Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Respect the Crown (Race 5)
Race #1: 9-In Your Face makes her third start off the bench today and takes a sizable class plunge for the Eurton barn. The 5-year-old mare was second in her lone turf try over this course and barn switches to go-to winning pilot. 3-De Joria has run close to par for this class level in both grass starts this year and now makes the first start off the claim for conditioner Steve Knapp. This barn is only 2 for 27, however, with recent claims on turf at SA for the past 5 years. A good fit, nonetheless, while making her third start of the form cycle. Her stablemate 4-Katerini is also a new barn acquisition coming off a near miss in the same Sept. 4 event after running up on the heels of runners and finishing strongly late to just miss.
Selections: 9-3-4
Race #2: The $675K Keeneland purchase 6-Flynn’s Chance by Medaglia d’Oro finished a non-threatening sixth on Aug. 19 debut but is eligible to move forward this afternoon on the stretch-out for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. This barn is 3 for 11 (27%) with second-time dirt route starters at Santa Anita. The Baffert Malibu Moon filly 5-Nothing Like You goes two sprints to a route off a field’s best last-out main track Beyer and is bred to handle two-turns successfully. 2-Tianma improved when switched to the main track Aug. 19–a race that’s produced a pair of next-out winners.
Selections: 6-5-2
Race #3: 6-Legislator has run back-to-back sharp turf efforts including crossing the wire first when Dq’d two-back and placed sixth. Both grass route Beyer(s) have been above par for this class level and excellent turf pilot Rispoli takes over. 2-Calm Sea ran well off the six-month freshening when finishing third Sept. 9 after encountering some traffic issues and shaking free too late. The son of Mendelssohn was a good second over this course two-back. 1-Pinehurst (Ire) is a 4-year-old gelding import making his first stateside start for the D’Amato barn off a 14-month layoff. He draws the rail with Lasix and has been working steadily (locally) since late August.
Selections: 6-2-1
Race #4: 1-Colt Fiction goes first off the claim for trainer Peter Miller who is a strong 9 for 20 (45%) with a $2.87 ROI with new barn purchases sprinting on dirt at SA the past 5 years. The veteran 8-year-old gelding has disappointed in the last pair but is a multiple winner over the track/distance and can bounce back here. The blinkers come off 5-Super Chief today who has a win and three second-place finishes from four career starts for trainer Librado Barocio. The 5-year-old switches to Hernandez and makes the third start of the form cycle. 4-Sauls Call flashed speed and tired to finish third in his most recent effort Sept. 23 but returns to SA where he’s 1-2-0 from 4 starts.
Selections: 1-5-4
Race #5: 2-Respect the Crown rallied sharply for the third spot on Sept. 8 debut at 20-1 for conditioner Jeff Mullins. This juvenile filly by Palace Malice should be a handful with any normal second-out improvement and that event has already produced a pair of next-out winners. 3-Ellie Moore (Ire) was a beaten favorite in the first stateside start for D’Amato Aug. 6 when breaking a step slow and is eligible to improve substantially with that race under her belt. She was a strong second in her initial start at the Curragh in Ireland back in the spring. Her sire was a multiple grade 1 winner overseas. 8–Double Baty (Ire) adds blinkers off a troubled trip seventh in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Sept. 9 and can rebound this afternoon dropping back down in against MDSW types. Hernandez takes over for McCarthy.
Selections: 2-3-8
Race #6: 3-Chaos Reigns adds blinkers, projects to be forwardly placed, and makes the second start at today’s reduced level. This 5-year-old gelding shows two sharp a.m. drills since his last start including a “best of 87” 5 furlongs on Oct. 2 in :59 flat. The Sept. 4 event has produced an eye-catching six next-out winners. 9-Habeas makes career start number 10 today but has good early speed, comes off a top main track Beyer (80) at Los Al, and meets a weak group of $20k maiden claimers. A decent chance this 3-year-old colt to go gate-to-wire this afternoon, but hard endorse on the win end. Turf to dirt 7-Take Action makes the first start off an extended layoff for a hot barn and gets in light.
Selections: 3-9-7
Race #7: 3-Ultimate Hy was a beaten favorite in three of her last four starts but shortens up to 6 ½ furlongs today, is reunited with the winning pilot, and has run well over this Santa Anita grass course. The versatile 5-Rose Dawson moves back to turf for D’Amato off a smashing main track win Sept. 16 and makes her third start of the form cycle. The consistent 6-Rose Maddox comes off a sharp runner-up performance in the Solana Beach Aug. 25 but despite her strong 5-8-1 record from 17 career starts the 4-year-old filly has shown to prefer going longer. Hernandez shows up on Rose Dawson and that might be the telltale sign.
Selections: 3-5-6
Race #8: In a weak and inconsistent group of low-level claimers such as this it appears like a good spot to try a price play. 8-Equilove (Ire) hasn’t been seen since October of last year but is proven off the layoff and has high cruising speed to bottom out this field for trainer Steve Knapp potentially. Class dropping 3-A New Peace goes second off the claim for conditioner Mike Puype who is 4 for 17 (24%) the past 4 years at SA with this angle. 7-Code Ribbon comes off a decent runner-up try at Los Al Sept. 16 when sandwiched between two of the same fillies she faces again this afternoon and is eligible to move forward today making her second start off the bench.
Selections: 8-3-7
Race #9: 9-Caisson is 2 for 20 but makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon and projects to get a live pace flow to close into for trainer Manuel Ortiz. The 5-year-old’s last two route turf Beyers match up well here. 5-Aurelian Man is a multiple winner over this turf course and is wheeled back on two week’s rest off a recent stalking trip win against cheaper Sept. 29. He’s another who would be the beneficiary of a contested speed tussle early on. 2-Big Hat Willie has little grass pedigree for trainer Peter Miller but the right come-from-behind running style to pick up the pieces late if he takes to today’s new surface.
Selections: 9-5-2
Race #10: 9-Stamp My Passport has won three of his last four starts for trainer Leonard Powell and comes off career-best main track Beyer (85) Sept. 8. He steps up in sharp form. 1-Ghazaaly finished second on the class drop in last with a big figure and has come back to work well since that Sept. 10 effort for conditioner Vladimir Cerin. The lightly raced 4-Arrowthegreat comes off a sharp gate-to-wire maiden win on the stretch-out over next-out winning colt Mucino who came back to Beyer (88) on Oct. 8. The Arrogate gelding projects to be forwardly placed once again this afternoon.
Selections: 9-1-4
Race #11: The late-closing 3-Overdue has been freshened for D’Amato and when last seen back on July 23 was a sharp winner at this level. His stablemate 5-Cali Bay (Ire) also comes off a win (Aug. 3) and has more tactical early foot than the top choice. 8-Tiz Plus goes first off the claim for Team O’Neil off a winning effort Sept. 4 and this barn is a strong 5 for 17 (29%) the past two years with recent turf acquisitions at Santa Anita. The 7-year-old gelding is 0 for 7 over the SA grass course but does have a combined 5 ITM finishes 0-3-2.
Selections: 3-5-8
Very pleased that you returned to handicapping!