Like a true Minnesotan, I’m accustomed to a quick cooldown. Day 1 started with a bang and I’ve been chilly since. Here are the up-to-date results.
| Date | Track | Bet-Type | Wager | Return | ROI | Carryover | New $ Pool | Effective Takeout Index 1.00 = 0% >1.00 = Player Edge | Base Payout |
| 8/8/19 | GP | Hi 5 | $138.00 | $0.00 | 0 | $18,646.95 | $82,205.00 | 1.01 | $375.50 |
| 8/8/19 | GP | P5 | $191.00 | $4,012.90 | 21.01 | $38,054.00 | $237,918.00 | 1.01 | $3,532.15 |
| 8/8/19 | GP | Hi 5 | $50.00 | $0.00 | 0 | $2,510.00 | $15,087.00 | 0.95 | $1,044.10 |
| 8/9/19 | AP | P5 | $260.00 | $0.00 | 0 | $8,920.00 | $51,249.00 | 1.02 | $522.00 |
| 8/11/19 | LRL | P5 | $330.00 | $0.00 | 0 | $5,534.00 | $32,035.00 | 1.02 | $613.05 |
| 8/11/19 | GP | Hi 5 | $16.00 | $0.00 | 0 | $3,773.00 | $4,471.00 | 1.62 | $7,438.70 |
| 4.07 |
I updated the effective takeout numbers since last post, after noticing that the carryover dollars were not represented in the total pool on Equibase. I also changed the display of the takeout percentage and created it as an index where 1.0 represents zero takeout. Anything greater than 1.0 is to the players’ advantage. For example, 1.01 is 1% in favor of the players. In that example, if 100 new dollars were bet into the pool, 101 dollars were paid out to the players. Anything less than 1.0 represents a house edge, or less money paid out compared to the new money that went into the pool.
If you’re interested in tracking your own play and would like to incorporate the takeout index, here is the formula that I am using:
=SUM(((H2*0.78)+(G2))/H2)*1
H2 = New money into pool
G2 = carryover money
The 0.78 in the equation is a variable that needs to be updated based on the takeout percentage for the wager being tracked. In my example above, the wager is a GP Hi 5 with a 22% takeout. 1 – 0.22 = 0.78
In non-math terms the formula reads as follows, =SUM(((new pool money minus takeout)+(carryover))/New pool money before takeout)*1
After participating in 6 pools, only one has resulted in a house edge. The massive player edge shown in the 8/11/19 Hi 5 was due to a downpour before and during the race. Like others, I only dipped my toe into that deep water.
I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the number of carryover opportunities through the weekend, and I’m sure I missed a few while attending the Million Day card on Saturday. The Million card is one of a handful of big days I will deviate from the carryover-only wagering. I will track results for those non-carryover days and present them at the end of the year with the overall results. For what it’s worth, it was a fairly even day for me as I swung for the fences on the horizontals, and missed, and saved with big exotic hits in the 8th and 12th races.
Time to look ahead to the upcoming race days, where I see only one carryover worth considering; the $2,003 Hi 5 carryover at GP.
Here are my initial thoughts on the R1 wagering sequence if there are no scratches and the race remains on the turf.
#5, Venezuelan Forever is my top pick and one of the more consistent runners, but the main key will be the 20/1 ML, #3 My Gal Lollipop, into the 3rd, 4th, and 5th slot. In her last 4 starts on the GP turf, going 7 1/2f or 1m, she has finishes of 5th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, all with Jose Batista up. Those efforts have come at similar class levels, and the corresponding speed figures put her into the mix. #4 Big Darling appears to be another consistent turf runner, so she will be my final key, going into all positions. Lastly, #1 can finish no better than 3rd.
- 5/4/3/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7 – $12
- 5/4/1,2,6,7/3/1,2,6,7 – $12
- 5/4/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7/3 – $12
- 5/2,6,7/4/3/1,2,6,7 – $9
- 5/2,6,7/4/1,2,6,7/3 – $9
- 5/2,6,7/3/4/1,2,6,7 – $9
- 5/2,6,7/1,2,6,7/4/3 – $9
- 5/2,6,7/3/1,2,6,7/4 – $9
- 5/2,6,7/1,2,6,7/3/4 – $9
- Repeat above with 5 in the 2nd position – $90
If you’re looking to play something with less invested, I would consider fading the #1 completely, and keying the #3 in the 3rd and 4th positions (many will have all covered in the 5th slot).
Good luck if you’re playing!
