A competitive field of 13 has been assembled for the only 200 point Derby Prep Race on a synthetic surface. Two years ago, Two Phil’s was excellent when winning this race and he parlayed that effort into a big performance on the biggest stage in racing when he finished a game second behind Mage. Rich Strike was third in this race in 2021, prior to his improbable victory in the Kentucky Derby last year. In fact, he ran in all three legs of their three year old series in 2022. Prior to that, Animal Kingdom was the only horse to win the Derby after winning this race since Turfway has been running it on a synthetic course. In 1992, Lil E. Tee became the first winner of this race to also capture the Run for the Roses.. Post time for the Jeff Ruby Steaks is scheduled for 6:25 (ET).
Turfway Park, Saturday 3/22/25, Race 12: The G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Calling Card (20-1 ML): Mike Maker toyed with the idea of running him back in the Virginia Derby last weekend,which was two weeks after faltering in the Gotham. He has one really good race, which was his maiden breaking effort at Aqueduct when facing state bred maiden special weight types. Maker tried him on the turf to start his career, so he could be a candidate to move forward on synthetic. He’s the first runner sired by Complexity to compete in a route race on synthetic. His dam was 0-1 on a synthetic course and her only offspring to race on the all-weather track was 0-2 in two tries at Presque Isle. I get having Derby Fever, but at this point, I think he should be focusing on the lucrative stakes that are coming down the pike for three year old New York breds on the NYRA Circuit.
2 – Charlie’s To Blame (15-1 ML): The winner of the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream last out, ships to town to take a swing in an extremely rich race on the synthetic surface. He wants to be on the lead, which could complicate matters for California Burrito (#3), who breaks in the stall next door. His local work was sharp and Juan Hernandez, who rode him to break his maiden at Del Mar going one mile on the turf, will be in town today to ride him for Peter Eurton. His sire Blame, gets 16% winners in synthetic route races. The dam has foaled four other horses, none of which have competed on a synthetic course. One other runner from her was a winner on the turf. He has the pole position of the three primary speed horses in this race, but I’m not how he’s going to respond if he’s under pressure the entire way.
3 – California Burrito (7-2 ML): He’s been able to take advantage of some moderate pace scenarios in his last two starts. He was an easy N1X winner here two back and he broke through when winning the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes in his most recent start. He clearly likes the course, but assuming this field stays intact, I think he’s going to have significant pace pressure to his inside and outside. His best hope here is if neither Charlie’s to Blame or Innovator looks content to be running on this surface. He’s one of three horses that seem to want the lead. While neither of the other two have experience on this course, I do fear that he’s going to be in the middle of three horses that are fighting for the lead. He’s very good, but he’ll need to show me that he can handle some adversity. He ran quality races on the dirt when coming from a little farther off the pace, so Irving Moncada may be content to let him settle off the pace. As a son of Army Mule, I do wonder if the nine furlong distance might be a tad too far for him. Army Mule does get 16% winners with horses routing on synthetic. Of those 64 starters in that sample size, eight have competed at nine furlongs or longer and none have won. On the flip side, one horse in responsible for five of those starts and all five came in stakes company on the Tapeta at Woodbine and some of those efforts were not bad. I have some mixed feelings about him, but I did like how he handled his business in the Battaglia. He’s a contender in this race.
4 – Final Gambit (6-1 ML): Obviously, seeing Brad Cox and Juddmonte teaming up will draw some public wagering attention, but the 6-1 morning line figure feels like a crazy low number for this Not This Time colt. He has three starts and finally broke through in a maiden special weight race here last time out. Luan Machado has been in the saddle in his last two tries and he’ll get the return call today. He stalked a slow pace two back, but he’s been effective when coming from the back of the pack. He passed all ten runners last time out en route to his first visit to the Winner’s Circle. His races are slow though and I’m not sure he can move forward enough to contend at this level right now.
5 – Flying Mohawk (15-1 ML): Whit Beckman brings this Karakontie colt to town after two straight wins on the turf. He ended his 2024 campaign with a maiden breaking score at Churchill. He came back at the end of January with a victorious performance in N1X allowance company at the Fair Grounds. He’s been very good in both wins, drawing off to win by open lengths in both tries. The surface is going to be the big question mark for him. Karakontie is another sire that has sired 16% winners with his horses routing on synthetic. He’s the only other runner to start from this dam. I do like how he’s won his last two races and I think in his second start off the layoff, he might be eligible to take a step forward. Joseph Ramos gets the call for the first time and what figures to be one of the biggest mounts of his career up to this point. He’s ridden well at this meet, winning with 18% of his starters. He could be a longshot flying under the radar in this spot.
6 – Baby Max (5-1 ML): This son of Maximus Mischief won the Leonatus Stakes here back in January. He beat Chunk of Gold that day and that colt went on to run second in the Risen Star and he’s a contender in the Louisiana Derby this afternoon. He went off as the favorite in the Battaglia last out where he lost by a half length to California Burrito. That was a big effort, so it’s interesting to see Kelsey Danner adding blinkers for the first time today. He’s a modest horse, costing only $20K at the Fasig-Tipton October Sale in 2023. He’s already earned nine times that figure in his five career starts. He’s definitely an overachiever, but the fields are getting tougher. Abel Cedillo was aboard in the Leonatus, but Luis Saez got the mount last out. Saez is in New Orleans today, so it’s back to Cedillo in the irons. If he’s content to sit a pocket trip in this race, he may get first run on some of the closers. If the odds disparity widens between him and California Burrito, there may be some value with him here as well. He’s another one with a shot in this race.
7 – Giocoso (30-1 ML): The second son of Not This Time in this field will try the synthetic for the first time. His four turf races are definitely better than his three dirt starts. He struggled to find a comfortable spot in the Risen Star last out when making his first start off the layoff. He faded badly that day, finishing last of the 12. He reboots here in a rich graded stakes race on synthetic. The dam foaled a runner that was 1-3 on the Tapeta at Presque Isle, scoring in a lower level race. While he prefers the turf and could move up on synthetic, he wasn’t great against good competition as a two year old, so I’m not sure how high his ceiling is for this race.
8 – Innovator (15-1 ML): He’s another runner trying a synthetic course for the first time. D. Wayne Lukas qualified American Promise for the Derby last weekend and he’s hoping to do the same with Caldera at the Fair Grounds and this colt here today. He faced quality opposition in maiden races, so it took him a while to break through. He was impressive in his maiden breaking win at Oaklawn three starts back though. His two starts in Derby Prep races have not been pretty. He caught a d course in the Lecomte and was trudging home with the rest of the group. He chased a hot pace in the Rebel and wilted, finishing second to last in that contest. Nik Juarez is named to ride, but he’s also named to ride at Oaklawn today. The horse is on the grounds at Turfway, so assuming he’s fit, he should be running. Whether Juarez is in the irons or not is another story. Early speed is his main weapon and he’s drawn outside of two other runners that have the same tactics. I think he’s going to be the first to blink in this one.
9 – Poster (3-1 ML): The morning line favorite in this race won the Remsen on the dirt at this distance as a two year old, completing an undefeated, three race campaign. His first two starts came on the turf in Kentucky. He stalked the pace in those races, but went from last to first in a compact Remsen field. I’m not sure that was the strongest running of that race though. He made his three year old debut in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. He was last early in that one on a course where every route race was won in gate to wire fashion. To get within 2 ½ lengths of John Hancock felt like an accomplishment. His figures are light and he’s trying something new for the first time. None of those ingredients makes for a good favorite to bet on. Munnings is a fine sire for horses on the synthetic course, getting 16% winners in route races. The dam has foaled one horse to try a synthetic track and that runner was 0-2 in both starts on this oval. He has four workouts on this course since the Sam F. Davis, so this feels like it has been the plan. I don’t love him as the favorite and probably would want odds in upward of 5-1 to play him in this spot.
10 – Maximum Promise (5-1 ML): Ken McPeek has this colt returning for his third start off the layoff today. He ran third in the Battaglia where the pace was moderate. He was run into at the break and relegated to last in his first try on the Tapeta. He took a lot of kick back to the face, but he persevered and ran on late to get into third. His maiden win this summer at Ellis was impressive, going gate to wire in a one mile race, winning by over 14 lengths. He ran okay in the Lecomte despite the low figures. Most of the runners that have come back from that race have improved their figures in the next start, so I’ll chalk up that lower number to deteriorating track conditions. He has another wide draw so it’ll be up to Frankie Dettori to work out a trip. The presence of Dettori has this one installed at 5-1 on the morning line, which feels low. Baby Max was definitely better than him in that race, despite the tough trip, and that one is starting at the same number. At longer odds, I could be sold on him in this race.
11 – Curvino (20-1 ML): This son of Vino Rosso feels like he’s making a Hail Mary by entering this race. He’s shown minimal improvement with his speed figures over his nine career starts. He’s finished in the money in a few allowance races at Oaklawn since breaking his maiden in a restricted $100K maiden claiming spot, where he was up for purchase. Vino Rosso does has the best winning percentage of all of the sires in this race, scoring with 18% in route races on synthetic. However, there’s not much to go on here. I’m looking elsewhere in this spot.
12 – He’s Not Joking (15-1 ML): One of the more interesting longshots in this race is a Grade 3 winner at two turns on the synthetic at Woodbine. He scored easily in the Grey Stakes back in October for Josie Carroll and he broke his maiden on that surface as well. He ended his two year old season in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill where he had some issues, but was never a factor. He came back in the Holy Bull where he was ignored at the windows and he ran the way you’d expect a 27-1 longshot to run. He’s back on the synthetic and he had a nice work over this course last week in preparation for this race. Rafael Hernandez has been wintering here, winning 16% of his local races. He wins a ton of races while riding for some of the best trainers at Woodbine. He’ll need to call on all of his talents to work out a trip from Post 12. However, I think the pace scenario does suit him in this spot. I think he’s a live longshot in this race.
13 – (AE) Candytown (20-1 ML): This Todd Pletcher maiden was excluded from the body of the field. He’s been working well at Palm Beach Downs in the morning, but this feels like a big ask for a horse that was unable to break his maiden at Tampa. If he runs, I’m expecting John Velazquez to retain his mount on Poster. I’m not expecting him to compete, but he’s not for me if he does.
The Verdict: 12-5-6
I’m not in love with the favorites in this race, so assuming the course is playing fairly and closers are able to get home, I’m going to look for some prices, while backing up with some of shorter price runners in some of the multi-race wagers. He’s Not Joking (#12) is a graded stakes winner on Tapeta at Woodbine. His two dirt starts after that race left little to be desired, but I liked the way he looked in Canada and I think he’s a candidate to move forward in his second start of the season. I’m hopeful that Rafael Hernandez can work out the right trip.
Flying Mohawk (#5) tries the Tapeta for the first time, so there is definitely some risk involved. I do love how he won his last two starts on the turf though. He’s also making his second start of the season. He’s based at the Fair Grounds so the fact that he’s making the trip here now tells me that his connections are believers in his ability. At 15-1 or better, I think he’s a live longshot.
Baby Max (#6) at 5-1 feels like the right number from the horses coming out of the Battaglia. He poked his head in front of California Burrito (#3) in that race, but he lost the stretch battle after that one was able to carve out slow fractions on the lead. I think the pace scenario should be different in this race and he might have a better shot to pass his rival.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
