Key: BF = Bad Favorite and LS = Longshot
Race 1: 1-2-7
Card kicks off with a nice 2yo baby race for the boys. #1 Hurts So Bad is a well-bred son of talented sire Violence out of a Quality Road mare. This April foal cost 120k at the sales, and should be live. The two drawbacks are the rail post and above average works, but there might me more in the tank than this one has shown in the mornings. The ones that have already run don’t really inspire. See the board for more clues.
Race 2: 2-1-6
Interesting spot for the ultra-talented, stakes-winner #2 Star of the North. 6/7 lifetime and earner of close to 240k, she’s going two turns for the first time. This is either a prep for a bigger spot or just an experiment to see if she can handle the distance. Not bred at all on either side to route, but so much faster than these it probably won’t matter. Will be 1-5.
Race 3: 4-3-2
A difficult handicapping puzzle, especially based on the murky early pace situation…just not a lot of front-runners in here at all. I’ll go with the supposed class of the race, the #4 El Centenario. Coming in from California for Diordoro off of high-% trainer Jonathon Wong, this one has been facing tougher. But, does not not show early speed and doesn’t overwhelm others by the Beyer figs.
Race 4: 2-6-4
I don’t trust anyone in here, so demand a price if you’re betting to win. And, spread big-time in your early Pick 4 too. I’ll default to the #2 Majestic Ice, but not with much confidence. Only dirt effort was a 21 Beyer, but that was against much tougher. Has been steadily improving her Beyer number on turf, but bred to handle the dirt for leading jockey Lindey Wade.
Race 5: 3-9-1
Pick 5 starts here……..ABC selections below:
Caveman Ticket: 135789 / 14 / 3679 / 8 10 / 45 ($96)
This is a tough 2yo filly race with many firsters, so take a look at the tote for better ideas. I’m very interested in #3 Heart On the Run (5-1), one of those debuting today. Only cost $3,200 at the Arizona November sale, but has many things I like. Bred to be precocious early, out of a Wild Again mare Wild Note who produced a few decent horses who raced out West. Trainer Rarick is excellent with first-time starters, too. Has been working slow, so maybe not as good as I think, but connections could have started this filly at cheaper tracks in Arizona/New Mexico if they thought this one couldn’t run much. And gets the leading rider…..hmmm….
Race 6: 4-1-3
Nice MN-maiden race going 1 mile on the dirt. A few are coming out of a common race just 10 days ago. #4 Top Dog had to break from the far outside 13-hole in a huge field that day, now moves way inside with experience under his belt. Should be better today, and hopefully show more early speed too. You know he’ll get the two turns, sire was Street Sense and out of a Sea Hero mare.
Race 7: 9-3-7 LS: 3
Very difficult to pick a winner here. #9 Haddy Up has a nice cozy outside draw with early speed, an angle I like. Just claimed by Berndt, puts Eikleberry in the saddle. Wire job coming? I do like #3 Patience Pays (9-2 ML) as a price play too. Will be closing into a potentially fast pace and goes turf to dirt. Has numbers that absolutely fit with these.
Race 8: 10-8-2
Another challenging puzzle, #10 Fair Challenge goes turf to dirt for Diodoro. Interesting jock choice in Lopez, who trainer doesn’t use too often, but he has nice stalking ability and does not need the lead. Drops and scores?
Race 9: 5-4-8
Jeez…these races on the end are tough! #5 Soulandgrace just crushed for Mdn. 25k claimer and goes in for the 7.5k tag…connections being realistic? Can show speed, but needs the right trip in this competitive field.
** Race 10 is a Quarter Horse race and therefore will not be covered in this blog. I’m off on a well-needed vacation for a few days, so the next 3 racing days, Aug. 1, 3, and 4 will not be covered here. Good luck and I’ll see you all late next week!