Race 4: #3 Trizzel Trazzel (7/2)
This race should feature a lively pace, especially in a large field like this, so I want one of the horses coming from behind. I considered the favorite #8 Dreaming of Audrey (5/2) dropping out of much tougher races, but she doesn’t have much of an edge on speed figures, and she certainly needs to find more on late pace figures at a short price. The horse with the best form right now is #3 Trizzel Trazzel (7/2) and she’ll be my top pick in this spot. She’s recently emerged as an elongated sprint specialist, coming from the clouds to win two of her last three races against restricted claimers. I also want to upgrade her most recent race since the pace was just moderate and mostly held together, and yet she still came flying late to get to the wire first. Those races did come with a ten pound weight break, which she loses today, but Kimura is the best rider on this circuit for a reason and is more than capable of working out a trip for this filly. I’d need every but of 7/2 to make a wager since she’ll have to navigate traffic at some point, but she’s definitely in with a big shot.
Race 6: #10 Thatsitthatsall (6-1)
In a race that doesn’t feature much pace, #10 Thatsitthatsall (6-1) could be the one to take advantage and post a minor upset. I love the switch to the outside post, since she’s not the quickest horse out of the gate, especially for a horse that has early speed. The outside draw should give her an extra jump or two to get into stride without costing her early position, as has been the case in her last couple of races. Last time she was a bit slow from the rail and found herself in a weird place between the rail and the pacemaker. It seemed like the rider couldn’t decide whether to send her through the opening or take back and rate so she ended up getting stuck in no-man’s-land. She checked out of that spot when they headed into the far turn, but she stayed on nicely after that and grinded away to hang on for third with a decent gallop out. Two back she was in another uncomfortable spot dueling between rivals down the backside, taking pressure on each side throughout the race and yet she fought again until the wire to finish fourth. I don’t mind the stretch-out to seven furlongs as her lone victory came in an elongated sprint when pressing the pace from the outside. The switch to the bug-girl Vives only enhances her chances and I think she provides solid value at 6-1.
Race 8: #11 Gentle Seas (4-1)
Unlike most of her competition, #11 Gentle Seas (4-1) seems to be rounding into form and should be tough if able to replicate her recent races. Her latest effort was especially encouraging as she sat mid-pack behind a slow pace and still came running late to just miss out on the winner’s circle by a neck. The victor returned to finish a solid second against winners so the form of the race was validated and note they were well clear of the rest. Her race three back also came under similar circumstances from an outside draw and she finished a solid third that day at this level after stalking the pace. She seems to have recovered well since the November run as she’s turned in a bullet work since then, and the price should be right in this bulky field.
