Road to the Kentucky Derby – Alex’s Pedigree Paddock
Alex Henry | February 24th 2024
Goal: Highlight interesting pedigrees of 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders who are also my best bets of the race.
Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn Park
Carbone (February 2021)
Owner: William & Corinne Heiligbrodt & Flurry Racing Stables | Breeder: (Ky) William & Corinne Heiligbrodt
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Mitole o/o Treasure In Heaven by Street Sense
True Nicks: B
Carbone was beaten as the 9/5 favorite in the Southwest Stakes last out, but I am prepared to give him one more chance on a fast track and 15-1 morning line odds. Most recently a beaten 7th by 21 ¾ lengths in his first try of a muddy racetrack, with Mystik Dan perhaps being the second coming of Exaggerator, I believe Carbone will relish the dry track today. Today, we take a deep dive into his intriguing pedigree that at first glance leans sprint but includes significant stamina influence upon a closer look.
Sired by 2019 Champion Sprinter Mitole (Eskendereya o/o Indian Miss by Indian Charlie), is the sire of two graded stakes winners over 8 furlongs so far as a young stallion (V V’s Dream and Ice Cold). Mitole’s pedigree contains more stamina that expected from a winner from 6 – 8 furlongs. Mitole’s sire Eskendereya won the 9 furlong Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial stakes as a promising 3 year old. Retired that spring with a soft tissue injury while training for the 2010 Kentucky Derby, we will never know his true stamina potential. However, there are strong indications of what could have been, being sired by Giant’s Causeway who was a 3-time Group 1 winner at 2000m or approximately 10 furlongs, the potential was present. 2022 Kentucky Broodmare of the Year Indian Miss was unable to excel on the racetrack, however, has generated great success in the breeding shed. Not only foaling Mitole, but also multiple graded stakes winner over 9 furlongs Hot Rod Charlie (by Oxbow).
Carbone is the only registered foal to race out of Treasure In Heaven (Street Sense o/o Richwoman by Successful Appeal), one-time career winner of a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park over 6 furlongs, her pedigree is a mix of stamina and precocious miler speed. Sired by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and trained by legendary Carl Nafzger, he proved his affinity for classic distances by also winning the Grade 1 Travers stakes during his 3 year old season. Street Sense crosses well with mares with significant miler influence, with 4-time Grade 1 winner McKenzie being a prime example, out of Runway Model who performed best at 8.5 furlongs. Dual Grade 1 winner Maxfield is another example, his dam Velvety earned her sole win at ~8 furlongs in England. Treasure In Heaven’s Grade 3 winning dam Richwoman (Successful Appeal o/o Richbabe by Richman) contributes to Carbone’s 5 x 6 inbreeding to the great Alydar. Exclusively campaigned in sprints, her Grade 3 win came as a 2 year old in the 2006 Debutante Stakes over 6 furlongs. Unable to replicate winning form subsequently, she was retired after her 3 year old season. Richbabe was able to foal two-time winner over 8.5 furlongs, Now Power (Tiznow). Treasure In Heaven is also a half-sister to the 8.5 furlong 2015 Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap winner Street Baby, interestingly sired by Street Sense.
I understand that Carbone needs to achieve a successful rebound akin my local Detroit Lions in the Rebel. However, the dry forecast for Oaklawn Park today coupled with his anticipated upside racing in his 4th career start makes me hopeful of a strong performance. Mitole’s influence of early speed coupled with Treasure In Heaven’s stamina influence of Street Sense is suggestive of a well-performing combination. Carbone drew post 1 as inside dependable speed, yet it will be interesting to see if chief speed rival Timberlake can cross over 6 horses to challenge the lead as he was unable to do so in the Breeders Cup Juvenile 4 months ago. His odds are sure to plummet from 15-1 before post time, however, I am looking forward to getting a bit of value on Carbone today – as we can be reasonably hope he will not be bet down to 9/5 here.
