Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Mrsaintpatrick (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 5-4-3
The Santa Anita fall meet kicks off this afternoon and runs until Nov. 1. 5-Smashing Machine returns to turf after finishing second on both his grass and the main-track efforts for Team Baffert, and the sophomore son of Charlatan should be set for a career-best try this afternoon in start number three. He gets a cozy outside draw in short field and switches to Hernandez. 4-Ruler of Law returns off an eight-month layoff with a spirited work tab, which includes a “best of 96” five-furlong bullet drill in :45.3 on Sept. 20. This son of Tiz the Law’s lone turf sprint try over this course at the beginning of the year resulted in a strong second over a pair of next-out winners. 3-Conquer We Must (Ire) shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon, having finished second in two of three turf tries for trainer Simon Callaghan with competitive Beyers for this level. Rosario on.
Race #2: Selections: 2-5-6
2-Queen of Bantry flashed solid early zip in her July 26 unveiling and finished up a good second in what’s turned out to be a productive $16k maiden claiming event, producing three next-out winners. The Goldencents filly steps up in class today but looks like a good fit for her low-profile connections. 5-Druliner is a logical fit in here, moving back to dirt and dropping in for a first-time tag this afternoon for trainer Craig Lewis. This filly adds blinkers, retains Hernandez, and is back sprinting. 6-Magic Advice is by Cat Burgler, who gets an average 13% with his 3-year-old-and-up debuting prodigy. She debuts with Lasix, and this barn is 4 for 25 (16%) with maiden-claiming sprint-dirt debut runners at Santa Anita, with a $3 ROI over the past five years.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-6
1-Eltonsingsanother must negotiate the tricky rail draw but has run par or better on multiple occasions at this class level for trainer Edwin Alvarez and rarely misfires. 4-Chasing Kat goes second off the Gary Stute claim, and her last try on Sept. 11 is perhaps excusable after breaking through the gate (but never leaving the stall), but reloaded and never getting involved. This 5-year-old mare’s two starts this campaign were solid: a win off a 11-month layoff Aug. 16, followed up by a second two weeks later. The speedy 6-Willow Cove returns to Santa Anita, where she’s run well in two of three tries over this main track, albeit some time ago. She’ll take these as far as she can on the front end.
Race #4: Selections: 6-2-5
6-Mighty Toro finished a much-improved second when dropped to this level in last on Aug. 22 and settling for the runner-up spot for Sadler over a pair of today’s returning rivals. The gelding sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (71) and should be ready for another top effort this afternoon, third start of the current form cycle. A beaten tepid favorite in last 2-Born to Rock finished behind the top choice in last but was a good second two-back and has been gelded since that last effort for McCarthy. 5-Pyrokinetic is slowly improving for Drysdale and now makes the all-important third lifetime start.
Race #5: Selections: 3-8-2
3-Mrsaintpatrick just missed by a nose in a much-improved second start for Doug O’Neill on Sept. 11 over at Los Al over a trio of today’s returning rivals and is a logical fit if able to replicate or improve upon that performance. 8-Big Time Coach rallied along the rail for the show spot after getting bounced around a bit at the start when well-backed in start number two, finishing behind Mrsaintpatrick in the aforementioned Los Al event two weeks ago. The Vladimir Cerin-trained 2-Patricia’s Boy is by He Be Fire N Ice, who is only 1-for-22 (4%) with his juvenile debuting prodigy, but lures Hernandez at first-asking. Perhaps there’s more in the tank than he’s shown in a.m. drills.
Race #6: Selections: 6-2-1
6-Piedra Fria (by Frosted) looked like a good thing for Team O’Neil when kicking clear late at 11-1 on debut Aug. 21, earning a strong (86) turf Beyer, and is bred to handle the stretch-out to two turns. The 3-year-old gelding followed up that impressive unveiling with a sharp “best of 27” five-furlong bullet in :58.4 on Sept. 18. 2-Jordi Bear (Ire) gets some class relief, dropping out of the G2 Del Mar Derby for D’Amato, where he finished up sharply after breaking cleanly but last of the group of eight. The gelding makes the third try of the current form cycle off an improving Beyer pattern and gets a much cozier inside draw this afternoon. 1-He’s a Knockout returns to grass for trainer Carla Gaines, where he’s won two of three starts, and the Smiling Tiger colt reunites with Hernandez, who is a perfect 2-for-2 aboard this chestnut.
Race #7: Selections: 7-2-1
7-Desert Kat is 0-for-5 at Santa Anita but is drawn outside the other projected speed this afternoon for George Papaprodromou and should get a favorable trip today, making his third consecutive try at this level. 2-Harbor Code finished behind the top choice two-back but makes his second try for the new barn off a recent sharp runner-up over the Del Mar turf Aug. 21 against better. 1-My Man Joe Roldan crossed the finish line second but was placed first via DQ on Aug. 16 when the race winner was found to have caused interference to another rival who unseated his rider in the early stages of the race. This gelding shortens back up to a sprint today, stepping up to face winners for top barn and retains Rosario.
Race #8: Selections: 5-8-2
5-Vallendar finished a strong closing third at 39-1 behind next-out winner Stormy Sunset in last over at Del Mar when switched to grass in start number two, and is a logical threat if she can replicate that effort over the Santa Anita lawn. 8-Thebeachisback goes dirt to turf in career try number three and has plenty of turf pedigree on the dam side, suggesting the surface switch will move this daughter of Omaha Beach up substantially. She’s hardly been disgraced in both main track tries at Del Mar, resulting in show finishes. 2-Leading Lady by multiple Grade 1 winner Oscar Performance lures Rispoli at first-asking for conditioner Dan Blacker and is likely to come out running.
