Your Irreverent Guide to the 2026 Kentucky Derby

GUEST POST BY BILL DUNCLIFFE – THE 2026 KENTUCKY DERBY

It’s time once again, devoted followers, for the annual celebration of that most glorious annual event on the calendar, the Kentucky Derby!   The hopes and dreams of a legion of followers around the globe are thus being fulfilled anew, as Your Faithful Correspondent (YFC) leads a  teeming throng of admirers to the land of gambling milk and honey with his learned and erudite analysis of the cavalry charge of 20 horses leaving the starting gate in Louisville this Saturday.

Even as YFC humbly rests on his own well-acknowledged expertise, his humility also allows him to engage in deep and thoughtful conversation with other equine experts to at least try and find areas where his thinking may be slightly off kilter.  Of course, that’s yet to happen but, still, YFC nevertheless is unstinting in looking for additional insights he may not have yet ascertained.

Take it from Mr. Ed,  dear reader, that when you are looking to make a big score you go right to this source, knowing that YFC will give you the answer that you endorse, because he is always on a steady course.

Now, let’s steady ourselves and take a look at the field for this year’s Kentucky Derby, in post position order.

Renegade

Not exactly rebellious to bet this dominant Arkansas Derby and Samuel F. Davis Stakes winner.  Owned by Robert and Lowana Low, Renegade comes into this race riding high.  Will have to work out a trip from the rail but has the ability to save ground and make a dangerous late run.

Albus

Upset winner of the last Wood Memorial ever to be run at the idyllic Aqueduct Race Course in bucolic South Ozone Park, New York, hard by JFK airport.   YFC will be saying RUFK me if this guy somehow ends up in the winner’s circle.

 Intrepido

Partially owned by Dutch Girl Holdings.   Maybe the Dutch Boy paints kid finally got himself a girlfriend?  Although with that haircut the odds don’t look that good.  Speaking of odds, you’re more likely to find a can of striped paint than to find this horse in the winner’s circle.

Litmus Test

Basically you’d have to be on acid to bet this guy. 

Right to Party

Tokin’ entry clunked up late for second at the Wood Memorial.   Any bets on this guy will be wasted.  Likely to get smoked on Saturday. 

Commandment

Will bet if odds are 10-1. 

Danon Bourbon

Japanese entrant at least supporting the preferred refreshment of the Bluegrass State.   YFC has been saying for years he expects a Japanese entry to win this race at some point.  Is undoubtedly a fast one.  If he can get out of the starting gate, which has been a problem for some of these entrants from across the Pacific, he may have a shot.

So Happy

Sentimental choice Saturday would make a lot of people happy. Trainer Mark Glatt’s wife Dena died suddenly, just 6 week’s before this horse’s triumph in the Santa Anita Derby

The Puma

Backers hoping this cat doesn’t scratch. Always fights hard.  He’s no dog.

Wonder Dean

Don’t think Dean has the faculty to make the honor roll here.

Incredibolt

Virginia Derby winner beat a mediocre field in that race.   One of two entries for trainer Riley Mott. Will have to show more life for Riley to triumph Saturday. 

Chief Wallabee

Trainer Bill Mott’s entry lines up next to son Riley’s.   Throughout the prep races this winter and spring supporters have been touting this one as an oughta be, a should be, a gonna be.  We’ll find out Saturday if he’s anything more than a wanna be.

Silent Tactic

Was silenced by Renegade in Arkansas Derby but subsequent disclosures indicate this guy was battling a sore foot in that race.  Poor tactics for the connections to keep silent about that for those betting into that race.

A win by this one would not be unwelcome by YFC, who holds a $25 Derby futures ticket on this one at 19-1 odds.  Ironically, post time odds Saturday likely to be higher than that.

Potente

Trainer Bob Baffert baffled by this one.    Has already shown the potential to flop.  $2.4M purchase will require a big change in performance to allow his owners to win some of that green back.

Emerging Market

Dangerous to take a stand against any entry owned by Seth Klaravich and trained by Chad Brown.  This lightly raced one may emerge later in the year as a force in the division but for this Saturday, think Brown likely to be blue.

Pavlovian

When the bell rings, likely to be exposed as a dog.

Six Speed

Sounds like a crappy bicycle.   Likely to perform similarly.

Further Ado

Owns a valuable score over the Churchill Downs strip in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a 2 year old.  Dominant victory in the Blue Grass Stakes was only his second start this year.   Training well for Brad Cox.  A short price on Saturday but his tactical speed may be a big advantage this year.

Golden Tempo

Going to need a brisk tempo to hit the board on Saturday.   Will also need to fight for space with a horde of late closers who have shown better late kicks than this one. 

Fulleffort

One of these days trainer Brad Cox, who also trains Commandment and Further Ado, and whose horses have won more than $231 million, will have banked enough to buy himself a blue blazer that fits his barrel-shaped proportions.   Until then it looks like he borrowed Kate Moss’ blazer on his way to the winner’s circle.  

This horse certainly gives his full effort every time out. As the old saying goes, he doesn’t have to carry his track around with him.  He’s won on dirt, grass and synthetic surfaces.  A horse like that can’t be counted out.

Alternate Entries

Eligible to enter the starting gate in the order noted if entries from the main body of the field scratch.   Great White only attractive to hammerheads.   Ocelli?  Don’t buyee!  Robusta will make sure backers go bust.   Corona de Oro?  Put dos equis next to his name.  No chance.

Selections

This year’s field is dominated by horses with a late closing running style.  It’s a given that being so reliant on a clean trip means some who are expecting to be around the wire late won’t be because of traffic issues.  Of course, if Silent Tactic can be the closer that does get a clean trip YFC, as noted above, won’t be unhappy.   

Top selection here is Further Ado who has a pace pressing/stalking style that doesn’t require him to be on the lead but can sit near the leaders if they run off early.  Having savvy jockey John Velazquez aboard doesn’t hurt either.   Will be a short price so will try to create some value in the exactas and trifectas with The Puma, Commandment, Renegade, Silent Tactic and So Happy.   Good luck and hold all tickets!