T O Password – 2024 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile

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By Alex Henry

How He Got Here

T O Password is here based on his front-running victory in the Fukuryu stakes on March 23rd at Nakayama Race Course about 40 minutes from the heart of Tokyo, Japan. The Fukuryu stakes has been contested as a qualifying race for the Japan Road to Kentucky Derby since 2019 and is run over 1800 meters or roughly 9 furlongs (1 1/8 miles) on dirt. While no winners of this race have made the Kentucky Derby starting gate since become a Derby qualifier, Master Fencer finished 2nd in this race in 2019 on his way to a 6th place finish in the Derby. 

For further context, the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby is a series of races that, similar to our United States-based Derby points races, confer points to the top five finishers. The series begins in November of the horses 2 year old season with the Cattleya Stakes (8 furlongs/1600 meters), then continues in December the Grade 1 Zen Nihon Nisai Yushun (8 furlongs/1600 meters). The series continues in February of their 3 year old season with the listed Hyacinth Stakes (8 furlongs/ 1600 meters), and concludes in March with the Fukuryu Stakes (9 furlongs/1800 meters). T O Password received 40 points for his victory, thus propelling him to the top of the leaderboard for Japanese contingent. It should be noted that due to his win in the UAE Derby, Forever Young was removed from the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby list per the 2023-2024 official rulebook. 

T O Password’s win in the Fukuryu Stakes was accomplished by him leading throughout and holding off a fast closing Arare Tabashiru by a short head. In fact, the top three finishers were 7th, 6th, and 11th favorites in terms of wagering odds, respectively. The race time favorite, La Oracion (by Creator) faltered after tracking T O Password and settled for 4th. The colts completed 1800 meters in 1:54.1 over the right-handed course. It should be noted that the Nakayama course is graded, and horses travel over a 4 meter (~13 feet) difference in elevation when running two turns as they did in the Fukryu Stakes. Additionally, JRA tracks are curated with meticulous care to eliminate track bias and improve cushioning for their equine athletes, therefore, dirt times are notably slower than in the United States due to their tracks possessing a deeper sandy composition. While this winning time was slower than previous editions of the race, T O Password seems to possess a keen sense of where the finish line is and nice acceleration off of the far turn to put some distance between he and his rivals. Additionally, he breaks quite well, an asset he displayed in the Fukuryu Stakes and in his January maiden win over 9 furlongs/1800 meters. 

How He Fits Here

T O Password earned his Kentucky Derby berth the hard way with only a maiden and the Fukuryu stakes under his belt. We need to look back to 1883 winner Leonatus to find a Kentucky Derby winner who captured the race after only two prior starts; Mage, Justify, and Big Brown captured the Derby with three prior starts. It’s difficult to assess the quality of colts he beat at Nakayama, as the top three wagering choices were well beaten, but he clearly wants as much distance as possible given he debuted at 9 furlongs/1800 meters. I have learned to never count a Japanese runner out (recalling the 2021 Breeders Cup weekend), as it is only a matter of time before Japan get their Louisville roses.

Connections And Pedigree

This colt is a great grandson of Sunday Silence, Timber Country, Kingmambo, and Favorite Trick. 

T O Password’s young sire Copano Rickey is a multiple Grade 1 winner on Japanese dirt, including two editions of the 8 furlong/1600 meters February Stakes and the Tokyo Daishoten over 10 furlongs/2000 meters. His eldest offspring are 5 years old in 2024, with his best runner to date being Grade 3 placed dirt sprinter Arms Reign (out of Arms Tosho by Coronado’s Quest). 

T O Password’s dam T O Rachel hasn’t produced any foals of note, with the best besides T O Password being an allowance winner. T O Rachel’s dam Nike Favor also only managed 3 allowance victories. Her best foal by Deep Brillante, Knight Banneret won at the Open level (open races are one level below stakes but one level above allowance races). In Japan and in the United States this dam line is not very productive, with 3rd dam Sixy Chic (Saratoga Six out of Millie and Me by Wise Exchange) producing 11 foals, all failing to achieve black-type. We need to look to 4th dam Millie and Me to find stakes winners produced, with Grade 2 Ladies Handicap winner Groovy Feeling (Groovy) and Listed Genoese Valley Breeders Handicap winner The Savage (I’ma Hell Raiser). Sixy Chic’s half-siblings found success, as both Groovy Feeling and The Savage produced stakes performers. 

Owned by Tomoya Ozasa, who uses his initials T O to name his horses, T O Password has been managed by experienced hands. Ozasa-san’s most successful runner to date is T O Keynes, multiple graded stakes and Grade 1 Champions Cup winner. Bred by Yanagawa Bokujo (Yanagawa Farm), this Hokkaido-based breeding operation is responsible for such champions as Kitasan Black and T O Password’s sire Copano Rickey. 

T O Password is trained by Daisuke Takayanagi, best known for conditioning T O Keynes throughout his Grade 1-winning career from 2019-2023 and Grade 2 2023 Hanshinhimba Stakes winner Sound Vivace. Throughout his 8-year career, Takayanagi-san has amassed 140 wins and 7 graded stakes wins. This will be his first starter saddled outside of Japan, however, he visited the United States in 2017 to observe the training methods of several top conditioners including Ben Colebrook, Dale Romans, and Tom Amoss. 

T O Password will have a rider change in the Kentucky Derby, Woodbine-phenom Kazushi Kimura picks up the mount as previous rider Katsuma Sameshima was unable to make the trip. Kimura has had one previous Derby mount in Master Fencer (6th in 2019) and was slated to ride Continuar last year but the colt was scratched and did not compete. As a 3-time Sovereign Award outstanding jockey and Eclipse Award winner for outstanding apprentice jockey (2019), T O Password is in excellent hands. 

Overall Chance

One thing you can be sure of ahead of May 4th is that if you like T O Password, you will get an excellent price on him next Saturday. He currently sits at 125-1 (USA, Caesars) and 33-1 (UK, bet365). I expect him to be somewhere between these prices, between 40- to 50-1. As a massive fan of the Japanese racing product, I honestly believe T O Password is up against it in the 2024 Kentucky Derby given the talents of the top 3 wagering choices including fellow countryman Forever Young. I do like how his connections recognized at debut that he prefers longer dirt distances, therefore, I have no doubt 10 furlongs will not be an issue. The main concern is: will Kimura be asked to send his mount to the lead to compete with serious American speed? Or will he be tracking leaders similar to his maiden win? The draw occurring tonight (April 27th at 7:00 PM EST) will be extremely telling in which tactics Takayanagi and Kimura choose, and if he is drawn to the inside, I believe they will have no choice but to send him early. The bottom line is that T O Password will be one of the longest shots on the wagering board, however, the pedigree geek within tells me he will relish every furlong of the 10 to be run next Saturday and that merits his inclusion on trifectas, superfectas, and a win bet just in case lightning strikes for Japan.