He feels like the kind of horse that might have been better served taking a shot in a N1X allowance race before taking a swing later in the prep season. I’m passing on him here.
11 – Jolly Samurai (30-1 ML): He finished 5th in the Remington Springboard Mile two starts ago and with the top two finishers winning both Derby Points Races at Oaklawn in January, that effort looks a little better than it might have otherwise. He ran here in the slop in the Lecomte and he was a non-factor on that sloppy course, finishing 9th. Even if he hated that course, he doesn’t have a race on his resume that would be close to competitive with this group. I’m not interested in him here.
12 – Vamos Carlitos (30-1 ML): He was claimed for $40K two starts ago when he won his second career start. He was a winner in an off the turf race at Horseshoe Indianapolis in September. He wasn’t interested in the turf in start number two, but it was odd to see him entered for a tag in a dirt race after that. There were plenty of N1X options around that time at Churchill, so clearly this one was not a barn favorite for Jonathan Thomas and Robert LaPenta. Lasix was added for his last start, which was a nice second place finish in allowance company here last month. Lasix will not be administered today, which is a concern. He finished ahead of Authentic Gallop, who came back to win a decent allowance race at Oaklawn last weekend. I’m not sold on him at this level though.
13 – Magnitude (12-1): Steve Asmussen sends out this son of Not This Time in hopes of a better showing that what we saw from him in the Lecomte. He was no match for Built two back in the Gun Runner. He cleared the N1X condition three starts ago, so I get why they keep trying in these stakes races. However, Built has had his number twice and that one has a better post in this race. I think he’ll run a better race, but I’m not convinced that will be enough to hit the board in this race.
The Verdict: 9-4-5
East Avenue is the class of this field and I do think if he brings his A game today, he’s going to win this race. However, I also think that it’s asking a lot to make his first start at nine furlongs while coming off a 3 ½ month layoff. I’m also a little concerned that American Promise could soften him up on the front end. I’ll be using him, but I’m going to make Built the top pick in this race. I’m going to wager that the low speed figures in the Lecomte were a function of the sloppy and sealed track. He took a lot of mud to the face and it looked like for a second he was going to plummet through the field, but he dug in gamely and nearly got the win. He ran a great race when he had everything his own way in the Gun Runner. I think he proved he is adaptable to various scenarios that could develop. I see him stalking the front-runners and making a run at them in the stretch. His current fitness level might be the difference maker here.
I think Chunk of Gold is a crazy longshot that might be able to sneak into the exotics in this race. He’s a definite wild card, having never started on the dirt. He’s a blue collar horse that only sold for $2,500 at auction in 2023. However, his full sister was a winner in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn last year. His two career races at Turfway were solid. He didn’t have a great trip in the Leonatus Stakes last time out, getting shuffled to the back of the pack in the early stages. It took him a while to get free, but once he did, he closed powerfully. It remains to be seen if he can run that kind of race on the dirt at this level, but I think he has more upside than any of the other runners starting with double digit odds on the morning line.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
