Race 2: #1 Umneyaat (12-1)
This is easily the most wide open race on the card and I’m hesitant to take anybody at a short price. #12 Silent Guroo is probably the best speed, but I have a tough time envisioning her getting an easy lead with this bulky field, and it’s a big ask to go from five furlongs to seven furlongs. I’m also hesitant about the best closer #7 Kitten’s Romance. Her recent form is just okay, maybe the class relief will help, but she’ll be a shorter price based on her overall body of work and I’m not sure that’s a good indication of where she is right now. I’ll take my shot with #1 Umneyaat (12-1) at what should be a generous price. Her last race was better than it looks on paper as she dueled throughout and battled to deep stretch and wasn’t beaten by much. Her pace rival finished way up the track and she probably prefers to sit behind rivals anyway. She’s been given a short break since the good effort and should appreciate the cutback to one turn. She should save every inch of ground from this rail draw and I love that she has some of the highest late pace figures in the field while doing her best running from mid-pack. Low percentage connections should ensure a good price, but they actually do quite well when teaming up. She seems like a logical gamble at anywhere near the 12-1 offered on the morning line.
Race 3: #6 Stole the Ring (10-1)
Not a deep group, but #6 Stole the Ring (10-1) could be the best speed in a race that is lacking it. He’s shown a new dimension in his two latest races and he was able to capitalize in the most recent race going seven furlongs. The stretch-out shouldn’t be an issue given his success at the demanding seven furlong distance, and his recent figures are as good as any in here except the favorite. He’ll probably get bet down a bit from the morning line, but he offers value at around 6-1 and is worth a stab at that price. He may also be worth keying second in an exacta with #4 Cheeky Pint (8/5). That runner has zero early speed and typically hasn’t run as well on the tapeta, but has numbers that make him the likeliest winner of this race.
Race 8: #4 Celentano (8-1)
One more shot for #4 Celentano (8-1) as the gelding switches back to the turf course and stretches out to two turns. Excuses can be made for his last three starts. Three back he had a rough start, rushed up, and faded against much tougher competition. Two back he again had trouble in the early portions of the race, made a big middle move and flattened out. And finally in his latest start he pressed a wicked hot pace that completely came apart. The four horses that hit the superfecta were all positioned in the back of the pack early on, and the horses that contested the pace with Celentano finished way up the track. He did well to hang on to the lead til deep stretch before he finally hit a wall. Much better performance than it looks on paper. This configuration is typically favorable to horses that race near the front and this guy should appreciate the slower pace of this two-turn race. There are no superstars in this group and 8-1 seems like a pretty fair price for this runner.
