Show 42: Weekend Wrap and Preakness Look Ahead

PTF and JK are back with a recap of impressive performances in the Beaugay and Runhappy among others (30:15). There’s also a discussion of the team tactics in the Man o’ War (18:45). Lastly, they look ahead to next weekend’s Preakness with a lengthy discussion about those horses coming out of the Derby and the trips they had (52:10).

 

Prefer to read it? See below.

***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***

If you’re going to be in Baltimore on Preakness week, you should come hang out with me. I’m going to be at the America’s best racing pre Preakness party. On Wednesday night, they’ve been doing this the last few years. It’s been a big hit it’s at the Mount Washington Tavern. There’ll be lots of fun stuff going on, including complimentary drink, tickets, snacks, a door prize, and we’re going to be doing a Preakness preview panel featuring myself.

Gabby God debt, who everybody knows from her fine work on TV and Sean to Google who listeners will know from his many great appearances on this show. There’s also going to be a silent auction. Tickets on site are $30, but you can beat that by using the promo code ITM pod for $5 off easiest way. To get these tickets is to go to event bright.com and then search for the America’s best racing pre Preakness party.

And then as you purchase tickets, use that code ITM pod. We’re going to have a lot of fun down there in Baltimore. We hope you join us. If you have any trouble getting the tickets, et cetera, reach out to me. You can find me on Twitter at looms boldly, or send me a message through the, in the money podcast.com website.

We’ll help get you sorted out. Why aren’t you there with me and Sean and Gabby and the ABR team and the rest Wednesday of Preakness week in Baltimore. Mt. Washington Tavern. We’ll see you then

your listening to the, in the money players podcast.

Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show number 42. We are recording on Monday, May 13th. I’m your host, Peter Thomas.  back with you in the Brooklyn bunker. Once again, Mugsy, the handicapping Labrador has chosen to join me today. She’s been sorta. Deciding to stay upstairs a lot.

She, she hasn’t booked, frankly. She hasn’t been as into the show since we left our old corporate bosses, I don’t know what loyalty she had to them. But anyway, she’s back here today. Also back with me calling in from the planet, Texas is the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen, JK. What’s up PTF. What’s the word I, uh, watched a little basketball last night.

Saw Kai Leonard. I hit a, an unbelievable shot. That was pretty fun to watch. Um, and then I switched over to, uh, the old game of Thrones and, uh, woke up this morning and had to call you and do a little therapy session. I was struggling with some of the outcomes of the show and you guided me home. I feel much better now.

We’ll be able to have a normal, I’m glad to hear it. I’m very glad to hear that. We’re not going to do spoilers on the show JK, but I’m glad I was able to help. I got in trouble enough the other week, spoiling a battle battle of winter fell for you. We, we, we don’t need to repeat that experience for the listeners.

No, we don’t, we don’t need to do that at all. Uh, but I think we are going to try to spoil the Preakness for you. Let us know who’s going to win that race. Try. We’re going to definitely try very exciting news about Warrior’s charge going to be entered in there. Not sure if that’s who you were referring to.

We’re going to get to that in a little bit. Before we launch into the show proper, we had a few things we wanted to do today. First of all, I wanted to talk about how much fun I had in Chicago over the weekend. What a great community of HorsePlayers they have out there. I want to thank everybody who turned up and said, hello.

That was great. Especially Matt Miller, who was an amazing host for two days of a ton of fun. Amazing seats at the Cubs game. It was as happy as I’ve ever seen Dave Freud. I have to say at the Cubs game on Thursday, JK more glee than when he went up to accept his and HC tour championship. Just being that close to the Cubs for a nice win on a Thursday afternoon.

I don’t know. You’re not a big baseball guy, but there is for me, something about being. At a day baseball game. You’ve put one over on life. When you have the opportunity to sit out there and enjoy baseball, especially from the amazing seats that Matt procured, that was just a great day out. Where are you with baseball these days?

Look, I respect sports in general. I love, uh, you know, I love underdog stories. I love hard work and dreams coming true, and all those things are a lot of fun and I’ll never knock. Uh, the players on the field, the coaches, I’m sure they work tirelessly to get to where they are and to continue to stay where they are.

Um, it’s hard to watch though. You know, we, we actually saw something funny on Twitter. We joked about. Where, uh, there was it between two pitches. They super impose the Kentucky Derby in its entirety between two pitches. So there was a tool gap. And that for me is very, very hard to overcome. And, and, um, and, and to, to pivot a little bit to something I wanted to talk about anyways, and something that we, we, we said we were going to talk about.

We had planned on talking about it this early in the show was, uh, a good friend of mine that. That I met when I was at the university of Texas and I met this guy because we played in, in, in competitive, like Madden tournaments together, a guy by the name of Hunter. And we used to play together all the time.

We, you know, it’s the competitiveness. And then, you know, he’s a sports better now. And he would base with me every three, close to the first Saturday in may and ask me questions. But, uh, for whatever reason, this time around, he like was really, really. Into it. And he came back again and, you know, the Monday after and wanted to ask them more questions.

And then we had like an hour long screen-share right. Walked in through PPS. One thing I will tell you is the easiest PP to walk a new player through is time form us. For sure. It’s, it’s so much easier to explain because of the assistance with colors and graphics. That it’s so much easier to explain something that you couldn’t explain with other past performances.

For instance, the idea of trying to explain to someone you want to identify first and foremost, is the race going to be fast, early or slow early. It’s simple to do on time for them because you have the time form pace projected in the right-hand corner too, to help them understand that. Then you also have the red and blue fractions.

We won’t go down this whole thing, but anyways, He texted me right after he played his first head to head contest that he won. And he said, this is the best sport on earth. And it made me really happy. You know, it’s like, it reminded me of like, why we’re here and yes, we’ve got lots of issues in our game.

We’ve got to work through and, and they’re, they’re highlighted and reminded to us. On a weekly basis, but it’s still, we’re, we’re, we’re starting with the best point you can for, uh, for successful sport. And so it was a lot of fun to, to get a new guy rolling. And it’s a daunting task. I’ll tell you that it feels overwhelming when you’re trying to do it.

But what I found is just throw it all at them. See what sticks and they’ll keep coming back for more nice work by you. JK trying to hustle up some partnership money from DRF empire and time form us there. I I’m very impressed with that, but in all seriousness, I agree with you about how that program, particularly, probably because it was actually designed.

The in this century does, I think resonate, especially with younger type of potential fans who weren’t indoctrinated through the old school pages of the newspaper. And also what you’re saying makes me realize we have an opportunity and I don’t even know, honestly, if this should be something we do business meeting in the middle of the show, we do production meetings.

We’ll do a business meeting. Drew will hear it later and weigh in. I don’t even know that it has to be. Partner-driven sponsor driven, whatever you want to call it. I think it would be a tremendous service to our listeners. Obviously, most of our listeners are gonna know this stuff, but if we were to create some educational material potentially across, um, information empires, like it wouldn’t just be time for them, us.

It could, we could have some element of talking about the sheets, some elements of talking about stats, racism, that whatever it is, but some basic introductory material to get players further along on their journeys and also give our listeners. A chance to show other people, maybe they already have their routine, but we all, when you mentioned Hunter and you said, he’s one of those people who reaches out the first Saturday in may, we all have people like that.

Obviously if we’re racing fans, but. And we probably all know that some of those people would do it more than one day a year. If we set them on the right track. And I’m a believer that as racing fans in 2019, this is something that’s worth doing. It’s not like our responsibility or anything. I’m not going to get that heavy about it.

But if you want to help out with racing, trying to take some of those once a year fans and give them tools to become, even if at first it’s only six times a year fans or whatever it is. I think you and I could help in that regard, would you be game to do something like that? Even if we can’t necessarily tie it to a new income stream for the business?

I’d absolutely be interested in that. And, and, um, I get a lot of joy in it. Just, you know, I love nothing makes me happier than like taking someone to the racetrack and then like it clicking for them like, wow, this is really fun and really cool. And, and, and, um, And I think that one of the biggest issues we have in this sport, which is not really one of the scary issues, it’s just an issue that some creative creativity needs to be, you know, put into play here.

But our barrier to entry is very difficult. It just is. And it’s, it’s difficult for reasons that the thoroughbred idea foundation laid out with the, with the information not being free. Um, cause I mean, you know, Here’s the thing, like a hundred starting to play in these contests. And suddenly I had to explain to him that the information he needs to put his best foot forward is probably going to cost him more than the $22 entry fee into the head to head.

Yeah. That’s the bizarre it is what it is, right. I mean, that’s one thing I think we, and then just, it’s hard. It’s a hard game. It’s not like it’s not like a betting football, you know, it’s that team has Tom Brady and that team has Blake Bortles. Easy. Here we go. You know, that’s, if you can participate in and it’s easy, it’s much harder to do.

Um, it’s much harder to do and this situation, but I tell you what it’s, uh, if, if you ever feel overwhelmed by, by trying to help someone new, it’s a daunting task, but when you wake up on a Monday morning and you get texts that says. What do you think about parks and TDN this’ll downs? Meaning that he’s looking for some more horseracing action on a Monday.

You’ve done. You’ve done your job. We’ve got this one hooked that’s for sure. You’ll have to keep us posted on his journey. Sounds really interesting. It sounds like somebody who’s liable to qualify for something good soon. Well, have them on first week after the Preakness. So we’ll do our Preakness recap.

And then maybe we’ll have him on and just kind of give us, uh, where he’s at and then we’ll check back in with them a month from now. And then we’ll occasionally just kind of see where he’s at and he’s a lifer. I can tell you right now, he’s in, he’s in for the long haul. It’ll be fun to watch his progression.

And also I’d love to hear some feedback from listeners about this idea of are doing this educational type material. What would be most useful for you? Our audience, if folks have some thoughts they want to share. Feel free to do so you can hit us up on Twitter at looms boldly at UT big hair. You can send us a note through the, in the money podcast as well in the money podcast.com.

I should say the blog and we’ll get your notes and we’ll try to come up with something fun. I don’t know when we’re going to get to it. We’ve got a lot of potential new ideas cooking, and obviously we’re doing the weekly shows for Niara bets as well right now, but I think it’s worth planning. There are certainly times throughout the year JK where we could fit this type of thing into our schedules.

And I’m almost positive. It’s a great idea. It’d be fun to do like a, you know, production meeting inside the show. It’d be fun to do a segment. And this is what I try to do with him. Was I just walked through and like used every little section and like told them how I use it. Right. Like, so, you know, when you look at time form U S and there’s that one little box that’s has the horses record, how much money they’ve made?

Are they a Coulter gelding their age when they were a fold where they were born. And then if they were sold at a sale, like there’s a lot of information there that’s used when you’re handicapping races. And I tried to break that down for him. And one of the examples was. Well, horse was sold for $75,000 at auction, but was running today in a maiden claimer for 20.

So I just explained to him that your brain needs to work of, like, why is the ownership group doing that? Are they trying to cut their losses? You know, they, they spent 75,000 and now they’re, they’re selling the horse for 20. He clearly might, you know, you know, so there’s a, a way in which you could highlight how each box on a PP is used and utilized and how you can.

What are some of the clues you can look for? Things like that. I think it’s a good idea. And it’s something we’ll talk about more and definitely pursue another thing. That’s been happening a lot lately, and that’s very gratifying. We’ve had a lot of listeners talk to us about things they can do to help the show.

I feel like with some of these live events we’ve been doing in particular, we’re taking this virtual community online. That we’ve helped create and moving it into the real world, which is great. And it’s something we want to continue to do. And I know J K U in particular had one really good idea of something that I phone users can do to help the show.

I’m going to work on a whole article about this topic that I’ll be posting on the blog, and we’ll make sure to promote on the blog soon, but explain the one that you were particularly interested in. Right. I, I think most people, um, in the world today, I have iPhone, not all, but most, um, you know, most of my texts are blue, not green.

Um, one of the things that you can do and which I do for, you know, I did for this show and other shows as well is go to that little purple podcast icon, um, that you should have somewhere. And if you don’t just swipe to the right and you can type in podcast and then you’ll find it and then just, you know, go to search type in, in the money players, podcasts.

And you will see a picture of Pete and I. Um, Eric EO is a down South. He probably believes in Buddha will tell you don’t push my face, push pizzas. Okay. So you click on to me. I don’t want him to view to me if someone’s going to get it. I hope it’s you. Um, there should be a purple subscribe button, click the subscribe button.

If for whatever reason, if it’s not showing up for you, you can hit the purple. To the right. There’s like a purple situation with three white dots, click that, which was such a subscribe option there. And then if you love us a lot, um, click share and there should be an option for you to send this situation to whoever your horse racing buddies are that may or may not be subscribed.

Because what I found out doing some research is that we, um, you know, over the last, you know, whatever five, five or six months we’ve been doing the show. We’ve had X number amount of devices listened to the show, but like only half of them are subscribed to the show. And so if we do an emergency podcast or we do a Niara vet show, or we do a chemo and select show, or we do a blank new show that we’re in the process of coming up with no spoilers, no spoilers.

You’re not you, you won’t see it unless you’re checking for it. Unless you subscribe you subscribe. You’ll get a little message that, Hey, you got a new show and. And here you go. So, and it helps us a lot if you subscribe to it. So, uh, do us that favor, send it to your buddies at listen to horseracing as well.

Um, you guys pretty much do everything we need you to do anyway, just by supporting the show, listening to the show and. Saying nice things to us. Absolutely. We’re not complaining and saying, Hey, you need to do more for us. If you want to help out. These are some of the ways that you can, speaking of helping out the show, I can’t help.

When we talk about the concept of thinking of our buddy Jean Manez, who did the wonderful bingo. He was our holiday quiz champion. He’s got a free square for the next time. He does it. JK, you know where I’m going with this. No, I don’t situation. Apparently we both say it. It’s the new yanno. Apparently it’s on every show multiple times and we’re both guilty this time.

I don’t think we have to stop. I feel like that one is less of an arm or an ER, and just something that has become part of what we speak. But I just, it is funny now that I’m listening for it, I’m hearing it all the time from both of us. So yeah. Thank you very much. I think it was drew Cody who pointed that one out.

Yeah. But whatever. It’s good. We appreciate people trying to keep us honest and keep our broadcasting skills up to that NBC Fox level that you had at sky sports racing that we have to, at some point, I’m not gonna be able to say anything anymore. I have been leaving the pianos back in they’re infrequent enough now that they don’t bother me.

So I’ve, I’ve left a few of those here and I hope, uh, hope nobody minds that this is a complete aside. And then I promise we’ll talk about something more important. I, I think the reason that I was, I still believe in it. You’re still gonna, you’re still trying this. Okay. No, no. I still believe in that. It’s okay.

But here’s what I’m saying though, is I, I, you know, we talked about this actually in a weird way earlier today, Pete is like, I think that I feel weird when I talk slow and give big gaps of air. Okay. I just feel like. W, you know, words need to be coming out of my mouth. And so that one was an easy one to just pop out, to get me going into trends.

You know what I mean? That’s right. That’s right. People would just say, uh, and then go, I had an interview. I’m not going to say who, but I had an interview recently on the show. It sounded clean as a whistle when we played it. But every single comment started with. Uh, it’s that you want to talk about something that’s not broadcast ready?

That that would be it. Yeah. No, certainly sounds better than, uh, but you know, professional broadcaster like yourself, you’re, you’re just going to keep getting cleaner and cleaner and eventually it’s going to be like, I’m talking to Bob Costas over here. We’re probably the same height,

man. So that’s ridiculous. All right. Where are we going to go from here? Why don’t we actually talk about some horse racing? What do you think? JK? We had some good ones over the weekend. Let’s start with the man of war stakes and let’s start by talking about Aiden O’Brian and how I feel like. All the fastest paces we’ve seen in American turf racing over the last several years are the result of what you might call team tactics.

Now, I think on the show the other day, I referred to the idea of hunting horn, potentially being used as a rabbit. It’s not exactly a rabbit though. I realize it’s really team tactics is a better way to describe it. You think back to Highland reels when in the Breeder’s cup turf, if Highland reel. He’s giving himself as best chance to win on the front end.

If he’s allowed to run efficiently, like he does, he wins the race. If he ends up running inefficiently or getting pressed to run too fast found is going to probably win that race. That’s the way I see it. I think that’s the way that Aiden thinks about it. And I feel like that was more or less the case with hunting horn.

I mean, he ends up up by eight at the mile of the race. I don’t think he was just trying to set the pace. I think he was trying to win in the end. It doesn’t exactly work out. It seemed like magic wand just didn’t quite have the kick lit. I don’t want to say she didn’t stay, but she didn’t seem to have that same kind of kick going a little bit farther.

And in the end channel maker gets the win for Joel Rosario with our old buddy, our CLO getting second. And we ended up with a very nice look and exact in that race. But, I mean, I just, the first thing I think of is, wow, how much do I enjoy seeing a turf race that had some pace in it, a few things to go over here, but first give me your initial thoughts on my car.

Look, I, I, I don’t know who I texted. Right. I was probably Sean and Jake Vallis right after where I said like, look, I, I don’t understand why more people don’t do this, like in, in all kinds of racing. And I think I know part of the answer is politics. W I think it’s that Aden and Coolmore uniquely set up to have talented horses in all of these divisions to do it right.

Like let’s pretend that it was a Windstar now. I’m not sure that Windstar has a horse that they could just blitz on the lead. In the, uh, in the track, I’m not the Travers, excuse me, but in the, in the Whitney this year to set it up for Yoshida, maybe they do, but in my brain, I can’t think of like a horse.

They want to just blitz on the lead because they don’t want to sacrifice that horse. I mean, there’s other horses, other races you think hunting horn was being sacrificed? I don’t think he’s sacrificed. I think that if hunting horn wasn’t in, if magic wand was not in the race, hunting horn would not have been written that way.

It was aggressive and I think they would have it at least attempted to be a little bit more, um, calculated with the use of energy early, but with the, with the safety net of having a Philly that you are trying to get a grade one in who is uniquely talented and probably better in her own, right. As a, as a whole, then you can be a little bit more aggressive because the error.

Is another win. If you go too fast, you’re setting it up. The other one, I just don’t think they would have written her that way. Excuse me, written him that way. If she wasn’t in the race, it possible not a good use of unique. I’m not sure what you meant when you said uniquely talented there. Okay. Fair enough.

I mean, I mean, I’m saying like, I just, I think that she’s, she’s better than hunting horn and she’s worth more than hunting horn and she’s worth a lot more than hunting horn if she gets a great one. So. You’re right. I mean, uniquely talented, probably wasn’t the right use of the word, but, um, I wasn’t just trying to bust your shoes.

I was just wondering if you were trying to get at something that we didn’t, we didn’t get to there. Sue’s busted. Sorry. It wasn’t just, you know, J K tries grammar fails. It was, it was meant to, it was meant to see if there was another, another layer there. No, I understand. Um, there’s so much to talk about. I, and I think that’s a good point about star, but I didn’t view it as sacrificing.

I viewed it similar to the situation we saw with found and Highland reel. And it is true that Kool more are going to have more. Opportunities to have a really good speed horse and a really good closer than most. But I believe part of the reason why that operations here don’t do it as simply the politics.

I mean, who in this earth is more uniquely qualified and I’ll use it and we’ll see if I get it correct too, to not care what Chad Brown thinks of him than a no, Brian. Absolutely. Absolutely. You know, but let me back up one second, then we’ll get to the, to the. You know, to the Chad Aiden thing, what the difference between Highland reel and found was it Highland reel was, uh, was, was coming into the race.

Good too. He was a quality animal, a grade, one type horse hunting horn. Hasn’t won since June of last year. Right. And he’s raised probably six, seven times since then. So the idea that like, I think that’s probably apples and oranges a little bit. You think he was more, it sounds to me like you think he was more of a rabbit.

I think he’s a horse who hasn’t had situations that really were, uh, appropriate for him to show his best form. But I get your point. I mean, obviously he’s not Highland reel. Exactly. And, and I think the other thing to your point when, when we talk about the quote unquote Windstar comparison, those races take place on dirt.

And opening up by 12 on the dirt seems a lot more sacrificial than. Then then, then this situation where, you know what I mean? It just feels, I’m talking about turf races. I think dirt races are a completely other animal. I just feel like these false paces interfaces that we complain about all the time.

This is something that I’m surprised we don’t see. People with a lot of horses, even Chad himself, try to do a little bit more often where you’ve got one that can win on the front. And you’ve got one that can close. I mean, think about the big race at Saratoga last year, where I lost all the money, it helped me we’re talking with uh Cadera but.

Um, is that what you’re talking about? A Diana maybe? No, it was the next, it was, it was the next one with, uh, he had on the moon again was the one that I came back and bet heavy. And there was a Tom Albertrani Godolphin maybe that wired, this is a big race that I should know the name. And I apologize for not having it at the tip of my brain.

Where’s a where’s Nick tomorrow and Chris tippy-toe when you need them. It was the Glens falls. It was lady Mont door, got the win. And it seemed like the two Chad’s were both out of position the whole time. Anyway, it would seem to me that there’d be more situations where he might even do that for himself, but it’s just weird that we don’t see more aggressive.

Rides, maybe that one, maybe this one was, is too aggressive of an example, given how we are talking about red coated fractions throughout the entire race, but it’s just nice to see a big turf race without a false pace. I think the other two issues that with the Chad comparison, right? I mean, that’s, I think that the most fair thing we can do when it comes to turf racing is compared Chad Brown, Aiden O’Brian.

I think it’s a fair comparison to a certain extent Aiden’s been doing it a little bit longer. But I think their resumes are, you know, they’re, they’re the leading turf trainers in their respective countries. What I will say about Chad is compared to Aiden is Aiden’s all of Aiden’s horses are for one ownership group.

The idea of using one of them as a rabbit or using one of them for team tactics, you’re not offending another portion of your, of your ownership group. Chad doesn’t have. That that luxury. Cause he’s not going to use a, he’s not going to use, want to solve horses to set it up for Peter Brant or vice versa.

Uh, the other thing is, is Chad doesn’t train any of his horses like that. That’s the key, that’s the key thing. He doesn’t really have that club in his bag. It doesn’t see where it doesn’t. It’s not that doesn’t have the club in his bag. He just doesn’t believe in. Wire to wire speed on the turf. Typically does it, I mean, there, you can think of some notable exceptions when you’re talking about a certain Philly who just came back and didn’t train on or didn’t look as good as we thought she might the other day at Churchill.

But even, even in her case, you can kind of tell they didn’t want. To have newspaper record, just go to the lead and, and blitz, you know, she was just doing that cause she was so much faster. It does seem very clear to your point that his much preferred way of racing on the turf is how would you describe the trip that they all get?

Right. It’s just that, that, that, that tuck in behind there on the bridle at all times, they never come off the bridle and they stay into contention and they quick and faster than the other ones. Like that’s what happens now. Even the ones that do find the front. Rushing fall. They’re still on the bridal.

They relax and they find themselves there because that’s what the race dictates like I’m rushing fall will sit off. I mean the Lake Placid last year, she sat off in one for fun. She sat off in the Appalachian last year and one for fun newspaper of record. I think that eventually she’ll turn into a filly that will sit off if she needs to.

Um, they at the spa was a, it was a breeders’ cup winner that I believe wired, but she she’ll sit off to it. It’s that’s just not the kind of horse he has. It’s not how you train them. Um, and I don’t think they make it to that grade one level. If they’re runoff types, he’ll drop them. He’ll, there’s a lot of other things he would do with them.

You know, the other question is in the world that I’m describing where there are clear team tactics, should those horses not be coupled now on one level? I know that nobody likes a couple of entries betters. Don’t really like ’em. Obviously the track doesn’t like him, the more betting interests you have, the more money that’s going to be made.

But clearly when team tactics are employed, you’ve got some people betting on one horse thinking it might be written a certain way. I, I don’t know. Should there be coupled entries in these races if team tactics are going to be employed? I don’t think so. I mean, that’s part of the game, right? It’s part of the puzzle of, of, of figuring out what’s going to happen.

And we do that all the time. Well, what’s this guy going to do on this horse and what’s his instructions going to be? And is bill Martin going to tell Javier to rate, hidden scroll, or are they going to send him and is Joelle going to go on a suicide mission on the front end? Like that’s part of the puzzle.

And it would be very unfortunate if you believe that hunting horn was going to get loose and he would have won that race. And you’ve got stuck, tied into magic wand at, at five to two. Like, you know, I, I don’t, I just feel like. It’s it’s fair game. If you’re, if you’re getting involved in these pools, it’s your job to figure out the puzzle.

So here’s an interesting point when it comes to team tactics, right? What do you think would happen? And I just don’t see it happening, but it’d be brilliant if it did, if coming up in this race, I’m unbelievably excited about the MetLife. If, if Jason service interface world of trouble, I don’t think he’s going there.

I’m just saying as a, as an exhibit, an example enters him as the. Dead sinned, run them off their feet, open up by four, set it up. Forenza fire. I just don’t think it’s going to happen because of the difference in ownership groups, but it’s an example of how team tactics could be, could be used in this country in dirt race.

No, that’s interesting. And the met mile is on our agenda to talk about a little bit later, but I want to talk more about some of the racing from the weekend first. Let’s look at some of the other stuff that happened at Belmont J K. And we’ll go back to the bow gay and Homa reek, who we talked about on the other show, man, was this an impressive performance?

Sure. Was, um, um, the, the, the theme of the day for the turf racing, at least in the two races we’re going to talk about was. Uh, opposite of, of obviously the man of war was, was slow paces and unbelievable come home times. Uh, Homer wreak was, is doing her best sister Charlie impression coming over from France and, uh, and wowing us.

Obviously she got the wind sister Charlie’s first start in the U S I believe she was second or third, uh, with a, with a trip second, uh, second with a trip and then came back and ran. Well, I home Maricka is. It’s going to be fun to see what they do to keep these, these two horses separate. I think Homeric maybe is one that we’ll want longer while I think sister, Charlie can kind of live in that mile and, and, uh, that, that kind of mid range mile mile, and an eighth mile and a quarter we’re home, Marie could be one that we could see run against the boys in the, in the, and the big turf race.

Interesting. You say that despite sister Charlie success going longer in the breeders’ cup, filly and mare last year. Right, but that’s what three eights. Yeah. I think that race was tricky. That distance, because it changes it. Every racetrack went in, it’s still, I mean, that’s half a mile longer than your, what you were saying was her best.

Well, I’m not, I don’t think a mile is her best. I’m just saying that I think that sister that, you know, I think that sister Charlie can win in those areas where the knock on Homer Creek in this race, at least for me going into it was that it seemed that she wanted longer. If you look at the races that she ran overseas 10, for as long as 10, for as long as 10 and a half for a longs.

So you just figure that she wants to go a little bit longer. And so there’s probably an opportunity for them to keep them separated, both being owned by Peter brand. And yet I misspoke obviously three A’s stopped four A’s anyway, but I agree with that idea. I didn’t think that the mile on the 16th would be too sharp, just based on the, what I saw as the abundant class edge.

And that’s how it turned out to be ends up with a one at 20. Eight time form U S number that being upgraded because of the slow fractions throughout and yet just came home, like shot out of a gun competition of ideas. The stablemate ran a really nice race herself, but Homeric just in another class there.

Any other thoughts on the bogey? No, I, I, like I said, I just thought she was unbelievably impressive. And this is one of those rides where like, Joelle looks like a genius. Um, when there’s other rides where we’re wondering what he’s doing, this is one of those rides where he just, he just looks sometimes he just masterful when it comes to some of these horses that are coming from off the pace.

And, and I thought it was brilliant. And keep in mind, she ran a one 28 sister Charlie’s last three races, one 25, one 25 and one 26 Homer rakes, the type of Philly that if I knew where they were pointing her, I would look to get down in the breeders’ cup, uh, with the, with the, uh, you know, uh, Future wager.

Interesting. Well, something we can take a look at. You think Arlington might be in the cards. Let’s move on actually to a maiden race. We don’t always talk about maiden races on the show, but we previewed this one on the Niara Beth’s show and I just thought it was unbelievably impressive. Best performance I’ve seen.

I’m going to say, Ooh, maybe that’s too harsh to concrete Rose, but. As nearly as good as concrete roses. When was this Veronika rod? I thought just in terms of how visually stunning it was again, blue fractions coded throughout this division has some really, really talented runners. Yeah. And I’m going to say, veranda is one, even though all she’s done is winner made and connections showed how much they thought of her with the ambitious spotting last year.

And again, just visually arresting had the look of a future graded stuff. For sure. This is a tricky race because there were so many interesting pedigrees in here. And so many interesting horses that you thought could jump up and be dangerous. But if you look at that Breeder’s cup, juvenile fillies, turf.

Uh, it’s, it’s what you would call a key race if you’re just getting involved in this game and you don’t know what that is. Look that up, uh, a key race with concrete rows in there at seven to one in that Breeder’s cup, juvenile turf, fillies, the milk, the and bullet has come back in one Veronica, and then obviously the winter newspaper of record, a very talented group of three-year-old fillies on the grass.

They should be a lot of fun with this New York series coming up. Uh, starting in the next month or so newspaper doesn’t count for that to key race concept, but I know what you mean. It just you’d say in England, the race looks to have, uh, some really good form and I think that’s pretty much undeniable and it is going to be fun to see what happens in these New York steaks.

And also just interesting to see. If anybody ends up making the journey over to ask it for a race like the coronation, but it doesn’t feel like that’s going to be the plan for newspaper record, despite the early reporting of that, just based on what happened last time, et cetera. But it’ll be interesting to see a lot of Phillies with bright futures.

And did you have any others to take out of that race before we move on from this maiden? Cause I agree on paper, a lot of interesting pedigrees, any immediate bet backs come to mind. Um, I thought that that Kiran tours, uh, romantic pursuit van ran well enough, was close up on the pace. So obviously gets a little bit of a downgrade.

Yeah. Candy trip for me. I w w would be one, I’d be looking to beat honestly. Well, but, but she, she did finish home, you know, she was finishing, right. I mean, look, I I’ve learned that there’s to a certain degree on the turf, you don’t want to knock horses who find themselves on the lead. But finished. And, and it’s a, it’s a mistake I used to make all the time, because if they can still sit a trip in behind horses, they’ll shut off and relax and finish home.

I think it’s much different on dirt than it is on turf. We will be disagreeing on that one next time out. Maybe we’ll get a little head to head going. Let’s move on to race nine. It was the run happy steaks. I was against fruit and say fire. And boy, did he make me look silly? I was, I was on, um, I thought recruiting ready.

He was my top pick. I thought he was going to win coming out of that race at Kean Lynn where Bobby’s wicked one was and ran so good. And the Churchill downs sprint that totally won. You know, if you want to less and race watching and, and, and identifying a horse with a ton of run, take a look at friends, they fire between, and it was like it was over.

It was, he was loaded. Did, and you knew that when he opened up, he was going to produce, I mean, he ran, he won by four. He could have won by seven. He was, he was impressive. Very, very impressive. This is going to be a fun, fun race. The met mile. It’ll be the most exciting race. That I can think of in the last year calendar year, if it, if it, if it comes together, like it’s supposed to with McKinsey and  and forensic fire, and it’s so good that there’s another horse that I’m embarrassed.

I’m leaving out. I just can’t remember who it is. That’s how good the race is going to be. There’s there. They’re everywhere. Cold front may be J K. It is. Yeah, absolutely cold front. That’s the one, you know, the one that won the big race in Dubai and, and was impressive at Oakland park park earlier this spring.

So I mean, that race is going to be an absolute war. I’m looking forward to that for sure. It, I was opposed to the idea of moving that race to the Belmont undercard. I felt like that, you know, that used to be the big race of Memorial day weekend here in New York. And I love that, but I have to say, I just feel like it’s been the sort of low key, most exciting race several of these years on Belmont stakes day.

Um, and I’m excited to see that it’s going to really have a Cracker. Lineup once again in 2019, what else do we want to talk about in terms of racing from the weekend, Jonathan, anybody, any other races that catch your fancy? Trying to think? I was, I was pretty, I was pretty tied in with Belmont. That was where I spent most of my tension.

Marshall Graham tweeted yesterday about the another, another talking point and proving point, I guess you would say four. Uh, HorsePlayers being priced sensitive and, and the reaction that that we give to seated pools and these, these carry overs and the pick five carry over that they had at Churchill downs brought in a ton of money.

And I think Marshall mentioned the effective takeout after, after all the math was done was about 2.5%. And, uh, it was, uh, obviously a great, uh, great opportunity for horse players and, and, you know, look, we have to continue to participate in opportunities where we’re getting what we want. Right. We have to, we have to show them that we are price sensitive because so many things that we do are the opposite of being practiced.

And, uh, and, and that, I think that, that hurts us in the long run. What do you mean when you refer to that? I just think that, you know, for instance, the, the, the $2 pick six, um, the cross, they picked six, 50% takeout. They had, um, Derby Oaks weekend. It, the handle was almost embarrassing in my opinion, based on what it should have handled.

All grade ones over two days, um, 15% takeout and it handled 400,000 while the other 20 cent jackpots are handling millions and millions. And, and that, that to me is problematic. I understand there’s, you know, I understand there’s reasons for that, but. To me, the reasons aren’t good enough. We did have a couple of questions come in over the transom JK.

Let’s get to a couple of those looking back at the Derby. And I, you know, I don’t want to do some deep dive on the DQ here, but there’s certainly a lot to talk about as we start to do our looking ahead to the Preakness. And we did have a question come in about who you thought suffered the most from the kickback because of the track and should be added to horse to watch lit lists.

That is one that I haven’t thought of. Here’s what I will tell you though, who who’s, who I, who here’s, who I think wasn’t very effective by it. And that was improbable. I thought he got an unbelievable trip for majority of the race sitting right in behind, but he was close enough that I don’t think it really bothered him, but he’s also shown.

That the kickback wasn’t going to bother him by his run behind Omaha beach at Oaklawn park. He doesn’t necessarily have an excuse, but I did think he had a little bit of little bit of trouble at the top of the stretch and I thought he finished home just fine. Um, interesting. I was going to ask you about that in another segment on the show.

So I’m going to put a pin in it, cause I thought he finished up kind of flat and. Probably should have won the race. And I’m not sure about the distance form. I guess we got to do this. No, no, no, no. We’re in the middle of another question. We’re going to put a pin in that and I’m going to throw out there Tacitus as a horse who I thought seemed effected by the kickback, just visually, especially with some of those cool NBC views and one who for me has a chance to run a lot better.

When we next see him at the races. What do you think about that idea? As a guy who was alive to improbable and Tacitus, I, I love the opportunity to make an excuse for why I got beat. Um, I think that task has definitely took a lot of kickback. He wasn’t climbing, but he’s a professional game, classy racehorse.

So like, I don’t necessarily, you know, assume that just because he wasn’t acting like a jerk back there that he didn’t enjoy it. He definitely ate a lot. He definitely ate a lot of dirt. Um, the interesting thing about that field is the entire backstretch. They were so close to one another. And what I’ve learned from listening to riders and, and other people that know a lot more about being on horseback and the inner workings of a race, the closer you are to the horse in front of you, the less the kickback hits you in the face and more, it hits you on the chest.

And he never really got like strung out enough where I feel like he was getting like, just, just like annihilated in the face. I will tell you that. What do you mean? He finished the best of all. And maybe if he was in the clear the whole time, you would have had a different run out of him. But I agree with you from the, from a talent standpoint of who was a likely winner of the race.

I do think that he was probably the most effected by the kickback. What do you, and I’m not even sure. I’d say the most. He was just one that I noticed since we had that question. Come in. What do you make of master fencers run JK all in all. It was impressive. I’ll tell you that much. Um, I think it was an example of like what happens when you’re written to run.

Third or fourth rather than written Dwin. Uh, you, you, you take back and you, you make that one Ron, while everyone else is putting their horses in the race of the three eights, you’re still waiting and waiting. And when they fall apart, you run and pick up the pieces, but that move will never win the Derby at that quality of a, that from that quality of a horse, it was impressive.

I mean, it was good. Um, I hope he shows back up in another race and you know, like the Belmont and people bet them down to. 12 to one or something because they think he’s going to run well, based on that, I’ll fade him for the rest of his American dirt racing career. What made me think of him is when you said finishing best of all.

Cause while I definitely take your point and I think overall I want Tacitus by a whole lot over master fencer, coming back out of the race. If you were just looking at raw. Late pace numbers. I’m not sure that anybody would have had a faster one than master fencer. We’ll have to ask Sean Borman that on a future podcast, appearance, and also master fencer had a very brutal break, but.

Is it your view as it kind of his mind that the way he was written, the way the race unfolded, this wasn’t a situation where the bad break actually hurt him in a certain sense. He just was able to do all his running in the lane. And I’m not sure that he would have done any better necessarily with the clean getaway, just in one of those weird things that sometimes happens.

I agree with that. It’s it’s funny. This is, I probably could think of a more recent version of this. But the one that’s most impacted in my brain would be like, icebox. You know, you had that like crazy late run. And everyone was like, Oh my gosh, wait till he gets to the mile and a half. And he was nowhere.

It feels the same way. Uh, you know, it just, when you’re written that way, it’s, there’s an illusion that you’re running better than you are when there’s other horses that were put into the race that exerted more energy early in the race and try to win the race and got beat like a horse, like more of will, for example, or we’ll get to him in a minute, too.

Everything in this, in this. Oh, well talk about long range Tati. And then I’m going to ask one more question and then we’ll finally get to the conversation. We’ve both been dying to have the whole time about the Preakness. I think the long range Tati topic is that Duke. I think you mentioned it. And clay mentioned it.

And I think I mentioned it a little bit to the horse was live until it rained. Right? I think the position he put himself into in that race. And you take away the trouble you take away the surface, like he was meant to run much better than the 17th or 18th or whatever it was that he finished. And he’s a horse that I’d look for down the line and some spot, you know, he’ll probably take the easier route.

I bet we’ll see him in some of those Midwest derbies. And, uh, he’s a horse that I think is extremely talented that I’d like to bet on moving forward. I don’t think he’s a Belmont winner or a Travers winner or a Haskell winner. Uh, but he’s a Jim dandy winner. You know, he’s the type of horse that can win a race like that.

You know, with other horses, prepping are coming in off a long breaks, he’s coming in off of a, you know, an Iowa or an Ohio or whatever, something. And he shows up and runs well, interesting one to talk about. Cause it doesn’t, he doesn’t exactly answer the question of who is most effected by the kickback in terms of trips, but it’s just a horse who seemed like he didn’t want anything to do with the wet who had to contend with it and could be on the bet back list because of that.

So there, there are some good ones for the bet back list. Uh, one negative, a couple positive here is a fairly random question, but interesting. And I don’t know that there’s an answer, but I wanted to run it by you. One of our listeners wanted to know if there’s a way to hypothetically look at bets that could have been made systematically in previous years to test a wagering strategy.

Now, the first thing that comes to my mind is if you’re talking about a $2. When bat, there certainly is a way to test with a product like stats, race lens, or even DRS, formulator, where you can look and see how the wind bet would have done. But is there any way that you know of JK to test more sophisticated wagering strategies and how, how would you go about doing that if you want it to, if you wanted to try to check it out, there’s two different ways.

There’s, there’s the really expensive way. There’s the middle expensive way. And then there’s like the cheap way. I think the really expensive way would be to pay for like the, the. The retro active data, right? Like you, you pay fat from one of these data situations where you can get the, the chart information and so on and so forth, set up a database, basically set up a queryable database by purchasing data from a company like Equibase or perhaps daily racing forum.

Absolutely. You’d need some, some real programming skill and you’d need a lot of money, but you could do it that way. Right. The other situation is though, and this is a conversation I’ve had with Marshall before is I don’t think. And maybe there isn’t, if someone knows, let me know. I don’t think there’s a retroactive way to get the pool information.

Like when, I mean, by the pool information is where you can actually see. The doll, you know, most ADWS, you can see the dollar amount that was bet on a certain horse. You can see the dollar amount that was bet on a certain exact, uh, or double, um, probable or, you know, combination will pays. I think the really be able to do a full wagering model based on previous information.

You need to have those pools. Um, otherwise I think it, you know, it, it would have happened. Yeah. You don’t know what would have happened if it hit? I don’t think that’s what this question was about. I think he was more interested in. What would the ROI be on bedding? The longest shot in the field, in every race that kind of query, I think, but it does open up an interesting can of worms.

That’s race lens. You can look at the ROI. Um, you could, you know, easily, you could pull up the ROI for horses in the United States that are running on and on the turf that are 20 to one morning line or higher. That’s great. I don’t know if I think they might have a closing odds number, but I think I know for sure they have a morning line and I’m not positive about closing.

Oh, that would be a little disappointing if they didn’t. I mean, that would be, so I think it’s there. Um, but you can definitely do some, you can do some stuff like that. You can do. Uh, which I think it’d be pretty cool, you know, like to see, uh, I did, I did, I did one, uh, search on there that I thought was fun.

Just to give people some ideas of, of the power that you can use with stats. Raceland I did a deal where if a horse was bet like under two to one, the last start ran off the board. And then came back first time, gelding, like what their ROI was or whatever. Like that’s the kind of, you know, the idea that the horse was meant to do well was meant to, to run.

Well, obviously didn’t run well for one reason or another went home, had the ultimate. Uh, equipment change and then comes back to the races. How do they perform? I can’t even remember what it was. I don’t, I don’t think it was anything jarring still. Interesting. Nonetheless, you did mention another option and I want you to put that forward, but I will say we are going to be working more with stats, race lens, coming up.

If you purchase from them, use the promo code stats ITM. So we get credit for it. We haven’t finalized exactly what the discount situation is going to be. There’s that word again? But. Please do use the promo code, regardless if you’re going there. Anyway, we’ll be talking about that a lot more. JK. What was the other thought you had about ways of backtesting wagering strategy it’s to start it now and make it a weekly habit or a daily habit or something where you’re, you’re capturing the closing pool odds.

Some ADWS typically most ADWS will offer that information. Uh, the day of, so you need to try to capture it as it goes, find a way to whether you’re copying and pasting or screenshot and putting them in a file and then making it like a deal where you pay, uh, you know, you pay some young intern to, to enter it in or you, you know, there’s a lot of different ways to go about it, but you, you would do it kind of moving forward so that you can have the information a year from now when you want to do it.

Uh, that might be the, the, the cheapest way to, it’s a very hard thing to do. I can tell you that. And programming skills definitely gonna come into play. Heck this might be a topic John Kamado finds himself interested in who knows, and maybe there’s something there that we can get working on. It’s very interesting idea.

It’s definitely though. Especially tricky with expensive data. This to me is an example where I feel like the data should definitely be free. It’s just going to stimulate wagering, but alas, the world we live in. Um, and we’ll be talking more about all these types of things as we go along. I’d love to see, like, this is a great question.

Cause I’m, there’s so many fun answers you can get out of that. Like I would like to see the, um, what is the ROI, if you bet every exact combination. Or a double combination every day that pays over a hundred dollars. If you just faded all of the low ones and you just paid the ones that, that play over a hundred, would you be a winning horse player?

I’ll tell you what, if you did it, if you did it, when J K was in a big live bankroll tournament, you’d be swimming in money.

Sorry if that’s wounded. No, no, no, it’s fine. It happened for that, but there’s a million questions like this. It’s a really fun rabbit hole. Great question. Thank you for sending that one along it’s time. JK. We got to talk about this Preakness. And it’s your sounds like the vibes I’m hearing are improbable is going to be a strong favorite.

Sounds like he has bounced back. Well out of the Derby, I have one concern and one concern only about improbable my first gut. After the race, I thought I’m probable had a really good trip, which you seem to have a contrary view too, which is great. I will always love to hear your opinions when they differ with mine.

That’s where you learn stuff. But my thought was that maybe it was the distance that found him out. I thought with the trip that he got, he should have won. I’ve spent a lot of time on this replay, but not really necessarily on the probables trip, which I’ve only watched, you know, probably one and a half to two times compared to watching a certain incident 7,000 times.

Very curious to hear your take on if it was possibly the distance that found improbable out or if there’s something else at play. Yeah. So I think he had a great trip, um, up until, you know, between like the three eights and the quarter pole, when all the, the funny stuff started happening. How did you see him effected by the funny stuff?

I just think that like, he, he looked like he was about to make a move inside when maximum security came out and he feels like IRL kind of gave him one through one, cross out them to get them to go through that hole. And then maximum security over-corrected came right back down. He had to stop just a little bit, probably not even visually.

And then he had to swing back around. And then here’s the important part when it comes to the distance thing that you, you, uh, have said 17 times off air and three times on least. If you look at maximum security, if you look at country house, if you look at code of honor down on the inside and you look at the quarter pole, how far and probable is from them, he cuts that distance down as they’re finishing.

So if those two horses were quote unquote finishing then so was improbable and Tacitus is moving outside of him and traveling better than a probable was, but it probably was still trying. He was reaching to me. It was not the mile and a quarter to me, it was, they got to jump on him. He went to, I mean, he was sitting right in behind pretty fast fractions and, and two horses that were behind him early.

And maybe code of honor was pretty close to, even with him that he was finishing with those horses. I thought the distance wasn’t an issue. Um, I’m not saying he’s screaming for a mile and a half. Um, but I do love him in this spot. If you draw us in the right position. That’s right. I mean, he’s obviously going shorter here and also there’s the fact that.

Look, I’m not one of these tight turns of Pimlico guys. That’s been long disproved, but I just feel like over the years we’ve seen some horses be able to get this distance who couldn’t fully get the mile and a quarter. Maybe he’s in that group. It’s interesting. I mean, what you’re saying is very contrarian.

When I just looked at the come home times, it did not look to me like he was finishing with those horses, but none of them were finishing now. Yeah. I mean, I bet you, we need Sean Borman on the show. We wish we’d had him as a guest today to look at what the actual he’ll calculate the LPs on a buyer scale.

I’m going to guess that improbables was significantly slower just from having looked at the raw numbers, then. Say Tacitus. And I’m going to say the task at us was probably going to get up, uh, finishing number around what the race finished in about like a hundred. But I I’m sort of guessing this. I will, we’ll get Shawn on maybe on the next show or at least get permission to use his data and go over this in a more scientific way.

But it’s great that we have a difference of opinion, but here’s the funny thing I say, Oh, maybe that was it. I’m still not, I’m not like so convinced that I’m right. That I’m like excited to fade the horse. Really. I think he’s got to be used. No, for sure. I mean, I think that his, you know, game winner and Tacitus will probably have better come home times, I guess, visually and I could be wrong.

I’m interested to see, I don’t think that country house. Code of honor, war of will, um, or maximum security’s come home. Time is going to be that significantly higher than, uh, than a probable we’ll agree to disagree. And we’ll have an answer for you on the next show as to that one. And it’s probably just going to come down to semantics of what you mean by significant.

I mean, how many points on the buyer scale do you think is significant? Uh, significant to me is, is whatever number you think. Supports Pete’s idea that he doesn’t want to go that far? I don’t know. I mean, I want to see a number where, where, where these horses are coming home in a way, a hundred, five points in 87.

Oh, well, it’s not going to be that difference, but I think it’s going to be between five and 10 points, which I think is very significant at all. But here’s the thing though. And this is Sean and I’s biggest disagreement when it comes to LP. I respect his LP and I always, I mean, I asked him who, who has the best LP in the race?

What happens early in the race influences the LP? Of course. No, of course. But the thing is, is that improbable was in front of. Two or three of those horses that are, that I’m questioning right. Maximum security, but, but more, more, uh, more, uh, and, um, and code of a code of honor, w we’ll focus on this cup, we’ll get back to this conversation on the next show in a way that will hopefully help people to cash some tickets.

And with that in mind, let’s talk about war of will. I think something I said on the show got a little bit misunderstood. The other day I was agreeing with Pat Cummings about the idea how under the rules of category one war of will, nobody would have expected war of will to be put up over maximum security where I would have absolutely respected the decision to leave the result under those category.

One rules. However, That’s thinking as a steward in that situ hypothetical situation in real life. I think it’s much more difficult to tell what would have happened to war of will without that trouble happening. I’m not saying you couldn’t have put them up over maximum security, but it doesn’t mean he would have run a lot better.

In fact, I think it’s illogical to think that he wouldn’t have run a lot better dealing with what he had to deal with in the stretch, their war of Will’s very live in this Preakness to me, JK, where do you stand with him? Yeah. I mean, I mean, part of my, part of my, um, of my boy caught to not talk about what happened two weeks ago is gonna, is gonna make me kind of go in a different direction with this question.

Cause I’ve, I’ve officially boycotted the, uh, any conversations about disqualifications and category ones and twos and threes. And yeah, here’s what I, he ran huge from the rail. He ran huge. After, after what Frank McGaughey will tell you was a setback, you know, talking about how no horses run well in the Derby after setback, he went huge regardless of the trouble.

Um, now the trouble, I think probably moves them up a little bit. Just getting bumped in general and still bad run. He got bumped. He didn’t have as much run. I mean, to me, that’s a horse who I expect to run better this time, dry surface him breaking from the rail and someone told me. And I think it was actually Gary Young.

He said, I don’t know about the rain, but if Warren wheel breaks and he gets a lead, he gets the lead. He’s going to be hard to beat. And I kind of looked at him like really, but okay. And, and I agree with him now, he was sitting on a big race. They had him going in the right direction. And if he would have broke from the inside on a dry racetrack and got the, got the lead, I think he would have given maximum security all he wanted in this truck.

I thought he broke. Okay. What did you have? You had a note on that? No, but no, no, no, but I’m just saying he didn’t get to the, he didn’t like get to the front and, and set the pace. You know what I mean? It wasn’t like a clean break. He ended up in the two path, three path. I meant like, you know, always dreaming type trip rail to the top.

Yeah. There’s different. There’s different. That’s one of those terms can mean a lot of different things. Sometimes it means you would say. You’d put an off, slow on the horse. I didn’t think it was that, but they didn’t, they it’s not like they were, it seemed like they were sort of happy with their position early.

It’s not like one that I’d upgrade for not breaking well, but you’re just saying you feel like in a hypothetical world where the tactics were different. The result could have been different. It’s just one of those situations we talk about on the show all the time is where I don’t like a horse for reasons that I am passionate about.

And then he breaks through every single one of my reasons and runs well. He has my respect and I’ll look to play him moving forward. If the situation and the price is correct. I’m going to, you’re not going to like this, but I did hear an interesting bit of gossip. I don’t know if the person who passed this on to me would want to be credited or not.

So I’m not going to credit it, but I did think it was a little interesting. You know, we’ve talked a bunch about why GAF Leone didn’t claim foul. In that situation. And my initial thing was maybe he thinks services a potential future client. I feel like that’s sort of been dispelled that the idea that he hadn’t ridden a horse for him for two years, there was the interesting idea that somebody put forth this weekend that.

Science has a reputation as a very aggressive rider. And that may be GAF Leone riding on the same circuit for the difference between eighth and seventh, didn’t want to risk making him very angry. This is just racetrack gossip. It’s not rooted in any reporting or anything. I just thought it was an interesting idea worth just throwing out there into the world.

I do think. A lot of people would have had less problems with the DEQ. Had the stewards lit the lamp themselves, or had it been GAF Leone who claimed anyway, we’re not going to go down this rabbit hole, but I thought that was interesting enough to pass along. I hope you don’t mind hearing it. JK look, there’s there’s 27 amendments and I’m going to kind of do a combination of the first and the fifth freedom of press the fifth.

Also, I’m going to, I’m going to plead the fifth here and, and not answer any more questions as, as it pertains to this disqualification. And the, and the, the details that come along with it. Fair enough. More storylines in the Preakness as well. The Brad Cox runners, you’re going to have to hear from Marshall Graham a little bit later this week, warriors charge he’s been on before the last two warriors charged races.

They’ve both worked out pretty well. For our friends at 10 strike, we’re going to keep that street going. I think the horses live in the race JK. Haven’t obviously properly handicapped that with the paper in front of me yet. We’ll do that after they draw on Wednesday. But what’s your gut about him? I liked the horse, right?

I, uh, I, uh, it was a cheeky move to pick them in our, in our triple crown draft that thinking that there was a possibility he would show up here and. And, uh, and that was not that’s before I knew that he wasn’t nominated and they were going to have to supplement the horse. If I’d have known that I would have assumed that they weren’t going to do that.

But with the race coming up wide open with an opportunity to run in a classic race, uh, and, and get another grade one for, for the purple and the purple and black of 10 strike. I thought I made a ton of sense. The horse is fast. Um, now he’s probably not as seasoned as these, he hasn’t been tested like these he’s tactical, he’ll be forwardly placed.

Um, I believe Javier, Castillano, what’s wrong with that? You know, look, if I’m probable, if you’re right about him, probably he doesn’t want the distance. If Warrah will, was, did a little bit too much running. Um, our buddy Chris pivotal brought up a great point that, that running on that racetrack, roughly run race mile and a quarter.

All those things that went on there. Uh, those aren’t exactly the horses that he feels comfortable betting out of it feeling that they’re going to be a little bit behind and, and, uh, are not behind, but behind it from like a, you know, an energy standpoint based on, on what, what they experienced a couple of weeks ago, uh, these new shooters make sense, always mining orders charge, uh, are two that come to mind.

So, um, I’ll be rooting for sure, for him to win, but I’ll also be betting a little bit that he’ll run well. Uh, you know, I’ll have some, I’ll have some situations where, where he’ll be involved. He’s a, he’s a B type horse for me. He’s probably not a horse that I would lock in up top with, with, with horses, like improbable in there.

But I think he’s a very talented horse and I’m excited to watch him run on Saturday. We’ll talk about win-win win. And then we’re going to leave the rest of our analysis to the late week show. After we have PPS in front of you, where are you with win-win wins? You know, actually I think he ran pretty good.

He split the field finished 10th. If you look at it, you know, look like, like everyone said, everyone’s been talking about this, this trouble. You kind of miss the things that were happening behind it. And when, when, when was far back. Kind of in a tough spot and you’ll notice that grey magician pops out right in front of him.

He asked the steady and then it’s like, you know, the job kind of wraps up on him for a second. Then he’s like, all right, let’s get him back involved in this race a little bit. He starts to run and then he kind of gets tightened up a little bit, like right inside or outside the 16th pole and kind of gets wrapped up on again.

And then was kind of, you know, just clear everyone else. Wasn’t going to gain any more position if you liked them going into the race. I don’t see any problem. Uh, with him here. I am not crazy about them on top, just from that style of having to come from off of it. And, but he’s definitely one that I think you can get a piece and if it falls apart, for some reason, um, he’s definitely one that can win.

But what we see with these triple crown races is they usually go opposite of what the one before them went. And the pace was really fast in the last one and the Derby. So you’d think that typically it will be a little bit slower in the Preakness. Um, the hopes are that set the pace and the Derby aren’t going to be in the Preakness maximum security.

Um, so we’ll see what happens, but, uh, ease usable. But nothing that I’m ready to cut in line to Tibet on. He’s an include for me as well, if only breaking from that impossible post. And he did have trouble getting out of there, which in a race like that, I feel like is all the trouble you need to keep me keep on my radar in terms of a potential bet back, I do want to correct.

The earliest numbers were very fast in the Derby, but time for did have the race slowing down significantly in the middle. So who knows, but I guess. Your point about the difference in Preakness and Derby pace has to do with perception more than reality. If it’s perceived that it was fast, maybe that means the jockeys will be more likely to go slower though.

I think it’s up in the air completely, just because we have such a different complexion of the field. Be really interesting to see. What the time form pays projector has to say and what our own instincts have to say. When we really sit down with screen pen, paper, whatever we’re using these days and actually handicap the race.

And that is going to be largely the topic of the next podcast. So JK, I’m doing this thing Wednesday night. At the Mount Washington Tavern, they’ll probably be an ad for it at the beginning or end of the show. Hey, maybe both. So I hope I don’t make people, uh, too crazy having to hear the pitch again, but I’m hoping you have a chance to come, going to be a lot of fun going over some of the big races on the weekend with Gabby GoDaddy and Sean to go two of our favorites, any chance you’re going to make it to Baltimore.

You know, honestly, like as we’re speaking, if there’s a possibility that I could leave Wednesday, get there and then come back home Thursday morning, there’s a possum bility that I can make it happen. Be fun to have you. And I don’t know, would you then be able to come back for the race itself? Uh, it’s not that often we have such a terrific partner, like 10 strike racing with a horse in the actual Preakness.

No, I’d love to, I’m going to have Austin with me, uh, this weekend. So that could be a little bit tough. Uh, you know, getting up at Pimlico, they don’t have a special, unfortunately I think they have other monsters running around the infield that I like to get big to steer clear. Oh my God, that’s the best line of the show JK.

It was a, it was an up and down broadcast. We had to edit a few times on this one. Hopefully you won’t have been able to tell if you’re listening at home. I really want to see folks out on Wednesday night. That’s going to be a lot of fun. I think I’m going to do something silly where I I’ll stay over Wednesday night.

Then I think I got to come back to New York for a couple of days, but I’m going to go back down for Saturday. Can’t miss a chance to hang out with our friends and we’ll do things at a little bit different order. I’ll thank 10 strike racing and the thoroughbred retirement foundation first. I’ll thank you.

J K second. Most of all, I want to thank all of you, the listeners, especially those of you who’ve been asking for ways you can help. Again, I’ll be putting up a blog post about that, and I just got to point out one more time. No obligation. But if you want to help, there are ways you can help. And we will tell you some ways to do that should be fun.

This show has been a production of in the money media and the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. You went all your photos.

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2 comments
  • Hypothesis (aka my opinion): There are no horses left that actually “want” more than 9 furlongs. The reason why the Met Mile, for instance, is the most exciting race (same may be said of the BC Mile – if not now, then soon) is that so few horses excel at distances longer than a mile. Each successive year’s Derby field makes this more and more apparent. The 1973 Derby field (13 horses, BTW) won more GS against open company than the entire fields of all Derbies since 2000. Horses bred for the TC are short and fragile. While track records fall at short distances almost monthly, records for races > 9 furlongs have remained for literally decades. Breeding? Lasix/drugs (in that they hide infirmities/shortcomings that are subsequently bred into progeny)? Any thoughts?

    • Doesn’t sound wrong but perhaps overstated to say “no horses left.” Certainly many fewer. The emphasis on speed and precocity and speed, which makes perfect economic sense, comes at a price.

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