There are three graded stakes plus the historic Queen’s Plate on Saturday at Woodbine and PTF is here with a pair of special guests to tell you what you need to know. First up, NHC champ Scott Coles drops by to give his thoughts on what it’s like to be King plus views on the King Edward, Dance Smartly, Highlander, and the Queen’s Plate itself.
Next up, Dawn Lupul of Woodbine gives her views on the big race as well as a spot play on a Pick Three that includes two of the Graded stakes. Plus, she gives PTF some fashion advice.
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
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Your listening to the, in the money players podcast.
Yeah. Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is your special Queen’s plate day edition steaks Laden card North of the border. I will be making the journey up if you see me out there at Woodbine on Saturday, and you’re a listener, please come and say hello. Heck even if you’re not a listener, just come say hi, I’m a sociable guy.
It’s going to be fun. Monday a little crazy to be making another international trip. So close to the Royal Ascot trip of last week, but Woodbine obviously important friends of the podcast are partners. And this just seemed like too good of a card and too good of an opportunity to pass up, to have a couple of special guests over the course of the next 45 minutes or so.
And we’re going to start it off with a familiar voice. He actually. He has been on this show, I think, but the last time he was on was on the, in the money show, you know him from, Oh, of course he was on after his big win. I’m about to describe he was on this show after his big win this year at the national handicapping, excuse me, national HorsePlayers championship.
I’m talking about our friend Scott Coles. How are you today, Scott? I’m doing great. And I call it the national handicapping championship every time too. I just don’t, I can’t get it out of my head. And you’re new to this. Like you should, you should be able to make the adjustment. And I do think in a lot of ways, HorsePlayers is the better name.
It’s not a knock on the name. It’s just, you know, we were indoctrinated for so long, I guess. Did your days of paying attention to this go beyond the time that you were playing in it? I can’t, I can’t remember. Yeah, I, uh, I started trying to qualify at the very end of 2016 and did like a crash session and then, um, or maybe 2017.
Um, but that, I can’t remember if it was called that last time. Maybe I just always thought it was called that no, it’s new. The HorsePlayers name. I think this was maybe the second year. So anyway, it’s, it’s understandable. How has life band, is it good to be King it’s? Uh, it’s been fun. It’s been fun for sure.
I, uh, Had a lot of stuff going on in my personal life. So I haven’t played as many tournaments as a I’d wanted to, but, um, haven’t got a live alive to a lot of cash vetting in the triple crown. And I just can’t figure the three-year-olds out. The rest of the days are going great, but I just, man, I cannot figure out.
Not that it’s been easy, but it’s, sir, Winston really, uh, really ruined the, what would have been an Epic day for me. Yeah, me I’m in the exact same boat as you. And you know, you say the three-year-olds have been confusing. You get on the bus. My friend, it’s a, it’s been a vexing and confusing year. I was talking to Sean Clancy for the, in the ring show yesterday.
And that’s one of his great hopes for Saratoga that somebody will step up and create some clarity in this division. We will see it as far as you, if you had to guess, do you, who do you think is going to emerge from this division as the clear leader, will it be a rebound for maximum security? Will Omaha beach come back and accept that mantle a horse like code of honor.
You could see improving as the year goes on. Who’s your guess as to the three-year-old that we’ll be talking about come September and beyond. And I, I, I hope it’s it’s Omaha beach because I mean, that, that is, that was my Derby. It felt easy at that time. And then I got sucked into the whole improbable mess and I just couldn’t get it off.
I loved him probable, but I, I liked Oman beach more and it would’ve made my life a lot easier that horse stayed healthy. So I’m hoping that horse comes back. Cause I, I did think that that was the clear-cut best source. Um, man, I, I don’t know. Maximum security looked good. I think we’ll talk about it a little bit later in one of the Woodbine races, I’m kind of possibly going to bring that up, but the, uh, the horse that he just lost, it was a King for a day King for a day.
Yeah. I came for a day. Looked, looked good. So maybe that wasn’t quite the buyer came back. Okay. So maybe it wasn’t. Maybe it wasn’t really that big of a disappointment, but, um, and it has just been so tough for me to figure out. I mean, I still think there’s, there’ll be racist for tests and us as well. I mean that, we’re still, it broke my heart broke my heart that day, but I mean, it wasn’t the, it wasn’t the easiest trip, certainly not where you wanted to be on the track.
So you’re talking about in the Derby and that, I mean, you could say the same thing I think about either, either trip either the Derby or the, or the Belmont where you’re talking about the Belmont there. Certainly, um, yeah, I was just more on them, on the Belmont and alive and both the cross vote over the cross country or cross stakes, pick six and then the real pick six.
And I had a, at least a $20 pick four to them. I just because I liked hog Creek hustle a lot. So I just, that day was just lining up to be huge. I was in, um, Second or third going into the Belmont in, uh, in the big $75,000 horse tourneys tournament. I mean, everything. Just crushed by, uh, people having, sir Winston’s against me.
Oh my God. Goodness. Uh, it’s been, uh, it’s been an amazing, uh, it’s been a roller coaster ride. I do feel bad for leaving tasks at us out of my three-year-olds who could step up. Cause boy, he sure has that traversy feel as well and maybe gets beat. In the dandy and comes back at a square price and wins the Travers.
That’s my vision in my head of how we’re going to be partying. Are you going, you get up to Saratoga this year. Will you be playing in their contests and around to hang out, maybe participate in a seminar, something up there? I know a lot of people are interested in have been impressed with you and your appearances in the media, and want to get a chance to meet you in person.
Oh, that’s nice of you to say I, uh, I, I would actually love to get up there because I’ve never been. Um, so I am trying to work that out. There’s a few different things I’m looking at around that time. Um, because I also want to get to Del Mar I’ve never been to Del Mar either. And I was actually born in San Diego and still never been to that racetrack.
I just, I, uh, I want to do both. I’m trying to, I’m trying to work that out, but, um, Saratoga is definitely, it’s definitely a hope, hope of mine to get up there for that, for sure. You can theoretically do the double, the Del Mar contest early. And then of course, the two days at Saratoga, the Friday, Saturday, a four star Dave weekend.
And Hey, if it helps at all, I can probably find some couch space. I think Jonathan is actually getting adult accommodations this year. Oh, wow. Um, I, I appreciate that. Um, the easiest way for me to go on all these is to, uh, have Courtney and my girlfriend travel with me because she, um, has friends in a lot of these spaces too.
So I’m hoping we can find some accommodations and get out there. But I also, I have a wedding and birthday parties and all sorts of everything that summer brings every year. So it’s just, we will, we will see what I can do, but at least I’m a centrally located in between the two. So hopefully I can.
Hopefully I can get to both without too much trouble. I like that idea. And I always complain about the people who get married on the, on the triple crown days, the breeders’ cup day. So I’m going to go ahead. You know what I’m going to say. If you have to get married during Saratoga, this new opening weekend, that wasn’t the historic one.
Okay. I’ll give you that. If you got to get married on, on July 12th, but leave us those other six Saturdays, let’s put those in the, uh, let’s put those in the lockout dates, friends and family for getting married. You can get married and die. Just don’t do it during the meet, the triple crown or the breeders’ cup.
And we’ll be, I agree. And I’ve got one first Saturday in August, and then that first weekend I’ve got the. I’m actually going to make clips word at Arlington on Saturday, July 13th. So that’ll be a fun day. So I’ll, I’ll have to be there for that. I w I would hope if you don’t show up for that, people are going to be pretty disappointed.
Yeah, I would, uh, I would think that would be the wrong thing to do so that that’ll be a fun day and they’ve got their tournament going on and I have, uh, I have a bunch of people. Coming out. I remember at one point you said you might be able to make it back, but I was going to try, you’re just tied up in Saratoga.
Okay. It looks like I’m going to, I can’t nounce anything officially yet, but it looks like I’m going to have work responsibilities in Saratoga. Every. Friday Saturday, Sunday. So I can’t, I can’t miss the first one. You know what I, I do. I did love Arlington and I want to get back and it’s a good segue to the next question I wanted to ask you, which is about betting synthetic specifically you betting Woodbine.
Um, do you find there’s commonality between the synthetic handicapping at Arlington and at Woodbine? That’s the first question that I have a follow-up.
Yeah. I, I only finish this tough. I mean, there’s only a few days where I try to throw out a lot of my memories from a lot of the races that are only to me because some of the horses are just so bad that I just don’t know if everything holds true, but I mean, obviously late pace and turf similarities come up a lot.
And pedigrees that, that handle both turf and synthetic often are. The best, but there are days where you’ll, you’ll find, you’ll still find speed biases of these tracks and even golden gate as well. Um, where I I’ve noticed a few different times where you just still want to be near the front, but I feel like more times than not late pace ratings in class and whatnot do seem to overweigh, um, the other, the other factor.
So it’s cheap speed. Doesn’t win quite as much as far as I can see, but, um, I most of the year, I try to play dirt and turf and avoid synthetic. It is its own animal, but a big day, like this, a big race like Queen’s plate, I think should draw folks in at least to, to take a look. And I think that’s a smart idea.
Don’t discount the idea of bias. We’ve seen that at Woodbine too, that the track will be playing different ways at different times, and it pays to pay attention. Usually a Ron gear kink and his analysis in the DRF is very good at pointing out. The the good rail days and the dead rail day. So even if you haven’t been playing a place like Woodbine, religiously, you can get some real clues listening.
Well, not so much listening, but reading his analysis and trying to get some of those determinations from him. But I can’t believe you’re questioning yourself as an Arlington synthetic handicapper. I mean, the day w we were there, we hit the pick six full stop. Don’t add anything else onto the rest of that time.
We, we did. We, we crushed it that day. Um, it’s just, yeah. You know, I don’t, I don’t want to get cocky about it. I’ve had plenty of days where at Arlington where I just can’t explain half the verses the win and for those who, for those who miss that call back joke, we hit the pick six and lost money. But anyway, we don’t need to worry about that part.
Yeah. Yeah. Um, not, uh, not relevant, who cares about where we are alive to the pool. And we had the hope that horse looks second. So. We got to thrill. It was actually, it was actually a close call and just a great day out. And I do look forward to getting back to Arlington. And you talk about the quality of racing at the moment.
Do you think that, that the law change with the sports betting coming in? I mean, I didn’t prep you for this question, so I apologize for that, but is your gut that that could lead to a better quality of racing in the future? Perhaps a little bit of a Renaissance. Of Arlington. I mean, Chicago used to be a great hub of racing and that’s part of why I think there there’s so many good horse players that come out of there is what that place was.
Could it be that way again? Do you think? I, I hope so. Um, I mean, people that know those things more than I do seem the buzz seems to be that it’s a possibility and that would be great because Arlington outside of. Outside of one usher that I don’t remember, the name of is a fantastic place. And what about that guy?
Yeah, that was ridiculous. But save that for another time, because I don’t, I don’t want to tarnish what a great day that Matt Miller put together for us and how fun it was. But man, that goes just out of his mind. It’s it’s not you get the, you get the, I mean, it’s, it’s just sort of interesting, 99% VIP treatment, 1%, the old bum’s rush, but these things happen.
And, and I, I had actually a proud to say, The younger me would have carried that grudge around. I’d actually forgotten about it until you mentioned it. And I don’t think, I don’t think Matt feels bad. He knows. He knows what a great, what a great outing that was and how much fun it was to introduce this.
You know, we basically put together this group of people who didn’t necessarily really know each other. And then everybody got along folks in different corners of the Chicago horseplaying community. And, you know, that’s one of the things in my life. I really enjoy. I repeat some of these phrases a lot. I love, uh, I love turning negatives into positives and I love introducing the wrong people to the wrong people and seeing what may hem and Susan.
And we got some that day. Oh yeah, it was great. I had never met any of them except for you. And, um, man, everybody was, everyone was a blast and, um, cause even, even Garrett was there for a while. I’d never met him. And he’s obviously one of the top handicappers that I’ve always heard and read about. And.
Meeting Matt and meeting drew. And, um, obviously meeting grant who came to dinner with us as well. And knowing, knowing who actually makes the lines there. That was a unique experience. I’d never talked to a line maker before and, um, I. I apologize to the other couple of guys that were there with us for a while.
I don’t remember exactly, but everybody there was so nice and it was just a really fun day. It’s a great horseplaying community and hopefully the racing itself will go stronger and just sort of galvanize things out there. That’s our hope for the future. Anyway, we’ll see what happens. All right. I don’t have you for too much longer, so it’s time to start diving into these races.
And the first one we’re going to talk about, I’m just going to have you talk about the graded stakes and we’ll talk about the big one, the Queen’s plate. And then at the end of the show, we’ll bring in another guest to talk about the card a little bit more generally, but we’ll start with race six, the King Edward, number two, synchrony did everything but win last time at Monmouth against that impressive Chad Brown winner in Almanar.
Two times prior to that ran against bricks and mortar. Let’s just say, he’s really happy that Chad Brown doesn’t have a runner in here. And I just had a lot of trouble looking past Scott Coles, your thoughts. So, yeah, I would, synchrony costs me a lot of money in a double. I was really hoping he could be bricks and mortar on Derby day, but, um, bricks and mortar is just so good right now.
And. you know, Bennett, classy horse, not, I don’t know, has had, I’d have to look back more. I don’t think Hellman has had all that much success against the other words, but it’s just a very classy horse and been in a lot of big races. So. And also that race, if you watch that replay in the stretch run, I mean, yeah, it was kind of goofy.
Elma was just floating out, floating out, floating out in synchrony. We just kept having to move. At least it looked like to me move sideways. Um, so I, I can’t fault them for that. Um, I’m going to use synchrony the most. There’s no doubt about that, but I am interested in Mr. Ritz. Um, I love second start as a four year old.
I love the horses one at the distance. And if you’re going to beat synchrony, I think doing it at a mile with a projected slow pace, the time form has projected for this race right now is the time to do it. Um, if synchrony doesn’t decide to be forward, they’ve kind of mixed up how they’ve written it. I think McCarthy kind of took them a little bit closer in the last race, but outside of that, the horse has been more mid-pack closer type, um, and a lot of the races.
So if they let. Mr Ritz, get away a little bit. I think it could be interesting. Um, there’s other cheap speed in here that could possibly ruin that for Mr. Ritz, but I think Mr. Ritz has a pace advantage and I love up and coming four year olds. Second start as a four year old, um, is interesting, um, to me, but yeah, obviously synchrony lays over the sealed.
Class-wise the other interesting race. It was Crohn’s honor. And I don’t know how to say the siblings name. MAs MAs MAs I dunno, closed into a slow pace. So it’s, it’s a kind of interesting, the buyers came back. Okay. But, um, I’m going to try a little bit of Mr. Ritz and mostly synchrony in this way. I used to work in a Maha’s Pennsylvania.
I didn’t have to go very often, but there’s a publisher called Rodale press and I was a freelance editor for them for a while. And, uh, for all I know that’s what that one is, uh, is named after. Um, and I’m pretty sure that’s the one I was there so much, but I, I’m not a hundred percent sure that it’s not emails or whatever, but I always thought it was a mess.
And, uh, I think that’s a good one to go with. You mentioned that developing. Four year old angle with Mr. Ritz. I want you to pause on that. Cause that seems like a good moment to maybe impart something to listeners when you’re looking at the bear form of a race, a lot of times you think, okay, is this horse likely to run the same figure again?
A were a slightly worse figure, again, a slightly better figure again. Why is it that that second time four-year-old particularly makes you think that the horse is going to run better? Oh, I just really liked second, second off the layoff. I mean, Ben was off since October ran again in may. I mean, I feel like, especially when you’ve seen it in the past where the horse ran its debut then came back in may of 2018, about five months later and improved about 10 points on a second outing.
If you see a horse in the past that has improved second off the layoff, if you have a trainer, um, that does well. Second, the layout, which it says I use the time for ratings a lot for that. And sometimes the percentages. So like for Carol, the trainer of Mr. Ritz, you have persons layout rating of 76 seconds slid off 86.
So you have, um, you have all these things going for you and you have a horse that in most people’s opinions, Are never better than they are four years old. Um, I mean, you have all those factors going for you that if they’re going to peak or if they’re going to freak, I think early as a four-year-old, especially if their number comes back competitive or better than they ran as a three-year-old, I just, I’m always on the look.
Um, for a horse like that. And I think that helped me on Derby day as well. I think that was my reasoning for wanting to use Mitchell road, um, and one of the turf races against the older and then in flexibility and horses like that. So it’s just an angle that I pay attention to because you have to get creative in this game and synchrony.
As a six year old, you’ve probably seen close to that as best figure that they’re going to put up. But Mr. Ritz, I think, and even Carolyn’s honor, both four-year-olds improving, could possibly post a larger number that can compete in this. I think the one way they talk about it overseas is the difference between a horse who’s.
Still progressive. We haven’t seen their best there’s reasons to improve. And I suppose you could, and it’s not really my opinion in this race because I do like synchrony, but the idea that synchrony is comparatively exposed, we know how good synchrony is. It’s an interesting way of looking at the world in a way where maybe you can.
Find an opportunity to Zig where others are, zagging based on your enthusiasm. I do think Mr. Ritz will end up on a, on at least a saver ticket for me. You talked about using time form, and that’s a really smart way of using the time form trainer figures. I also know you’re a stats race lens user. You’ve talked before about how you use the angles on there.
Do you use stats, race lends to dive into these, these type of trainer trends as well? For sure. And I, and I really liked their wind probability that, that they provide, um, the, which they favor synchrony. Um, I save angles and if any angles, no major angles showed up for me. I’m in this spot, but there are, I mean, a couple of slight knocks against.
Against the others that came up as my saved angles. And there, there aren’t any, they came up for Mr. Rich, which is sometimes a good thing, because if you can’t, you know, I don’t for people that aren’t familiar, they, they let up green. If they’re, if they’re a strong, positive angle based on the settings you have, or they light up dark red, if there’s a, there’s a major negative, and then there’s some, in-between, that’ll light up red, then you just have to read them.
But being able to save angles and especially if it’s a. I don’t have as many saved for Woodbine specific because I only play it on major days like this or steaks stays. Um, but for tracks that you do, you can have specific angles trade for every trainer, for every jockey, for things that you know, that you’re going to see a lot and it helps, uh, it helps a great deal.
I do have one that popped up a little bit later that we’ll talk about for time form that are for stats that will help, but, um, stats is a really cool tool. You just. You just have to be willing to put the time in and back, do your back testing, pull the angles you want throughout the ones you don’t just so it’s not information overload boat, man.
When those angles pop up, it really helps. Especially when you’re in tournaments where things are moving fast and you need, or if you need to. Change a play because someone scratched or something like that. I mean, with all the up-to-date information and the wind probabilities and the different things you can do with it, it’s becoming one of my favorite things to use.
Very cool. At one of these days, we’re going to get that webinar done that we were talking about doing with them as well. We’ll uh, this, this conversation will prompt me to maybe do something about that. It’s just been, I’ve been running around like a chicken with my head cut off, but that’s been on the to-do list forever.
All right. Let’s move on to race eight. It’s the dance smartly. Uh, I am uncreative today. Scott, I’ll tell you, number one, Holy Halena, all kinds of trouble versus Homer wreak. Last time in the New York, stuck behind the slow pace rank, not looking comfortable in there. Checked, ran on pretty well. Anyway. I’d like to see a more positive ride this time under Castillano, but the fact remains that there’s just not really a lot of pace here again.
Besides number four, Starship Jubilee. Who? I think a lot of people might get a little knee jerk against blowing the three link lead last time, but I still think Starship Jubilee finished pretty well on the clock and secret message. The winner was just better that day with this favorable setup. I think I give slight preference to Starship Jubilee.
These were the two I would kept getting drawn to. Is it as easy as that? Or is there something more creative here? Um, that’s it, unless you have, um, some kind of expert opinion on your. Kind of the number eight. And that was my only question for you is I like to defer to you on the overseas form. Um, other than that, I don’t let only see yeah.
Star ships Jubilee just seems to have a pace advantage in this race. And that’s kind of another thing that you, I really liked to use time for him for, and time form shows the horse kind of loose. And if that happens, the only drawback I have there is, uh, it seems like. Starship Jubilee likes to sit in like more of a stocking position, but, and has never actually gone gait the wire.
But if they just let start for Jubilee to go, I mean, it’s, it’s just going to be tough for Holy Halena coming from where Holy land is going to have to come from. I think the staff’s race lands also has one of my light up angles for this and it’s green and it says highest layer. It’s one that has a very high success rate because its highest late pace reading.
In turf routes and is also the projected leader. Now, I’m not really sure why they have him or her as the highest late pace rating. That’s a little confusing to me because I feel like Holy Helene is, could have a bigger kick, but man, it just seems like Starship. Julia has every advantage in this race and it was second off the layoff and just.
Just tactically just seems like it’s going to be tough. Holy Elena. But I’m going to use them both just a little bit, little bit more starts with Jubilee, unless you’ve got something special for me with Rakim. I love the eight. I think it’s tough. I mean, it’s interesting, right? Cause we have a Gustin stables here, George Strawbridge.
Who’s now using our buddy Jonathan Thomas, which is just really notable and cool. Jonathan Thomas showed as well. When it came to a Catholic boy that he’s not going to have any problem, getting one ready to fire on off a big layoff and on a high profile day. I trust him to have the horse ready. I was worried in terms of the form.
Didn’t look super strong. And I was thinking, coming from a German bread, coming from French races that might just be stuck in behind. I mean, you can definitely make a case. For rock, my love based on, I mean, really connections alone. I was looking at the seven to two morning line and thinking, okay, I want to watch one.
It’s probably not going to be a favorable situation. There’s another closer. I almost have to bet and Holy Halena, but I wouldn’t blame anybody for including, but I wouldn’t be keying. I’ve just too many. Open questions at this point, but it is a, I’m glad, I’m glad you mentioned rock my love, cause it’s a situation worth paying attention to, and certainly that’ll be interesting to see if the Strawbridge Augusta and Jonathan Thomas partnership ends up, uh, ends up blossoming.
Uh, shepherd used to always, he was always with, uh, Uh, it was always with Jonathan Shepherd, those horses, and then Graham motion got into the act. And now it’s interesting to see, uh, T JT with some of those runners as well. So I’m not, yeah, I think it used, but don’t key is my, as my flaky, uh, my flaky assessment of rockmelon.
I love science fair and Flavian prat. And first time as a four year old, I mean, flavor and seems to get the best out of horses, especially when they make the switch. So that that’s interesting as well, but I just was. Always interested to hear your opinion on that and Catholic boys, favorite horse. Oh, nice.
Hands down. So, um, that is, that’s really cool that he’s getting some, some other horses in some respect because he’s. He’s done such a good job with that. He really has. I mean, it’s so, so impressive to see, you know, dirt turf doesn’t seem to matter. We’ll have him on soon to, uh, update us about that one and, and maybe talk about this, a budding partnership with Augusta as well.
It’s pretty, it’s pretty interesting stuff. So yeah, I wish I had anything create creative there, but you know, in the pics you can get away with, sometimes you can get away with using the first three choices. You can be narrow enough or have enough of an opinion elsewhere. Uh, I’m not, I’m not opposed to the idea of looking at the double pool heading into that race.
Seeing if there are any surprises in the bedding and trying to wait that’s accordingly and get alive going forward, especially because. You know, I can get very, I can get very skinny in the other two legs. And the one that would pay out that pick three is the grade one Highlander or race, which of course just tickles me to talk about.
I have a picture of last year’s winner long on value. Who I was very fortunate to be involved with in a very small way. Didn’t make it to Queen’s plate last year to watch that big win didn’t want the fight with Susan. Basically, we were at a family vacation thing going on. We were out in Maine and I had the opportunity to maybe push and try to make it there.
And I said, eh, that’s all right. We’ll see him. He’ll do well. And we’ll go see him in the breeders cup. Gather those rosebuds while you may listeners never, never have thoughts like that. Yeah. But anyway, it was, it did spare me a, it would have been fun to be there and I think it was JKS birthday too, but it, it, uh, it all worked out for long on value and funny enough this year, not a horse that I have anything to do with, but another, uh, another close friend has one running here and I’m talking about caribou club.
Made a really nice move back on new year’s day into what Rob dove. One of the top 10 pro punters in the UK today calls the hot zone of the race and ended up getting the job done there. Hasn’t been seen since, but working steadily at Fairhill very hard to imagine. Craig, Berneke making the decision to send him up to Ontario.
If he wasn’t ready to fire. A big one. Um, I think caribou is going to be tough to beat. I think I’m playing a very narrow pick and we’ll see what happens here. I, that that’s as a that’s as much as I, as much as I have at this point. What do you think about this one? How are we going to get paid in here in this pick three in a way that’s maybe a little more, uh, I just, I don’t have anything here.
I care about clubs just seems like a big standout in this race to me. And isn’t, Bluepoint the horse that just runs. One twice in one week and ask out somehow. Yes, he did. He won group ones on the Tuesday and the Saturday. It was a great, it was a great thing to say. Um, yes. So you were saying about blue point.
I that, I mean, that’s the only, that’s the horse that won that last race and obviously it just, the horses didn’t yeah. You said fired into a hot pays. I didn’t really even get to see it, but I mean, everything else, the form. Before that is just so much better than, than everyone else here. And I, I just, I mean, there’s horses at the improvement angles, I think tricks to do could improve, but I mean, the horses has never, I mean, to go from a a hundred K stakes to a grade one is, uh, something I don’t, I don’t like to do.
I just don’t see any class in here at all that can, they can keep up. I mean, white flag, I guess if. Caribou club doesn’t fire. I mean, white flag B disco partner to back was a really good Orison, um, in, uh, at this distance. But, uh, and caribou club is only ran up. This distance once was really good at six and a half and seven and longer.
I mean, the horses are so talented. I just, if I’m going to take a shot, it’ll be. The interesting thing you can do at Woodbine is, is press your opinions for however much you want. But if you want to play saver, tickets are a lot cheaper here because you can play 27 increments. So you really want to try to beat with a couple of 20 seconds, 27 savers and just press.
Caribou club. That’s what I’ll be doing. But most of my plays got to go through that worst to make a double clarification. So the race where you made the move into the, into the teeth of the race that I just thought was visually impressive was the new year’s race at Santa’s not last time. It may Dawn with which was the form to blue point where I was just up.
I was just sort of putting a line through the Maidan race. Basically because, you know, you’re traveling halfway across the world and not all horses agree within an I typically don’t like to exercise race without a particular reason, but I don’t know. I think that going to Dubai is, is enough reason. But the other thing I need to clarify is there is no pick three connecting the King Edward.
So there there’s a maiden race in between. So I am going to have to get a little bit cheeky with my, um, With my non, uh, clever non particularly clever opinions in here. But Hey, I I’ve learned a long time ago. I’d rather give you a shorter price horse that I like then just reach for something that is, is a maybe, you know, if we’re sitting there at the track and we’re talking.
And there’s a price play that comes up and I can see it at that point. And I see what it is on the board and I can say, okay, that’s value, but I’d rather not just guess at value on horses. I don’t like, I’d rather just give the horse. I like that. It definitely leads to JK and I giving out, you know, a lot of favorites at times, but in this case, I’m just going to stick to it.
Now you don’t have a ton of time left, so I want to get your thoughts on the big race of the day. I mean, they’re all big races, but the Queen’s plate, the Canadian Derby essentially. And. This is another one where I like one, a little bit short in the odd spectrum in AVS flatter though. The post certainly makes me at least think twice about that.
I’m going to let you go first here and, uh, and hear your thoughts on this year’s Queen’s plate. Um, it’s interesting. I, I don’t. I don’t know that I can really, I’m going to try to rely on two horses. I’m going to use abies flatter, but at the 14 and at the five to do morning line and Javier Castellano. I just think that the price you’re going to get, um, with all the other short horses I’m going to be playing is a little concerning.
Um, I, one bad boy seems to have a pace advantage and office looks like a day where. You know, you’re no one, no one’s hanging out on the front end. Then I might switch, switch my tune. But I think one bad boy is very interesting. Tried synthetic for the first time at golden gate. And put away kingly, who I think is actually a pretty good horse, especially on synthetic and just couldn’t hang, hold off.
Visiting who was the, who was closing? Um, improving figures takes the blinkers off. And I just think Flavin Pratt is a really good writer and he’s going to have options from down there. Whereas a lot of the other top horses are sky wires. The 10 80 side of the 14 are going to be out wide and you gonna have to, you know, deal with some ground loss.
Um, so I just think. One bad boy didn’t even have that great of a trip. Last race either, um, was kind of caught wide and had like a goofy start and then went up and just sat right on kingly and pretty much put the horse away. So I, I just, the other one I’m interested in as I kind of referenced earlier, his tone broke because the horse, the tone broke, just lost.
It was King for a day. Um, but there’s no synthetic form. So. Um, I went to pull it up and it looks decent on if you take the ratings, synthetic sprints of an 88 synthetic routes of an 83 on time form, which are better than. The dirt numbers that this horse has. So there’s reason to believe that Tom Brook will take to the surface.
And if Tom Brook does and one bad boy, doesn’t get away with an easy lead. Um, if someone like federal law or someone like that, just presses one bad boy so much where you can’t close. I mean, I think Tom Brooks uneasy easy. For an interesting horse coming from way back. Um, I’ll be using AB sweater and Sapphire as BS, probably, but I’m going to try to get away with tone broken one bad boy, to try to get a little bit of value into this.
I’ll give you one for the verticals and it’s kind of goofy, but it’s just a horse who I think is developing the right way and just looks visually, um, to me like one, who’s going to appreciate more ground. He’s a macho man. Who should be a very, very big price, I think could run a lot better than the odds with sort of a cleaner getaway and the finish that he’s shown and just the development pattern under the radar and should be under the radar, just a Justin allowance winner, but likes it locally.
And I, again, I think the distance we’ll, we’ll, we’ll be a friend of this one. So, uh, just a little bit of a nod for the other Josie Carol runner. Um, before we complete our discussions, it’s about time for you to go. You have a closing thought before I let you get back to work and, and thank you. I don’t know.
I just appreciate you having me on and I hope to get up and see it in Saratoga, or I’ll try to work that out. Um, but, uh, I will, uh, That we’ll be paying attention to Woodbine. Now a lot more than I would have been since you had me do this. So that’s, uh, hopefully we, uh, we all make a little bit of money on, uh, on some of these fixed from your mouth to God’s ears.
We’re following your chase to become the first ever two time NHC champion. Scott Coles. Thank you for taking time to join us today. Of course. Thanks for having me. If you have a great day, and now I’d like to welcome back to the, in the money players podcast for our Queen’s plate day special. Old friend of the show, Woodbine analyst, Don loophole, Don, how are you doing today?
I’m doing extremely well, even though you just called me over old friend of the show is not the same thing as old, but I’ll have to mind my manners in the future. So we were just talking with Scott about the Queen’s plate itself, and we’ll start there with you to get your view on this. Year’s running. He and I were both.
Mainly gravitating towards those at the lower end of the odd spectrum, but what’s your overview of this year’s Queen’s plate fields. Well, you know, it’s funny how things work out sometimes. So originally we thought maybe there would be 12 and then the numbers grew to now it’s a field of 14 and with the ABC flatter getting post positions for 14, I think that that makes the race all that much more intriguing.
I do like the 10 sky wire, uh, I’ve spoken to Yuriko DeSalvo a little bit about it because he had written both AB slider and sky wire. I think he committed to sky wire fairly early on, and he’s really happy with that horse and his choice. So I do like that one. I’m not shooting for any big prices here. AB splattered I’ll put under my exact, although I think he’s going to have a very challenging time from where he has to start from.
I like the Philly a little bit. I’m going to throw the Philly on the one desert ride. Cause I think her trip is going to work out pretty good. Excellent. Any word on how the main track has been playing lately? Any trends that you’ve seen, anything that makes that 14 posts particularly worrisome? It’s tough to say, because we’re getting weather finally this week that we really haven’t seen yet this summer in terms of a lot more heat and humidity as well.
And that is supposed to carry into Saturday too. Now with those weather conditions, that’s usually what would predicate any kind of attract bias in my opinion. Um, so I don’t know, we’ve seen a fairly. There racetracks throughout the year. There’s been days where it’s been, you know, inside speed a little bit better.
There have been days where outside closers have done better. I think it I’m hoping that it’s going to be just completely fair and the best horse will win. But you have seen that outside draw, just create general trip problems in the past. And that gives you some reservations about the favorite. This was a horse, I think many of us circled for this race back at Keeneland.
After that impressive. When I have to admit the, the draw, definitely, uh, Makes me a little bit concerned, but I still, I never liked getting off of a horse that I’ve picked out for a race months in advance. I’m sort of hoping the price drifts up to a point where maybe I don’t have to worry so much about the post.
How do you, what do you think’s going to happen with the market here? Know, I think he’ll do that. And he’ll be the favorite, um, especially with Castillano into ride him and the success in the States. I’m wondering if he, isn’t just a better term force and I know he’s undefeated on synthetic. He is too for two, his fig on turf is better, but you can’t really fault him because he’s still two for two city and have to go any bigger on the synthetic.
But his turf races are. Fantastic. They really are including that Transylvania. So I just, I don’t know. I think if you get anything less than five to two, I think that that is. Kind of way too low. He would be over bat. Uh, even five to Jesus seems a little low to me. I would be much happier if I was playing him.
If he were around three to one. I agree with that. I was almost wondering if the line wasn’t ready to go before the post straw as is sometimes the case. And then, and that’s not like fully even factored in. We’ll have to see the market will tell us on Saturday. And speaking of the rest of Saturday’s card was just curious to maybe get a spot or two from you, Dawn, that you were particularly excited about the sinking your teeth into either from a betting or sporting point of view.
Well, there’s a, there’s a pick three, a rolling pick three kind of in the middle of the card. And it includes two graded races, the King Yeti, and the dance smartly racist six and eight. And then there’s an intriguing little, five and a half maiden special rate in between those. So I’m going to take a chance on there.
Now I know when the King Edward race number six, the two synchrony is going to be a big favor from Mike stood on and Castillano, uh, so we’ll put that one on my ticket, but I’m going to, going to back him up with the seven Mia. Who was ultra impressive in the Canuck cup and the cert before that on yielding turf at Belmont in the, a maiden special and Ray seven, I liked the one Meyer that one Cassie horse really bad to load last time, like he wasted a ton of energy, just being a bit of a jerk at the gate.
So he was moving so well late night. Tagged him there as meeting further, he gets an extra house for a long, it’s not a lot, but I think it’s enough. I’ll take the four zoological has been working well on the seven Shane on both first time starters and reset, ready to dance smartly. I do like the four in there.
Again, these prices in these grade two races. Aren’t big. That’s for sure. Jubilee. I think if you have the one Holy hell Helena and the four-star should do believe you’re pretty well covered in the day. I like that. And it’s very much in line with. The what Scott and I were talking about early. So, you know, sometimes that’s really good when, uh, when the people I’m talking to, uh, in, in the close inner circle, agree.
And sometimes it ends up being really bad, but we’ll hope. We’ll hope. It’s, it’s a good thing. Well, Queen’s plate day. Give us, give me a set, some coming up. It’s going to be my first time there in person. Give me a little bit of an overview of the atmosphere general at Woodbine that day before I let you get outta here.
It’s a, it’s a really diverse crowd. You get people who come, obviously just for one day of the year, they never come to races. Other than that, you got the people who are there all the time, people dress up like you can’t. Possibly overdress on clean slate day. Anything goes for the gentlemen lately. It’s like, you know, a button down shirt don’t wear a jacket, cause it’s just going to be too warm outside.
But button-down shirt and shorts is a big thing. Like shorts are totally access, uh, accepted now as fancy enough, hats are good. The atmosphere is fine. A lot of color, a lot, a lot of pageantry and a lot of history. Peter, this, this race is 160 years old. So it’s been around for awhile. That’s fantastic. All right, Don.
Well, thank you for taking time out of, what’s such a busy week to check in with us again, I will stop by and say hi on Saturday and I’ll check the forecast. I was going to do the whole suit and tie thing. This English racing from last week rubbed off on me, but, but maybe I’ll, you know, do the tail coat and shorts or something.
We’ll get, we’ll get a little creative. That sounds like a plan. Otherwise I think you might melt. All right, Dawn. Thank you so much. Thanks theater. Or you look forward to seeing you. And that’s going to do it for this edition of the, in the money players podcast. Lots of thank yous to go around. We’ll start with Scott Coles.
We’ll throw in of course, Don Lupo and a J K gets a big shout out because though he was not physically here, he did, uh, help me organize my thoughts on what today’s show should be and help book the guests and all that. And that’s always a big help as well. We’re going to thank our sponsors. We’ll start with 10 strike racing.
Winners of the Highlander last year, thoroughbred retirement foundation, Jake Ballis in black type thoroughbreds and also stats race lands. Let’s give them one more shout out on this program. Most of all, I want to thank all of you, the listeners who make this show so much fun to do. A little crazy this week between tech issues and things.
I promise things will get smoother. We’ll get all the songs back in there. You’ll have a host who’s a little more combobulated next week, as opposed to my discombobulated self this week. But I still think we put some good content out there and hopefully there’s going to be lots of winners. Most important of all this show’s been a production of in the money media in the money media business manager is drew Kotani.
I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. May you win all your Queen’s plate photos.
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