Race 6: #6 Painted Glory (9/2)
Small field, but it appears to be a pretty evenly matched group so hopefully this morning line holds up because I would love to get 9/2 on #6 Painted Glory. She is a filly facing the boys and this is a rarely carded mile and a quarter race so the connections must have been intent on finding a longer race for her. And based on her first two races, she should appreciate this trip. Her first start was at the tricky seven furlong distance where she made up several lengths on the turn before flattening out a bit in the stretch to finish evenly. I loved her last start when she stretched out to two turns on the synthetic. She showed good speed from an outside post to be forwardly placed, but lost position while wide on the first turn and fell towards the back of the pack. She was extremely wide on the far turn, but was still able to rally and get up for fourth despite the ground loss on both turns. This is a much smaller field so it’s unlikely she’ll get caught up in too much trouble and she should be forwardly placed from this cozy outside draw. She should be fit and ready for the stretch-out and don’t be surprised to see a forward move in start number three.
Race 7: #3 Castleton 8-1
#2 Turf and Surf is clearly the one to beat in this spot based on recent form, but she’s likely to be heavily bet switching to Kimura and she’s had her chances as this will be her 10th career start. At this lower level I usually want to take horses that should be forwardly placed, especially on this inner turf course, so I want to take a chance on #3 Castleton stretching out to two turns for the first time. She’s coming off a pair of six and a half furlong races at this level where she merely split the field both times, but ran evenly suggesting that a stretch-out could be to her benefit. Both of those tries were on the synthetic and I think she could take a step forward on the grass based on her pedigree. I like the new dimension she showed last time when she closed over five lengths in the stretch despite a poor start. I’m expecting her to show plenty of early speed like in her prior starts, but it’s encouraging to know she’s capable of passing horses if someone else is intent on making the front.
