Hello and welcome to our expanded coverage of Royal Ascot 2025. Anchoring our FREE coverage of every race will be Steven Bonnick, who will offer all of his Day Three thoughts in this post.
Before we get to that, let me give you an overview of everything else we have cooking.
We will have podcasts every day, including an Ascot Top 10 with Nick Luck and Vanessa Ryle.
Here’s the (tentative) lineup for the rest of the week, and if I do say so myself, it’s a who’s who in International Form Analysis.
Thursday: Michelle Yu
Friday: Scott Hazelton and Rishi Persad
Saturday: Tom Stanley (and maybe Michelle again)
If that’s not enough, on the In the Money Plus side we’ll have daily “Best Bets” from Rob Dove — one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today – along with digests of the picks from all the free shows. This is in addition to all the normal cool stuff we do over there — extra shows, special coverage of other big events including Del Mar and Saratoga.
Also, make sure you check out this new way to bet on Ascot.
2:30 – Norfolk Stakes – Group 2
A quick 5 furlongs to kick the day off.
KEY CONTENDERS
CHARLES DARWIN (#3) looks likely to head the market, particularly given that Aidan O’Brien’s juveniles have struck at the meeting. He was odds-on for his debut but could only finish 4th, however he has stepped forward significantly since that, winning his Maiden before taking a conditions event at odds of 1/14, beating 3 newcomers in the process. I’m sure he’s a good horse and the times of his victories support that view, but he’s essentially beaten nothing so far and he looks like a bit of a scratchy mover. The most likely winner but no juice in the price now.
AFJAN (#1) is a French raider and is rated amongst the best of these. He’s had one start to date, which resulted in a win, and visually it was extremely impressive, with the horse really quickening on the outside having dropped to the rear early. He was pretty electric through the penultimate furlong and I like how much faster he was through the final furlong than the rest. He was nearly half a second faster than the runner up over the final 3 furlongs, but when you consider the last two furlongs that number rises again to 0.58. He did have some cover from the wind that day and has quite an extravagant action which may not be suited to firm ground, but the engine looks high class.
NAVAL LIGHT (#13) strikes as one who will take money, particularly given that the same owner’s Shareholder went on to win at Royal Ascot off the same prep. He was making some good late gains at the finish on his debut and should relish the strong pace here, but it’s worth considering that he was covered up out of the wind and possibly flattered. That said, he should improve a ton – the horse that beat him, Old Is Gold, runs on Wednesday, so see how he goes.
QUICK NOTES
AMEEQ (#2) was a nice winner last time out with little cover from the wind and the second has run well since, but he needs more.
CLEAR FORCE (#4) was trapped wide and into the breeze last time and ran well considering.
FIRST LEGION (#7) has had the benefit of headwinds on both starts to date and didn’t appear to have many excuses last time out.
GRAFT (#8) got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in France last time out. He’s improving but needs a fair bit more here.
COMICAL POINT (#5) showed some nice speed on debut but had everything go his way and this is a big step up.
HEY TRU BLUE (#9) ran well in a hot race on debut. The winner, Rock On Thunder, ran well to finish 9th in the Coventry with a less-than-ideal trip so he might go OK at big odds.
LONDON BOY (#12) had a dream trip on debut and now gets a tongue-tie.
SANDAL’S SONG (#14) won the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes on debut, going slightly faster than the filly Lennilu, albeit carrying a few pounds less. She ran well here on Wednesday and he should
have the early pace to be involved.
WISE APPROACH (#16) looked a good horse on debut and was favoured next time out behind First Legion over 6f at York. He didn’t get any cover there and was a bit tame over the final furlong, so a drop to the this distance and some cover should see him in a better light. He could run a big race.
3:05 – King George V Stakes – Handicap – 12 Furlongs
An open middle-distance handicap for 3-year-olds, and most of these will be racing over the trip for the first time. A high draw has proved an edge over the past decade.
KEY CONTENDERS
SERIOUS CONTENDER (#5) represents a top trainer and has improved with every run to date. I like the manner in which he won last time out in a competitive contest, just getting the better of
LIGHT AS AIR (#12). I give these a similar chance and there’s quite a price discrepancy now, as the market as spoken for Serious Contender. He’s solid enough but I think the price is right.
LIGHT AS AIR (#12) looked unlucky not to win that race finding all of the trouble going and was perhaps a little unlucky next time out at Navan, not looking an easy ride. He gets cheek-pieces here which should help and should be able to win off this mark.
SING US A SONG (#6) is top rated by Timeform. He bossed his race from the front last time but those tactics will be difficult to pull off here. It’s possible he could be ridden with a bit more restraint here and his stable won this last year. The figure of the last run came out high and the form has worked out nicely, so there’s a lot to like, as he should stay OK.
MERCHANT (#8) should definitely stay having won over 12 furlongs last time. In that sense he perhaps has less scope for improvement than some of his rivals, but that form has worked out and I thought it was a pretty taking performance, streaking clear off steady fractions without feeling the whip. A well-run race and quick ground should be ideal, and he is likely a fair bit better than a mark of 90.
GUNSHIP (#10) was behind Sing Us A Song last time but raced against the flow there and shaped well in the circumstances. He won cosily on synthetics next time out and shapes as though he will relish a strong pace. He is bred to be good, being a half-brother to an Irish 2000 Guineas winner, and his striding suggests this distance will be within his capacity.
QUICK NOTES
DAIQUIRI BAY (#4) trainer has won this in the last decade and he was a bit unlucky to run into a good one last time. He should go on again with a good pace to aim at over this trip.
OMNI MAN (#9) was impressive when getting off the mark last time and has claims if he handles the going.
PROPOSE (#11) should be winning races off this mark. He looks well treated if he stays, but has plenty of speed so that’s a little question mark.
GRECIAN LEGACY (#18) impressed me two back with his turn of foot and maybe didn’t quite get home in soft ground last time having made rapid progress on the worst part of the track. His
stamina isn’t guaranteed but if he stays he should go well.
NOVELISTA (#22; reserve) may not get in but he’s 100/1 and that might be a big price. He’s shaped well in two runs this season, stays a bit further and should get the race run to suit off a low weight.
BOATSWAIN (#3) looks a stayer with more to come, but the draw could have been better. He’s closely weighted with MASAI MOON (#1) who’s bred to be good and has been gelded since the pair met at Nottingham.
3:40 Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2 – 12 Furlongs
Another weak looking renewal of a middle distance race.
KEY CONTENDERS
CATALINA DELCARPIO (#2) heads the market. This twice raced filly hasn’t done a lot wrong to date, winning on debut before looking unlucky not to finish a little closer in a Group 3 at Navan last time. The winner that day finished fourth in the Epsom Oaks and the third has run well at Listed level since, so it’s decent form without being spectacular. On the plus side, the pace was slow in bad ground and Catalina Delcarpio was a bit keen early before being short of room at a key stage, and she made up nice ground when in the clear. Better going shouldn’t be a problem and she has plenty of scope to improve again.
SERENITY PRAYER (#10) is also having just her third start here, and also has form figures of 12. She did it nicely on debut in a contest that hasn’t really worked out with the runner up there beaten next time in a handicap off just 79. Serenity Prayer has since run in the Musidora Stakes where she finished 5.5 lengths adrift of Whirl, who went on to be beaten just a neck in the Epsom Oaks. That was a nice step forward and she ran a solid figure there despite finishing well beaten, while she should stay this trip on breeding and her low cadence.
GARDEN OF EDEN (#4) ran out a game winner when stepped to 10 furlongs last time. The form of that doesn’t look great and she’s done her best running going lefthanded, but Aidan O’Brien is a master with these fillies when he gets them on a roll so she may be able to step up again.
LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL (#9) has some good form, finishing behind the very promising Falakeyah last time our having finished behind subsequent Listed winner Kon Tiki two back. That would be amongst the best form on show here, I just worry about her over this distance.
QUICK NOTES
LADY VIVIAN (#8) won a handicap last time with a perfect trip; she should improve but needs to.
UNDERSTUDY (#11) looks a nice galloping type who should progress with time, but her form gives her plenty to find.
GO GO BOOTS (#5) was behind Serenity Prayer at York and finished last in the Oaks. Hard to fancy here.
4:20 Gold Cup – Group 1 – 20 Furlongs
A race weakened by the absence of the retired champion Kyprios, providing the opportunity for a new star to emerge.
KEY CONTENDERS
If the betting is correct, the Gold Cup will be staying at Ballydoyle anyway, as ILLINOIS (#8) comes into the race a strong favourite. He last run has been boosted by the runner up and his neck second to Jan Brueghel in the St Leger last season looks better now that horse has won the Group 1 Coronation Cup. He showed last year in the Queen’s Vase that this track and going are no issue for him and I don’t see this extreme test posing him too much of a problem. I think whatever beats him will win.
TRAWLERMAN (#4) is an obvious rival having beaten Kyprios around here in 2023 and chased him home in last year’s Gold Cup, finishing just one length adrift of the champ. He’s shown himself as good as ever in two runs this season and was impressive when winning his prep at Sandown last time out with COLTRANE (#1) well behind in 2nd. He is perhaps vulnerable to an improver, but looks guaranteed to run his race.
CANDELARI (#7) looks a threat to all. He only made his debut in December but has quickly made up for lost time, winning 4 of his 5 starts including a Group 1 last time out when winning the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier. He made good progress into the lead when the pace picked up but his last furlong was his best, really maintaining the gallop while others waned. I think he’ll stay no problem looking at his breeding and cadence, but the quick ground might not be ideal.
SWEET WILLIAM (#3) has seen the backend of Kyprios a few times himself. He’s a solid enough yardstick but was 5 lengths behind Trawlerman in this last year and it’s hard to see him improving enough to turn that around aged 6.
QUICK NOTES
WONDER LEGEND (#5) has made big strides in handicaps but this is a much stiffer ask.
YASHIN (#6) won a recognised prep for this on Trial’s Day but that leaves her with plenty to find with Trawlerman on a line through Coltrane.
5:00 – Britannia Stakes – Handicap – 8 Furlongs
30 lightly-raced 3-year-olds go to post here. It’s currently 10/1 the field which tells you everything you need to know about how tricky this will be to solve.
KEY CONTENDERS
LA BOTTE (#2) is clearly highly thought of and represents the Queen Anne-winning stable of Harry Eustace. He was well backed for a Listed race on his most recent start but maybe found things a
little tough at this stage of his career there. He made a decent move into contention there but couldn’t sustain it and ended up well held in fourth at the line. He has a good jockey booking for the track but I’d be a little worried about his finishing effort there given this is likely to be a serious test over a furlong further.
CONSOLIDATION (#12) showed the benefit of a gelding operation last time out when making a winning return to action at Goodwood. The form is mixed but the runner up has proven to be a good horse and he really quickened up nicely from off the pace there. He has a lot of speed in his pedigree and this stiff mile will pose a different test to last time.
AFENTIKO (#6) finished behind TEROOMM (#8) last time out but that was his seasonal debut and he was storming home at the finish. A well-run race should suit him and he gets a promising 5lb claimer aboard in the shape of Warren Fentiman. Decent going suits him and he’s capable of a big effort.
QUICK NOTES
ARABIAN STORY (#5) started his career on dirt but improved for synthetics last time and should step forward again on turf. He reminds me a little of Real World, who won at this meeting for this trainer, has Oisin Murphy booked, and looks to have the ability to run well here.
TEROOMM (#8) seemed to enjoy being ridden with more restraint last time as he took his winning run to three. The form doesn’t look great but the time was solid and he’s got a nice attitude, while a return to front-running may not be a negative.
FEARNOT (#18) was super impressive when bolting up here last time out. That was a far weaker race than this but the form looks solid and he proved in a different league to his rivals there. A 10lb rise will make things tougher but he has more to come in a well run race.
THE FINGAL RAVEN (#23) seems to have enjoyed being held up the last twice, making up some good ground two back and then running on into a distant second last time. That was behind the 2000 Guineas winner, so there’s no shame in that, and a mark of 93 looks pretty workable to me. He’ll relish this strong run mile on a straight track and his trainer and jockey do well here. Interesting at big odds.
TRIBAL NATION (#24) ran quite well last time from a long way back. He’s closely weighted with MISSISSIPPI RIVER (#33 – reserve) on that form.
RAAFEDD (#25) has to prove he can do it over this trip.
BRAVE MISSION (#28) should improve for his seasonal debut.
5:35 – Hampton Court Stakes – Group 3 – 10 Furlongs
Derby form from France and England is on show here.
KEY CONTENDERS
TRINITY COLLEGE (#14) ran well in a trial for the latter two back, and then ran even better when fourth in the former on his most recent start. He had a pretty decent trip around but was a little one-paced under pressure compared to the three that beat him. I think more of a test at the trip will suit this horse, who doesn’t really do anything that quickly, and he should be well positioned.
He was one place behind DETAIN (#3) in that contest. This horse hasn’t done a lot wrong in his career to date, his one poor effort coming on soft ground. I’d say he has a bit more speed than Trinity College but this could turn into more of a test of stamina, although he’s probably got the best form.
HIGH STOCK (#7) has the profile of an improver coming here after just two starts. He was second in a Derby Trial at Chester last time out but had a lovely run around and made hard enough work of going past the 86 rated GREAT DAVID (#6; 40/1 here) for me, although the time was very good. He’s clearly a talented animal but at 4/1 he doesn’t make much betting appeal to me against horses with Classic form.
TORNADO ALERT (#13) fits that description having run well in both the 2000 Guineas (staying on) and the Derby (weakening late). This 10 furlong trip should really suit with that in mind and he should continue to progress.
JACKKNIFE (#8) caught the eye last time out in a Listed race at Sandown that was won by the very classy Opera Ballo. He couldn’t get a run at a key stage but came home in very pleasing fashion for a horse having only his second run. A stronger pace over this distance looks sure to suit this half-brother to a Group 1 winner over 12 furlongs and he is open to any amount of improvement.
REYENZI ((#9) looks an interesting runner at a big price. He was demoted to third last time out when first past the post in a Group 3 at the Curragh, having hung badly when hitting the front. However, he had quickened really nicely from the rear to get into a challenging position and I feel like he’d have been a clearcut winner if he’d run straight, while the timefigure compares favourably against most of these, particularly if you consider he could have gone faster. He should have learned a lot from that, is open to lots of progress and his turn of foot is a potent weapon.
6:10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes – Handicap – 7 Furlongs
This looks a deeply unappealing betting contest with 30 exposed runners over 7 furlongs. Several of these have had nice trips into headwinds and may find life difficult trying to make up ground in a tailwind on fast going.
KEY CONTENDERS
ENGLISH OAK (#12) was an impressive winner at this meeting last year over this course and distance. He has struggled this season since being gelded but his last run was a little better and it’d be no surprise if he revives here with the cheekpieces applied.
NEVER SO BRAVE (#3) looked unlucky not to win on his yard and seasonal debut last time out at Chester, lacking a run at a key stage and flying home. That should tee him up lovely for this and he looks well drawn to track the speed, while he ran well in a Group 3 here last year.
GLENEAGLE BAY (#26) ran well in the Victoria Cup last time, a key trial for this run over course and distance. He just failed there, but might find it harder to execute hold up tactics this time around and the form is only average.
ROI DE FRANCE (#1) finished sixth that day. He’s better known for his all-weather exploits and a mark of 105 looks high enough on turf.
MIRSKY (#25) has run some good races here and a mark of 95 doesn’t look beyond him at all. He’s won his last two and looked in rare form last time out, winning emphatically at Epsom. He should be up with the pace and should go very well at big odds.
HOLGUIN (#10) seems to handle most ground. He was behind Never So Brave last time out but was wide all the way around a sharp track and is better than that. This prominent racer is on a very attractive mark on his best form, has a nice draw and has Buick up, so there’s a lot to like at big odds.
QUICK NOTES
INSIDE MATTERS (#15) faces a big ask off a year off on British debut but his trainer excels with this sort.
YORKSHIRE (#16) still has scope off a mark of 98.
OLIVER SHOW (#14), BILLYJOH (#29) and AKKADIAN THUNDER (#24) all had good trips in headwinds last time.
