The stakes for the Derby are raised since, as of today, Derby Prep races start having more value. 42 Derby Points are up for grabs with this Grade 3 contest. The first and third place finishers of the Gun Runner Stakes here last month are back as the two shortest prices on the morning line. They’ll be facing several well-meant colts looking to advance themselves on the Derby Trail. This wide-open contest will be the nightcap under the lights in New Orleans on Saturday, slated for a 6:00 PM (CST) dispatch.
Fair Grounds Race 13: The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes (Post Time: 6:00 PM CST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 – Quality Mischief (10-1 ML): Brad Cox has been very tough in these early Derby Points races over the last few years, and while he’s still looking for a breakout contender from his Southern string, he has no shortage of well-bred three year olds that are looking to make their mark. He has a trio of runners slated to compete in this race, starting with this Into Mischief colt who finished 4th, beaten only a length at long odds in the Gun Runner Stakes on this course last month. That race was a big step forward for this colt who narrowly broke his maiden in an off the turf maiden special weight race at Horseshoe Indy at the end of October. That was his first start on the dirt and it wasn’t a particularly remarkable effort from a speed figure, class, or visual standpoint. The morning line oddsmaker assigned him 10-1 odds that day and despite two scratches, the public let him go into the starting gate at 25-1. He lunged a bit at the start and wound up going three wide on both turns, covering more ground than the top three finishers. He drifted a bit in the stretch, but was still grinding home in a generally slow final quarter. I’d say he definitely outran those odds that day, so there’s reason to believe that he can compete with this group this afternoon. He’s worked twice since that race and could be a horse that could improve in his third try on the dirt. I see him as a contender in this race, especially while getting post relief while breaking from the rail.
2 – Carson Street (8-1 ML): He’s one of three horses that broke his maiden at this meet while receiving raceday Lasix, which is an interesting subplot in this race. He faced good horses in maiden races in Kentucky, losing to next out Street Sense winner, Incredibolt, three starts ago and then losing to Mesquite two back. He ran in a race at the beginning of December which was originally carded for the turf, but was transferred to the main track. He had a huge class edge in that spot and he ran the way you’d want a 1-2 favorite to run, winning by 11+ lengths on the wire over a sloppy course. He comes back in stakes company and he should be back on a fast course today. He will not have Lasix this afternoon while facing a much tougher group. Ben Curtis has ridden a decent amount for Brendan Walsh at this meet, and he lands on Walsh’s other entrant, Stop the Car. I’ll assume that he had the choice and still opted to go in that direction, despite being in the saddle for this colt’s dominating win last out. I’m looking in other directions here.
3 – Crown the Buckeye (4-1 ML): Despite fading in deep stretch in the Gun Runner Stakes last month, this Ohio bred was installed as the lukewarm 4-1 morning line favorite in this Grade 3 contest. He was the second choice at post time in the Gun Runner and he ran a solid race. However, my concern with him that afternoon was that there could be some distance limitations with his pedigree (Yaupon out of an Unbridled’s Song mare). He did get a bit leg weary in the late stages of that six horse race, as both Chip Honcho and Liberty National collared him late, despite opening up at the top of the stretch. The speed figures suggest that race was below average in comparison to other Derby Points Races. Jareth Loveberry put him on the lead that day, which was a different strategy than the one that was employed when he scored easily in the Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes at this distance two starts ago at Mahoning Valley. Perhaps that wasn’t a part of the plan, as Loveberry has been taken off and Ricardo Santana is named to ride. Despite not riding here yet during this meet, Santana has won his share of races at the Fair Grounds. He has been in a slump lately while riding at Oaklawn, winning only twice with 61 starters there thus far, and only winning 6% of his race in the last 90 days. His mount here is facing a larger field today and there are three others that could be forwardly placed with him early on. I’ll use him underneath, but I’m suspicious of his chances as a win candidate.
4 – Exosome (20-1 ML): While Loveberry lost his spot on the favorite, he has picked up the mount on the longest shot on the board in this race. After a dismal debut, he showed some toughness while breaking his maiden at Keeneland in an off the turf maiden special weight contest. He was pinched back shortly after the start, but that allowed him to tuck in and save every inch of ground going into the first turn. He stayed inside and tipped out into the four path at the top of the stretch. He battled with the Prince of Light, and he outfinished him to the wire. While most of the runners in that race have had at least one start since that race, all of them are still maidens, and several of them seem to be better on the turf. He’s another colt that is taking a large step forward in this race and I’m not convinced he’s going to thrive at this level at this time.
5 – Golden Tempo (8-1 ML): The first of two runners from the Cherie DeVaux barn is one two horses in this field that graduated out of a maiden race on Gun Runner Day here last month. He broke at the back of the pack and was content to settle well off the pace. He came with a bold bid, while going quite wide. He ran down a leader that had a sizable lead in the final furlong, while galloping out strongly. Being sired by Curlin out of a Bernardini mare, he’s clearly bred to go two turns. So, the fact that he was able to win when going six furlongs is a testament to his quality. DeVaux has excellent numbers with her horses going from sprints to routes, winning 21% of the time with her second time starters in this scenario over the last five years. The dam was a Grade 3 winner at nine furlongs on dirt and Grade 1 placed in the 2016 Odgen Phipps. The big question mark for me revolves around how he’ll handle competing without having raceday Lasix. He was able to have Lasix for his maiden score, so that, along with the two turn trip, are two unknowns that will be answered here. Jose Ortiz likely had the choice between this colt and Mesquite, and he opted to stay here. He rides this course extremely well, as he started this week with a 30% winning percentage here at the Fair Grounds. I suspect he’ll be bet down from his 8-1 morning line figure, but I’d be comfortable playing him at 6-1 or higher.
6 – Thunder Buck (6-1 ML): He’s the third runner coming off a maiden breaking score at the Fair Grounds during this meet. Marcus Hersh reported that the plan is for this colt to compete in this spot, despite being cross-entered in an allowance race earlier in the day. His winning effort matched the Beyer Figure for Chip Honcho who won the Gun Runner 30 minutes before his race. Chip Honcho was better than him when he debuted at seven furlongs at Keeneland, but he’s definitely a horse that figured to improve at two turns. He was wide early on in that maiden race and he tipped out to the five path at the top of the stretch to make his winning move on the leaders that day. The dam was a Grade 3 winner as a two year old, but her first two foals to make it to the track were nothing spectacular. However, those horses were sired by Sharp Azteca and Hightail, whereas this colt was sired by Gun Runner, who is one of the best North American sires of the first quarter of this century. With Oaklawn being dark for the next few weeks, Luis Saez was readily available to come to town to ride this colt again. He’s another runner that is going to have to show that he can be effective without receiving Lasix, but he’s a serious contender in this spot if he can.
7 – Mesquite (8-1 ML): Cherie DeVaux sends out this recent maiden breaker, who defected from the Gun Runner Stakes last month after developing a minor illness. Since then, he’s had two respectable works over this course, so he appears to be no worse for wear moving forward. He faced a good field in a fast maiden allowance race at Keeneland back in October. He stretched out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles for his next start at Churchill where he drew an inside post. He was last early on after some crowding at the break forced him to back of the pack. He came with a wide, prolonged rally, and had to overcome Carson Street forcing him wider on the turn. He was a bit green in the stretch, but she finished nicely once switching leads. Carson Street ended up third in that race and he came back to decimate a maiden allowance field at the Fair Grounds in a race that was originally scheduled to be run on the turf. He’s the third horse to race from an unraced Mineshaft mare. All three of her foals have been winners, but he’s the first to score at two turns. He’s faced strong maiden fields in two tries and I think he has a higher ceiling than some of the other horses in here. With Ortiz riding DeVaux’s other colt, getting Flavien Prat to fill in is as good of a replacement as there can be right now.
8 – White Tiger (8-1 ML): The third runner from the Cox barn also is coming off a two turn maiden score in his last start. He beat a solid field in at Churchill to graduate at the end of October. Prior to that, he put up a big figure in his debut when going seven furlongs, finishing seven lengths behind Englishman, who was very speedy. He was the 1-4 favorite when running against seven maidens last time out. He stumbled out of the gate, but recovered to take the lead as they ran into the first turn. He set a slow tempo and was in hand while his rivals were all out going into the turn. He was on the wrong lead while engaged in battle, but once he straightened out, he was able to repel the challenge of his rival and win by a ½ length late. He galloped out way in front of his rivals and was full of energy when Irad Ortiz tried to bring him to the Winner’s Circle. Horses that have everything their own way on the lead are tough to bet back in spots where they’re unlikely to get the same kind of trip. While everything that I saw after the race would be considered positive, the slower speed figure at least makes me wonder if he’s going to be more effective in one turn races. His full sisters were both more effective at one turn, and the dam was a Grade 2 winning sprinter as a two year old. I think Cox has a strong hand in this race, but I do have more questions about him than I do his stablemates.
9 – Ocelli (12-1 ML): Marcus Hersh, via Twitter, reported that the plan is for this colt to run in the maiden special weight race earlier in the card as opposed to this race, which probably makes the most sense at this point in time. I’m operating under the assumption that he will not be competing, but he wouldn’t be on my tickets if the connections decide to alter course. While he didn’t have the best trip when finishing second to Thunder Buck, he had every opportunity to tip out and make a serious run at the winner, and he failed to do so. I think continuing his education in the maiden ranks is what’s likely best for the horse.
10 – Stop the Car (8-1 ML): Gary and Mary West bred this son of Maximum Security, but he was not one that they opted to keep in their barn this year, putting him up for auction at the OBS Sale last April. Trade Winds Farm put up $110K to purchase him and that decision has been validated so far as he is 2-2 coming into this race. He debuted at the end of the Keeneland meet, beating a $150K maiden claiming field when sprinting six furlongs. He was well back and out of the picture at the top of the stretch. He switched off the rail and came over the top with a powerful rally to get up in time. Brendan Walsh brought him back in an optional claiming/N1X allowance spot at Churchill where he was protected. He faced It’s Our Time in that race, who was the betting favorite when he finished 4th in the Champagne Stakes in his prior start That colt was the 1-4 favorite in that race and he held the lead as they turned for home. Stop the Car came up boldly to his outside and went right by, drawing clear to win by over three lengths. Since that race, he’s had four works over this course, so there’s been plenty of time to get acclimated to the local surroundings. He’s trying to pass the two turn test today, but from a visual perspective, his two wins are two of the better efforts that I watched from this group. Maximum Security does well with his runners in route races, winning 18% of the time. However, he’s only sired one horse that has won a stakes race (Instant Replay won three stakes races last year). The dam produced useful horses that were successful at two turns, but none of her runners were spectacular. He’s overachieved so far and I think he’s going to outrun his odds once again today.
11 – Chip Honcho (9-2 ML): He was my pick to win the Gun Runner, in part because I thought he was going to get a great, front-running trip as the lone speed in that race. Crown the Buckeye was quicker early on though, and he went right to the front, taking away his rail position. Paco Lopez was resigned to track the leader with this Connect colt, and I don’t think the horse really wanted to do that. He was very keen down the backstretch, while Paco clearly had his hands full. Crown the Buckeye drew clear at the top of the stretch, but that one began to falter late. This one felt a little one-paced, but he was still gaining on the leader. He was able to hold off Liberty National, who was the favorite, and secure the win. He’s now started three times and essentially earned the same Beyer Figure each time. He’s drawn the far outside post for this race, so it’s going to be interesting to see how Paco Lopez plays that hand. I think the horse wants to be out front, and he definitely expended some energy in the early stages while his rider was trying to get him to track the leader. I don’t think he’s quick enough to clear outright from the outside post, so I think if he goes to the front, he’s going to have to work hard to get the lead. He’s been consistent, so I think at minimum, we know the kind of race he’s going to run, but I think others are better positioned to move forward.
The verdict: 10-5-1
I think how you attack this race depends on how you feel about the Gun Runner Stakes. I don’t think that race was all that good and if I’m going to bet a horse back from that race, I think I’d rather have Quality Mischief (#1), who should offer some value as opposed to the two favorites. However, I’m going to try some fresh faces here, making Stop the Car (#10) the top pick. I really liked both of his victories. He’s shown that he’s versatile and he’s better than he’s gotten credit for thus far. While others might have a higher ceiling beyond this race, I think this is a horse that is capable of moving forward once again. I’m looking for Curtis to settle in a spot near the middle of the pack, while trying to save some ground. After watching how he finished up in his first two races, I think he could be finishing the strongest here.
I have no idea how the public is going to bet this race, but as long as Golden Tempo (#5) stays above 6-1, I’m comfortable using him. Jose Ortiz has dominated on this course and the fact that he’s riding this one over Mesquite (#7), who comes from the same barn, tells me that he thinks this Curlin colt is the goods. He probably wasn’t supposed to win that debut race, but he was rolling late at a distance that felt too short for him and was able to get up in time. He should only improve on the stretch out. Losing Lasix is a bit of a hang-up for me, which is why I needed to hold firm on that 6-1 figure, but I do think he has the highest ceiling in the field.
Quality Mischief covered more ground than both Crown the Buckeye (#3) and Chip Honcho (#11) in the Gun Runner Stakes, and he finished only a length behind them that day. He now draws inside of both of them in a race where the pace should be more contested early on. I think he can sit a little farther back and make a better run at the leaders. Cox has three runners that are live here and he is starting off as the longest price of that trio. If that holds true, there will be value in playing this one to improve again today.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
