I had a tough time with today’s card so just one play to end the week, but we’ll be back on Thursday!
Race 4: #8 One More Brew (3-1)
He’s going to be a shorter price than I’d usually prefer, but #8 One More Brew (3-1) should be formidable in this spot(also how do you not bet on the name?!) . This race is full of horses who have lost several times at this level and those are the ones I’m typically trying to beat. Brew is making his first start at this level after breaking his maiden in convincing fashion last month. He broke sharply and dueled in between horses for the duration of the race (the running line is incorrect). He shook off the pressure from both sides and was able to draw away in the final furlong, earning a solid speed figure in doing so (67 Beyer). That’s the highest last-out number in the field and Timeform US verifies that as well (91). He drew well towards the outside today, so he should deal with significantly less pressure in the early portion of the race. He’s also carrying eight pounds less than his main rival and that could make a big difference in these depths.
The majority of the play should go to the win end on One More Brew, but I also want to do a small exacta box with the #9 Jamiesta (8-1) in hopes of a form reversal. His last two starts have been pretty bad, even if minor excuses could be made (turf, against the race flow), but his races prior to that would make him very competitive.