Race 3: #1 Bet (7/2)
One more shot for #1 Bet (7/2)? I’ve tried to get him home a number of times and today will likely be the last if he can’t get the job done. His recent form is solid, last time out he was wide and chased a loose leader throughout while still closing to get up for second at this level. Toss the race two back on the turf where he was a complete no show (he’s winless on grass) and the race three back was good against much tougher competition when he pressed the pace and got run down from behind by better rivals than he meets here. He draws the cozy inside slot for today’s assignment and there’s much more speed signed on for today’s race so I think he’ll be able to turn the tables on the runner drawn directly to his outside. He remains at this low level and should have every chance as they turn for home.
Race 7: #7 Muskoka Giant (3-1)
It’s a little concerning that #7 Muskoka Giant is plummeting to the bottom after just one poor effort on the grass. However, I’m willing to forgive that latest effort since it’s pretty clear he just has not handled that surface lately and is a much better animal on the synthetic. His two most recent tapeta races tower over this bunch on speed figures, he’s cracked 70 in both of those starts and the only other rival that has done that this year is #5 Canyouhearmennow (who has gone completely off form). The race two back against tougher was excellent as he chased a loose leader through slow fractions and did well to get up for second, the top three that day were well clear of the rest. It appears there is plenty of speed to flatter his late rally and the 5 pound weight break only enhances his chances. I’m hoping the drop and the low profile connections help preserve this morning line price since it appears he’s the most likely winner by a comfortable margin. Anything over 9/5 would be fair value and maybe you can try to get some prices underneath to spruce up the exotics (#3?).