I didn’t think there was a whole lot to work with on this card but Saturday’s card looks excellent so let’s try to pad those bankrolls heading into the weekend.
Race 5: #1 Emerald Lake 5/2
This play is very dependent on the tote board because I won’t be surprised if she gets crushed to something like ⅖ in here. Her SoCal form simply towers over this group and if she can reproduce any of those efforts, she should win this. Her last two starts have been pretty bad though so she’s not exactly a lock. I can excuse the dirt try two back, but that last race was just perplexing and this plummet in class doesn’t exude confidence. Still, she’s got the best numbers in the field and is among the fastest on early and late pace figures. This rail draw should force her hand to the front end and I’m not sure they’ll be able to catch her. She seemed to be working well on the synthetic so the surface shouldn’t be an issue either. Again, this play is very dependent on the tote. Anything close to the morning line is worth a wager but if she creeps towards the even money line I’d be more hesitant.
Race 7: #9 Forever Danish 15-1
This was easily the most intriguing race of the day for me since I didn’t really see a whole lot of separation between the favorites and some of the bigger prices. I took a long long at #8 Ravello Beauty coming off an impossibly wide trip and a strong gallop out going shorter. I ended up pivoting to my top pick #9 Forever Danish since he’s more tactical and has about the same kick. His two races have been very encouraging. Two back he closed into a slow pace to get up for third in a race where the speed went 1-2 throughout. Last time he went to the front going two turns, shook off his pace rival, opened up a big lead turning for home, and got swallowed up late. I thought she moved way too soon that day, especially considering she was against the race flow with that early pace rival finishing up the track(was a main contender too) as did the filly tracking from third. I love the versatility she’s shown in the last couple starts and this outside draw combined with the long run to the turn should give her rider options(especially beneficial since the pace scenario is murky). Low profile connections should ensure she’s a big price and I think she’s got as big of a shot as any in here.
