Woodbine Spot Plays 07/20/23 By Jackson Muniz

Race 6: #6 Cardio Princess (4-1)

I think this filly’s form is a bit dirtied up and that could make her price drift up a bit. She’s two heads away from being a perfect three for three sprinting over the Woodbine turf course, but she’s been smoked in all four of her other starts. She’s clearly a better filly at this track/trip, so I think we’ll see one of her better efforts today. This class shouldn’t be a problem as she earned a couple of very close seconds at this level last summer and there’s always the chance she’s improved from three to four. I also think she should get a good stalking trip in a race that should be run fast early. She’s surrounded on each side by rivals with early speed, so I’m hoping she’ll be able to get away from the gates and draft in right behind them. She’s just one of two in here who have consistently passed rivals and she’s got significantly more tactical speed than that rival. In Mark Casse we trust!

Race 8: #2 Turf and Surf (3-1)

I know this filly’s recent form isn’t the greatest, but she’s getting significant class relief today and that could be the difference-maker for her. Her last start against more expensive claimers looks much better when considering the slow pace and the trouble she had. Prior to that, she was a complete no show in a couple starts against straight maidens (she’s facing 10k claimers today), but I am willing to forgive those efforts since one came at the end of her form cycle and the other was on synthetic. I like that she’s an older runner facing mostly three year olds as I believe generally the older runners are still a bit better at this point in the year.  I also like that she has the highest Timeform US late pace figure by a pretty substantial margin, and I’m pretty confident she’ll be within striking distance throughout the race, given who she faces today.  Her better efforts from last year would bury this field, but if she can even get close to that form she should be very tough against these.

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