Race 4: #4 Executive Effect (6-1) (note this race has been switched to synthetic)
#8 Blonde Dynamo and #7 Spring High are the two horses to beat in this spot. Dynamo has been a bit more tactical as of late and is coming off a nice maiden score, but her better races have clearly come on the turf course so I want to downgrade her with the switch to synthetic. #7 Spring High will likely take a ton of money based on her last couple efforts. Two back, she had a brutal trip where she might’ve won had she gotten through, last time out she was in too tough and actually ran well from off the pace. She’s back in with her friends today, but I’m concerned about what kind of setup she’ll get and I don’t want to back her at a short price.
I like #4 Executive Effect (6-1) in this spot given the likely pace scenario. A field of eight will line up here and six of them all do their best running from well off the pace, including her two main rivals. Her best races put her in the hunt based on speed figures and the surface switch erases any questions I had about the turf course. The only horse that could give her issues early is the mare drawn directly to her outside, but that horse will be a huge price and Executive Effect should be able to clear that rival based on Timeform US pace figures. She’s also run a couple decent races when she didn’t make the lead, so I don’t think it’s the end of the world if she lets that longshot and sits right off her. This will be just her second start this year and I like that they protected her last time. I was a little concerned she needed so much time between starts, but she does have four works coming into this including a super easy three eighths work that suggests she’s ready to go.
Race 8: #5 Bait N Switch (7/2)
I really liked this gelding just twelve days ago when he went off at a massive price going long on the turf course. I thought he actually ran pretty well in there at 25-1. He showed more speed than in his debut and sat midpack off a hot pace. He moved up to second in the turn and actually looked like he might’ve had a chance at the top of the stretch. He couldn’t sustain that bid however and faded in the final furlong. His debut was pretty similar where he uncorked a big middle move while wide and flattened in the stretch. Those two performances scream cutback to me and he’s getting it today with this race being seven furlongs. I love that he’s more tactical than his main rivals, yet still has roughly the same finish based on late pace figures. He should also have a fitness edge over his rivals and this is a big drop in class so he should be primed for a peak effort in start number three.