Race 4: #5 Jack the Cat (12-1)
The horse to beat in this race is easily #10 Desolator (5/2) who should get bet down from this morning line based on his last two smashing victories. However, he drew a tough outside post in this big field and while he created good trips in those races, there is A TON of speed signed on in here, and I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate those performances. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but he’ll be a short price and I want to gamble on a horse that can take advantage of a complete meltdown. #5 Jack the Cat (12-1) has races in his past that are good enough to win this. He’s had trouble with consistency this year, but his form lately has been encouraging including his latest effort at Fort Erie when he just missed while closing into a slow pace. That was the fourth consecutive race that he’s improved his speed figure, and it won’t take much improvement to be competitive in this spot, especially if the field is coming back to him. The connections have been firing on all cylinders all year long and the five pound break in the weights can only help his late kick, bombs away!?
Race 8: #2 Daddy’s Legacy (9/2)
Let’s take a minor stab in the nightcap with a filly that is less exposed than the rest of her competitors. #2 Daddy’s Legacy (9/2) is making just her fourth career start in a field full of career maidens and she deserves consideration on that aspect alone. I think she also has a few other things going for her, including significant class relief. She’s faced $25k optional maiden claimers in all of her starts, but today she plummets to the bottom at the $7.5k level. She didn’t run great in any of those but I do like that she showed the ability to pass horses and a decent amount of early speed going longer. It’s also worth noting her best race was her shortest, and she should be dead fit cutting back to a sprint. Wilson picks up the mount for the first time and she drew a cozy inside slot where she could save all the ground and come running late with the best late pace figures in the field. If she’s ever going to run big, this is the field to do it against and she offers solid value at anywhere near the 9/2 listed on the morning line.
