By Eric Solomon
The winner of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass debuted in a $150K maiden claiming sprint race, but he has been a revelation at two turns on the dirt. He has never run a bad race in his six race career and he keeps getting better. He’s trying to become the third gelding this century (Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009) and 10th gelding overall to win the Kentucky Derby.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
He debuted in an unsuspecting $150K maiden claiming race at Keeneland last fall, finishing a game second when going six furlongs. He was overlooked by the wagering public that day, going off a 30-1. He posted a modest 58 Beyer Speed Figure, but that effort was good enough to move him up in class to maiden special weight company. Wilkes ran him at Churchill on the second Stars of Tomorrow card where he lost in another close race, but drastically improved his speed figure. He crushed a maiden field at Gulfstream at the end of December, which propelled him into the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at the beginning of February. He settled at the back of a compact field, but advanced willingly to win by almost two lengths. He beat the Florida Derby winner, Tappan Street that day. He didn’t get the best of trips in the Fountain of Youth, where he finished 4th, beaten three lengths. However, he rebounded nicely to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass in his last start, nailing East Avenue on the wire.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Liam’s Map
- Dam & Damsire: Linda (by Scat Daddy)
- Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC
- Trainer: Ian Wilkes
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Liam’s Map was a really good racehorse, but his 2015 campaign was overshadowed by the incredible season from American Pharoah that year. While I think he would have been the horse that was best suited for taking down the Triple Crown winner in that race, Pletcher opted to run him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (which he won with relative ease). He won the Woodward at nine furlongs and almost held on in a fast and thrilling Whitney that year. Horses sired by him have won 18% of the time in dirt routes over the last five years. He has sired four different Grade 1 winners. Notably, Colonel Liam was a multiple Grade 1 winner on the turf and Juju’s Map was the winner of the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades. The dam, Linda, is by Scat Daddy and was campaigned by Wilkes for Whitham Thoroughbreds. She was okay on the dirt, but she did her best work on the turf, with her best result being a Grade 2 score. Her first three foals to race were useful, but nothing compared to this colt.
Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez Jr. teamed up to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Fort Larned. Five years later, Hernandez was aboard the first and only Derby starter for Wilkes, McCracken, who finished 8th. Going into the 2024 Derby, Hernandez was 0-10, but he changed that narrative in a big way by winning both the Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and the Derby with Mystik Dan. Wilkes is a conservative trainer that will only bring a horse into the Derby if the horse belongs. I have no qualms backing this trainer/jockey combination.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Toyota Blue Grass
- Finish Position: 1st out of 7
- Final Time: 1:51.33
- Beyer Speed Figure: 96
He settled near the back of the pack after East Avenue was hard-ridden for the lead. He began to make his move in the final half-mile, steadily advancing while going wide on the turn. He came with a five wide bid and was gaining ground slowly. Once he was clear of some rivals, he shifted in a few lanes where he was able to make up enough ground to nail East Avenue on the wire. It’s worth noting that in that first week of racing at Keeneland, many horses struggled to make up ground while running in the outer lanes of that racetrack. While the pace was strong and set the table for a closer, I thought being able to get up in time while racing on the worst part of the racetrack was worth upgrading that performance.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: He’s been at his best when racing from off the pace, but he proved in his maiden win that he can be closer to the front end if the situation dictates. He figures to be coming from off the pace in the Derby and that has been just fine with him when there is an honest pace. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides this course extremely well and this is a horse that is handy enough to rally along the inside if given the opportunity. His Beyer Speed Figures continue to trend up in every start. Wilkes has kept him on a once a month racing pattern, so the 25 day gap between the Toyota Blue Grass and the Derby should not hinder him.
Concerns: When looking at Beyer Speed Figures, his last race figure was six points less than the last race figure from Journalism, and 12 points less than that’s one best speed figure. His figures have improved in every start, but if Journalism gets to run his race, he’s really going to have to take a bigger step forward than we’ve seen him make up to this point. While he’s shown versatility, he’s likely going to be in the back half of the field as they make the first turn in the Derby. Closers can certainly win the Derby, but they definitely need more racing luck than horses that have more tactical speed. Look no further than last year with Mystik Dan getting a dream trip along the rail while stalking a strong pace. Sierra Leone and Forever Young both had less than perfect trips while racing near the back of the pack, and despite getting the right setup, both came up a bit short at the wire.
Expert Opinions and Odds
I do feel that there’s a reasonable chance that this one is going to be overlooked in the wagering. Looking at the competition, I think Journalism and Sandman deserve to be shorter prices in the wagering. I think Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, and Tappan Street could be shorter prices on Derby Day because of their human connections and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sovereignty went into the gate at lower odds than him as well in the betting. By running his final prep on a Tuesday (and not a part of a national telecast), he might be flying under the mainstream radar. Currently, I’m seeing anywhere between 10-1 at the low end and 15-1 at the high end for him. I do think anywhere in that range would be solid value. I’d play him to win at 10-1 or better.
Conclusion
Even though both of his Derby Prep victories came in smaller fields where he went from last to first, I think he’s proven that he’s a versatile horse that has a fighting chance in this race, regardless of where he is placed going into the first turn. As is the case when betting any closer in the Derby, you’re going to need a fair amount of racing luck to win. However, I factored that into what price I’d be willing to accept. I see him as a win candidate for the Derby and he could be on a short list of win candidates that are paying fair market value.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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Eric,
I always see you mentioning the Beyers but do you ever look at the Thorograph at all?
Just curious.
I often look at Thorograph via the Redboard Room, especially for races where I missed the mark, to see if there might have been something that I missed. I’ll download the Derby/Oaks card next week to either confirm/refute some opinions that have about some horses that day. Truth be told, I don’t love it though. I know there are handicappers that swear by them, but I’m more comfortable with a combination of DRF, Timeform, and Racelens for the most part. I use Beyers a lot as benchmarks and starting points for handicapping a race. I try to reference them instances where I’m trying to make an educated guess on how a race is going to be bet and whether or not it could be a spot where there is fair to above average value possibilities.